Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Soft Landing Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.3 -4.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .68% +4.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,793.0 +41.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.08 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.4 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.1 -.19% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +11.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 +3.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.88 -3.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 382.33 -.66%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 334.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.20 -2.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.54 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 280.16 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.42 -.15%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,047.60 -3.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 37.25 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  113.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.10 -.21%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.77 +.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.55% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -39.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +4.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.8 +2.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.3 +5.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.39 -.08:  Growth Rate +15.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.0 +.1 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +2.45% unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.10 +8.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 49.7%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.2%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 224 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.9%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.3%(-.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +89 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% net long