Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 -8.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .97% -15.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,478.0 +198.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.05 +.61%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.1 -6.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -13.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -14.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.9 -2.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.85 -1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 434.0 +1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 109.52 -3.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 214.0 basis points -11.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.35 -1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 324.65 -3.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.7 -.1%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13,467.1 +9.3%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.75 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 30.75 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 basis points +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  116.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.37 -.12%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.0 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.46% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -36.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -43.9 +13.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.5 +6.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.2 +.7 point 
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate Growth Rate +15.9% n/a

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 46.3%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.8%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 280 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 16.1%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -70.6%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +254 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/utility/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added some back
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% net long