Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               

• Singapore’s Next Premier Wong Warns US, China May ‘Sleepwalk Into Conflict’.
• Uruguay Lifts Interest Rate to 10.25%, Sees More Hikes Ahead.  
• Stocks in Asia Set for Cautious Open, Crude Slides: Markets Wrap.
• ‘Dr. Doom’ Roubini Sees Either US Hard Landing or Uncontrolled Inflation.
• The Fed’s Past Crises Hold Secrets to Tackling Future Recessions.  
• BofA Says Quantitative Tightening Would Shave 7% Off S&P 500.
• US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007.
• Apple Sets Return-to-Office Deadline of Sept. 5 After Covid Delays.
• CEOs Blame Remote Workers for Slow Sales, Earnings Shortfalls.
• Citadel Securities Trading Revenue Hits Record $4.2 Billion.  
• Biggest US Real Estate Brokerage Braces for Its First Housing Downturn.  
• Royal Caribbean Pays More Than 11% on Bond to Refinance Debt.

Wall Street Journal:    

• The ESG Investing Backlash Arrives. State AGs seek answers from BlackRock, and a new firm offers alternative investments funds. Strive’s first fund raised more than $100 million in a week.
• Record Numbers of Migrants Cross Southern Border, With Two Million Annual Total in Sight.
• Wall Street Deal Making Faces Greater Scrutiny Under FTC’s Khan.
• Disney Urged by Activist to Spin Off ESPN, Buy Hulu.
• China’s Xi Jinping Economic Slump. The country is paying for the Communist Party chief’s policy mistakes.

Fox News:

• White teachers first on the chopping block during potential layoffs.
• Controversial woke DA responds after recall effort suffers major setback.

CNBC.com:

• Stores and suppliers clash over price hikes as shoppers hit by sticker shock.
• Apple tells employees to be in office three times a week starting in September.
• Homebuilders say U.S. is in a ‘housing recession’ as sentiment turns negative.

MarketWatch:       

• FAA warns staffing shortage will delay flights around New York City.

Zero Hedge:

• CBO: Actually, The "Inflation Reduction Act" Will Cause More Audits For Working Class.
• DOJ Opposes Release Of Underlying Affidavit For FBI Mar-A-Lago Raid.
• The "Big Short" Michael Burry Liquidates Entire Portfolio, Holds Just One Stock At End Of Q2.
• Former White House Chief-Of-Staff Never Witnessed 'Intentional Destruction Of Important Papers'.
• The FBI Is Now The Federal Bureau Of Intimidation.
• Less underweight.
• Foreigners Sold A Record Amount Of US Stocks In The Last 12 Months, China Dumped More USTs In June.
• US stocks notched mild gains led by growth and tech as yields declined on a worrisome NY Fed Manufacturing survey - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "The Next Leg Lower Is Coming": Mike Wilson Says Stocks Have Already Discounted The Fed Pivot Which Is Probably Not Even Coming.
• Orwellian Moments Abound.
• Top US Cruise Lines Cancel Sailings Amid Labor Shortage.
• Dollar gains on global growth woes after a slew of negative impulses - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Nomura Warns This Week's OpEx Is "Real": Massive Amount Of Delta Could Spark "De-Risking Flow".
• Bonds & Stocks Soar After Dismal Data Dump.

 Newsmax:

• DOJ Opposes Revealing Evidence Supporting Search of Trump's Home.  
• Rep. Biggs: FBI Crossed 'Rubicon' With Trump Raid.
• Rep. Hice: FBI Raid an 'Enormous Overstep'.  
• Mo. AG: GOP Needs 'Wrecking Ball' for Administrative State.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• WHO IS JOHN DOE?… Mysterious, Anonymous Power Broker is Attempting to Block Gateway Pundit from Accessing Epstein Client List.
• JUST IN: Gascón Dodges Recall After Los Angeles County Bans Observers From Monitoring Recall Vote Count.
• Taliban Celebrates at Abandoned US Embassy with US Weapons and Humvees on the One-Year Anniversary of Fall of Kabul Under Joe Biden (VIDEO).
• “Next Question” – Corrupt Democrat Raskin When Asked How Biden’s ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will Actually Lower Inflation (VIDEO).
• CIA Director Burns Was Surrounded by Communists in His Prior Job, Joins Prior CIA Directors and Obama Lackeys with Ties to Communists.
• Georgia County That “Found” 2600 Votes for Trump in Nov. 2020 is **MISSING** Election Day Log Files.
• DEVELOPING: Giuliani Says He is a Target of Criminal Investigation in Georgia Election Probe.
• 26-Year-Old Neurosurgeon Dies in July, Making Seven Canadian Doctors to Die in Two Weeks.
• Quadruple Vaxxed Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Catches COVID for Second Time.
• Confirmed: At Least 20 Undercover FBI and ATF Were Embedded at Capitol on Jan. 6 Along with Several Undercover Capitol Police Agents.
• Quadruple Vaxxed Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla Catches Covid One Year After Claiming His Vaccine Was 100% Effective in Preventing Covid.
• MUST SEE VIDEO: Election Hack Identified that Can Instantaneously Swap Votes on a Ballot Before It Is Even Stored.
• OH NO, NANCY! Pelosi Secretly Met Taiwan Chip Manufacturer – Pelosi’s Son Is 2nd Largest Stakeholder in China Related Company – But “Absolutely” No Business Was Discussed?
  

The Epoch Times:

• ‘End CCP’ Rally Warns of Communist Infiltration, Subversion.
• China Stages More ‘Combat Drills’ Near Taiwan During US Lawmakers’ Visit.
• Lockdown Continues in Xinjiang and Tibet Amid Omicron Surge.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 854,081 Reports(+2,712 from prior week) Through August 5th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.75 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 71.75 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.50 -.04%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,672.0 +24.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.4 +.9%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (HD)/4.93
• (LITE)/1.33
• (ONON)/.04
• (SE)/-1.06
• (WMT)/1.60
  

After the Close:

• (A)/1.21
• (JKHY)/1.00
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1527K versus 1559K in June.
• Building Permits for July is estimated to fall to 1640K versus 1685K in June.  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.2% decline in June.
• Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 80.2% versus 80.0% in June.
• Manufacturing Production for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA Minutes, weekly US retail sales reports, (JNPR) fireside chat and the Deutsche Bank Transportation Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by material and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.