Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• Blinken Says China Wants to Seize Taiwan on ‘Much Faster Timeline’.  
  
• Yen Traders on Alert for Intervention as Currency Extends Slide.
  
• UK Consumers Rein In Luxury Spending as Energy Bills Rise 48%.
• Asian Stocks to Rise After UK Reversal, S&P Rally: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher as Tight Supply Vies With Slowdown Concerns.
• Forecast for Recession in Next 12 Months Hits 100% in Blow to Biden.
  
• Mark Mobius Warns US Interest Rates Will Hit 9% If Inflation Persists.
• Bear Market in US Stocks Still in Its Infancy Versus History.
• Credit Suisse Mulls US Asset-Management Sale, Meissner to Exit.
• California to End Covid-19 Emergency in Shift Back to Normal.  
• The Extraordinary Rise and Fall of the Covid Billionaires.  
• US Regulators Probing Bankrupt Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital.

Wall Street Journal:

• Xi Jinping’s Ideological Ambition Darkens China’s Economic Prospects.
• Heard on the Street: Funding Worries Are Hitting Some Banks More Than Others.
• Chinese Leader Urges Tech Self-Reliance.
• Kyiv Hit by Drone Attacks as Russia Targets Infrastructure.

Fox News:

• Saudi prince makes 'jihad' threat after Biden warns of 'consequences' following oil production decision.
• Ghislaine Maxwell comes clean about the 'greatest mistake' of her life.
• Singer dead at 41 after collapsing during performance in Paris.

CNBC.com:

• Why smartphones are getting cheaper while everything else is skyrocketing, according to the CPI.
• Apple to launch a foldable iPad rather than iPhone in 2024, analyst predicts.
• Mississippi River water woes, retail overstock trailers: Latest supply chain stresses for economy.
• Trucking company XPO releases some quarterly results ahead of brokerage spinoff.
  

MarketWatch:          

• Investor demand for energy stocks will soon increase ‘dramatically,’ analyst says.  
• One of Wall Street’s biggest bulls just cut their year-end S&P 500 target to 4,000.  
• ‘Material risk’ looms over stocks as investors face bear market’s ‘second act,’ warns Morgan Stanley.  
• Bitcoin-linked funds are hurting as crypto prices tank.

Zero Hedge:

• Boston University Creates COVID Strain With 80% Mortality In Mice. 
• Central Bank Digital Currencies Would Let Governments Control What People Spend Money On: IMF Official Admits.
• Will James Comey & Robert Mueller Be Prosecuted For Lies John Durham Uncovered?
• 'They Will Come After You': GOP Attack Ads Warn Of Weaponized IRS.
• Watch: 'Real Life Grand Theft Auto' On Chicago Highway As Man With Rifle Hijacks Car.
• Hiding Hunter's Laptop: "Right Out Of The Soviet Playbook".
• States Seek To Depose Fauci, Other Top Officials In Big Tech–Government Censorship Case.
• US stocks rallied amid UK fiscal U-turn and encouraging US bank earnings - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Trump Beats Biden In 2024 Hypothetical And Barely Anyone Cares About Jan. 6: Harvard Poll.
• Japanese Jawboning Won't Stop Yen's "Explosive" Downward Spiral From Testing 150/Dollar.
• Extreme Cold May Trigger Power Blackouts Across New England.
• Sell low, buy high.
• The Trump Subpoena: Why The Jan 6 Committee's Timing Is Both Terrible And Telling.
• What Everybody Knows No Longer Matters.
• Dollar slides amid risk rally after UK's fiscal U-turn - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks Soar On Big Negative Delta Squeeze (Or Because "Our Economy Is Strong As Hell"?).

Newsmax:    

• Democrats' Fixation on Abortion Sending Independent Women to GOP.
• Rep. Cline: Americans 'Feeling the Heat' of High Inflation.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• FLASHBACK: Will Dangerous Wuhan Institute of Virology Experiments Now be Done in Downtown Boston?
• BREAKING BIG: EcoHealth Whistleblower Dr. Andrew Huff Provides Evidence that COVID-19 Was Created in Wuhan Lab – Worked for and Reported to Dr. Daszak at EcoHealth.
• Canadian Doctor Urges Canadian Medical Association to Investigate the Unusual Death of 80 Young Doctors Since Vaccine Rollout – 800% Above Baseline/Expected Number.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Accidentally Admits Joe Biden’s Tax-and-Spend Policies Created Inflation Crisis (VIDEO).
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: New Evidence Suggests Konnech’s Eugene Yu was at the Very Least Affiliated with China’s Largest Election Firm with Direct Ties to US Cities.
• Press Conference Tomorrow: Risking Careers, Active-Duty Military Officers Will Call For an End to Unlawful DOD Vaccine Mandates.
  

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Goal Is Total Dominance:’ Republican Lawmakers React to Xi’s Speech, Taiwan Remarks.
• Almost 1 Million People in Chinese City Near iPhone Factory Under Lockdown.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 880,882 Reports(+5,890 from prior week) Through October 7th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 209.75 +4.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 115.25 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.48 +.06%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.9 +.54%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.31 +10.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.6 -1.0%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%.

• S&P 500 futures +.75%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.81%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACI)/.65
• (GS)/7.51
• (HAS)/1.60
• (HTLD)/.31
• (JNJ)/2.49
• (LMT)/6.62
• (STT)/1.78
• (TFC)/1.23
  

After the Close:

• (IBKR)/.95
• (ISRG)/1.12
• (JBHT)/2.46
• (NFLX)/2.17
• (OMC)/1.71
• (PNFP)/1.90
• (UAL)/2.28
  

Economic Releases

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in Aug.
• Capacity Utilization for Sept. is estimated at 80.0% versus 80.0% in Aug.
• Manufacturing Production for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 43.0 versus 46.0 in Sept.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China GDP report, weekly US retail sales reports and the (ADBE) analyst meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.