Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• China Plans More Measures to Stabilize Economy as Recovery Slows.  
• Once Unthinkable Ideas Gain Traction to Fight UK Energy Crisis.  
• European Governments Spend $278 Billion to Cushion Energy Crisis.  
• Traders Boost ECB, BOE Rate-Hike Bets as Energy Costs Surge.  
• Tortillas Help Drive Mexico’s Inflation to New 21-Year High.  
• OPEC Nations Line Up Behind Saudi Call to Act If Necessary.
• Firm Asia Open Ahead Amid China Vow, Fed Countdown: Markets Wrap.
• Invesco Sees ‘Rude Awakening’ With Oil, Food Set to Spike Soon.
• Biden’s Student-Loan Relief Adds New Wrinkle to Inflation Debate.
  
• Opinion: Biden's Student Loan Plan Neglects Older Borrowers.
• Lockstep Markets Primed for All-or-Nothing Sweepstakes on Powell.  
• Hedge Fund Founder Och Sues Sculptor Over CEO’s ‘Ever-Escalating’ Pay.  
• California Finalizes Details on Banning Gas-Powered Car Sales.
• Morgan Stanley’s Wilson and JPMorgan’s Michele Warn About QT.  
• Anti-ESG Firm Strive Plans Four New ETFs After First Fund Draws $250 Million.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Biden Administration Moves to Strengthen DACA With a New Rule.
• Jerome Powell’s Dilemma: What if the Drivers of Inflation Are Here to Stay?
• Bed Bath & Beyond’s Challenges Linger After Loan Deal.
• Uvalde School Board to Consider Firing Police Chief.
• A School Board Revolt in Florida. Candidates endorsed by Gov. DeSantis win to control two big districts.
• The Half-Trillion-Dollar Student-Loan Executive Coup. Biden’s student-loan write-off is an abuse of power that favors college grads at the expense of plumbers and FedEx drivers.
• Big Oil to Investors: You’re Too Pessimistic.
• Over 2 Million Americans Aren’t Working Due to "Long Covid".

Fox News:

• White House has no answer about whose tab Biden's $300,000,000,000 student loan handout is going on.
• Biden student loan handout could worsen inflation crisis, analysis shows.
• Ex-Obama adviser rips Biden's student loan handout.

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Snowflake, Nvidia, Salesforce and more.
• Nvidia says gaming market conditions are ‘challenging,’ Q3 forecast misses.
• Amazon is shutting down its telehealth service, Amazon Care.
• Here’s what President Biden’s student loan forgiveness means for your taxes..
• Salesforce trims full-year expectations for earnings and revenue.
• Snowflake shares soar following revenue beat.
• Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years last month – and it was the biggest drop since 2011.

MarketWatch:        

• A majority of adults are worried about the possibility of a recession by the end of 2023 — and say they’re not financially prepared.
  
• These 10 stocks matter the most to hedge funds right now.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden White House Directly Facilitated FBI Mar-A-Lago Raid.
• "Tsunami Of Shutoffs": 1 In 6 US Homes Are Behind On Power Bills.
• Cops Shut Down 8-Year-Old Girl's Lemonade Stand To Protect Society From Unlicensed Lemonade.
• 2nd Round Of US Airstrikes Over Syria As Militias Fire Rockets On Occupied Gas Fields.
• California DA Admits 70% Of Suspects Released On $0 Bail Committed New Crimes.
• Mexican Journalist Shot Dead Hours After Publishing Story On 43 Missing Students.
• US stocks gained but with upside capped by mixed data and pre-Jackson Hole positioning - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Early Investors In Texas Shale Are Now Reaping The Benefits Of Sticking With Their Bet.
• Could Poor Coffee Harvests Send Prices Even Higher?
• Chicago Public Schools' Radical Agenda Gets Uglier: 'Equity' Video Promotes Looting & Burning.
• Hedge Funds Boosted Tech Holdings And Cut Leverage As Portfolio Concentration Hit All Time Highs, Goldman Finds.
• More Billions To Ukraine As America Falls Apart.
• Bonds sold as markets position for hawkish Powell in Wyoming - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Peter Schiff: Somebody Has To Pay For Student Loan Forgiveness.
• Stocks & Bond Yields Jump As Hawknado Holds Ahead Of J-Hole.
• Home Price Drops In Pandemic Boomtowns Could Be First Sign Of Coming Real Estate Turmoil.
• Penn Medical School Expands Minority-Candidate Program That Does Not Require MCAT.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Democrats And MSM Run Brutal Smear Campaign Against US Senate Candidate Herschel Walker For Lying About Working With Law Enforcement – Then Cops That Worked With Him Dismantled The Fake News.
• Whistleblower Claims FBI Leadership Told Bureau Employees Not to Look at Hunter Biden’s Laptop From Hell.
• “Someone Needs to Grab that Little Elf and Chuck Him Across the Potomac” – DeSantis Tees Off on Fauci (VIDEO).
• Biden Claims Canceling Student Loan Debt Won’t Have Any “Meaningful Effect on Inflation” (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: Illegal Aliens Take Taxpayer-Paid Vacations to San Diego Courtesy of DHS.
• “The People’s Republic of China Is Preparing to Go to War, and It Is Not Trying to Hide Its Efforts” – Chinese Expert Gordon Chang.
•   JUST IN: Quadruple Vaxxed Jill Biden Infected with Covid AGAIN in ‘Rebound’ Case After Taking Paxlovid.
• California to Ban Sale of New Gas-Powered Cars – All Electric Vehicles in Next Decade.
• Election Integrity: Alabama ES&S Voting Machines Accepted *XEROXED* Ballots During Machine Testing.
• Dennis Rodman Says He is No Longer Going to Russia After State Dept Urged Him Not to Interfere in Brittney Griner Case.
  

The Epoch Times:

• US ‘Heavily Dependent’ on China for Rare Earth Elements: Experts.
  
• China Censors ‘Minions’ Ending; Expert Says Hollywood Under Pressure to ‘Kowtow’ to CCP.
• China’s Economy Is on the Ropes.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 857,343 Reports(+5,974 from prior week) Through August 12th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.5 -6.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 70.0 -4.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.72 +.02%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 43.40 -.37%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.28 +1.0 basis point
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.3 -.16%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANF)/.23
• (BURL)/.21
• (DG)/2.94
• (DLTR)/1.62
• (FRO)/.20
• (HAIN)/.18
• (HIBB)/2.16
• (PTON)/-.77
• (TITN)/.70
• (TD)/2.04
  

After the Close:

• (AFRM)/-.73
• (DELL)/1.64
• (GPS)/-.02
• (MRVL)/.56
• (ULTA)/4.96
• (VMW)/1.58
• (WDAY)/./80
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 252K versus 250K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1441K versus 1437K prior.
• 2Q GDP revisions.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Aug. is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 13.0 in July.

Upcoming Splits

• (TSLA) 3-for-1
• (NDAQ) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German IFO Index, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.