Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Japan’s Households Spend Less as Higher Inflation Bites.  
• Pubs and Restaurants Hit by 15% Inflation in UK Food Costs.  
• UK Opens Oil and Gas Licensing Round as Energy Crisis Grows.
• Samsung Profit Sinks 32% as Memory Chip Downturn Worsens.   
• Economists See Argentina Inflation Surpassing 100% by December. 
• Asia Stocks Fall in Early Trade Ahead of Jobs Data: Markets Wrap
• Oil Poised for Biggest Weekly Rally Since March on OPEC+ Move.
• Twitter Trial Against Musk Is Halted to Allow Deal to Close.  
• Tesla Shares Take Hit on Risk That Musk Must Sell to Buy Twitter.
• ESPN Nears Large New Partnership With DraftKings.  
• Mississippi River Drought Forces Goods to Pricier Rail, Trucks.
• Mester Says No Evidence to Support Slowing Pace of Fed Rate Hikes.  
• Fed Officials Keep Hammering Hawkish Message on Rates Heading Up.
• Even After $100 Billion, Self-Driving Cars Are Going Nowhere.  
• San Francisco’s Office-Vacancy Rate Tops 25% as Tenants Depart.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden, Venezuela and the Oil Dictators. This Administration wants more oil anywhere except in America.
• Germany Finally Says the F-Word: ‘Fracking’. A country used to buying gas elsewhere suddenly remembers there’s a lot in the ground at home.
• At Least 36 Dead in Thailand Child-Care Center Shooting.
• Ukraine’s Appeal for Longer-Range Missiles Presents Fresh Test of U.S. Support.
• Russian Men Flee to Alaska to Escape Draft.
• TikTok Parent ByteDance Sees Losses Swell in Push for Growth.
• Fed Officials Say Stubborn Inflation Justifies Rate Rises.
• Levi Posts Small Sales Increase Amid Supply-Chain Challenges.
• IMF to Lower Global Growth Forecast.
• Florida Businesses Can’t Require Covid Vaccine Proof, Court Rules.

Fox News:

• WATCH:Kanye blasts 'godless' media and addresses 'White Lives Matter' shirt in Tucker Carlson interview.
• Battery-powered cars are exploding from water damage after Hurricane Ian.

CNBC.com:

• Musk must complete Twitter deal by Oct. 28 to avoid trial, judge rules.
• AMD warns of third-quarter revenue shortfall on weaker PC demand, supply chain issues.
• Bitcoin hovers around $20,000, and Celsius execs pulled out crypto before collapse: CNBC Crypto World.
  

MarketWatch:                 

• What Friday’s jobs report means for stocks. Investors shouldn’t expect a break from the market whiplash, say strategists.
  
• DraftKings stock jumps on report of partnership with ESPN.
  
• A recession is coming fast, Titan chairman says, and stock market is acting ‘a little crazy right now’.  
• Dashed hopes for a Fed pivot are morphing into a sense of dread in financial markets.  
• Biden official says ban on gasoline exports still on the table, as White House responds to OPEC+ supply cut.

Zero Hedge:

• Hundreds Of Thousands Of Americans Sought Medical Care After COVID-19 Vaccination: CDC Data.
• Global Trade Forecast 'Darkens' On Central Bank Tightening, Inflation, Ukraine War.
• DACA Ruled Illegal After Appeals Court Cites 'Severe Deficiencies'.
• Most Americans In Over 25 Years Suffer 'Real' Pay Cut Under Biden Admin; Fed Report Shows.
• Democrats Attack Lake As 'Extremist' As 2024 Republicans Flock To Her.
• Air Force Scrambles Jets After North Korea Flies 12 Warplanes Near Inter-Korean Border.
• Washington Gave $28M To Chinese Entities For Joint Research Since 2015: Report.
• Feds Have Enough Evidence To Slap Hunter Biden With Tax, Gun Charges: WaPo.
• Democrat-Led Texas Border Town Busses Migrants To New York.
• US stocks and bonds declined amid a firmer dollar and higher yields after further hawkish Fed rhetoric - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• AMD Tumbles After Catastrophic Preannouncement, Drags Down Chip Sector.
• Are we decoupling from rates?
• China's Zero-COVID Madness Hammers 'Golden Week' For Tourism, Shopping.
• Dollar bid while Stocks and Treasuries sold ahead of pivotal NFP - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• US Gasoline Demand Unexpectedly Soars To Highest In Five Years As Inventories Crater.
• Shoplifting In California Is Out Of Control Due To Zero Consequences: District Attorney.
• Are Retail Investors Done? Biggest Liquidation Since 2020 As Retail Is Now 'Selling The Rally'.
• Bonds & Stocks Falter On Flood Of FedSpeak, Payrolls Paranoia.

Newsmax:  

• Feds Believe They Have Enough to Charge Hunter Biden With Tax, Gun Crimes.
• House Candidates: 'National Shift' of Hispanics to GOP.
• Energy Alliance Head: Open Drilling, Not US Reserves.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Conservative Latinos Once Voted For Dems — Recent Polling Shows a 65 Point Swing to Republicans.
• Tony Fauci Defends Funding of Dr. Daszak and EcoHealth to Continue Their Bat Research in Southeast Asia.
• WATCH LIVE: 6 PM MST – Arizona’s US Senate Debate Between Trump-Endorsed Blake Masters And Biden Backing Mark Kelly.
• HILARIOUS AUDIO: Democrat Gubernatorial Nominee Katie Hobbs Struggles To Name One Thing She’s Learned From The Hispanic Community At Embarrassing Hispanic Townhall Event.
• It’s Definitely Election Time: Joe Biden to Pardon all Federal Marijuana Offenses – New Rule Affects a Total of ZERO Individuals in Federal Prison.
• Democrat Fetterman, Who Lived Off of Mommy and Daddy Until He Was 50, Kept a Light Schedule as PA Lt. Gov – Didn’t Show Up to Work.
• It’s Happening: Alaska Borough Bans Voting Machines for All Future Elections.
• Catholic Mother Arrested In England in Front of Her Children Over Anonymous Posts on Chat Room and Twitter Posts.
• US Army Releases New and Insane Strategic Plan to ‘Mitigate the Key Effects of Climate Change’.
• FIGHTING BACK: State Treasurer Withdraws Nearly $800 Million in Funds From BlackRock Over Leftist “ESG” Efforts.
  

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Runs Police Outpost in New York City, Part of Global Network of Transnational Repression: Report.
• UN Votes Down Debate on Uyghurs After CCP Lobbying.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 871,837 Reports(+4,210 from prior week) Through September 23rd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 180.25 +9.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 100.0 +2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.18 -.04%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.87 +.62%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.04 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.82 -.08%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.38%.

• S&P 500 futures -.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated to fall to 250K versus 315K in Aug.
• The Unemployment Rate for Sept. is estimated at 3.7% versus 3.7% in Aug.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -1.4% decline in July.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Aug. is estimated to rise to $25.0B versus $23.811B in July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Data report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the day.