Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• China’s Pain From Deflating Housing Bubble Will Linger for Years
• Shanghai Covid Cases Jump to Three-Month High as Schools Close.
• Taiwan Urges Calm on TSMC, Downplays Impact of Biden Chip Rules.  
• UK Estate Agents Turn Pessimistic Seeing Drop in House Prices. 
• Yen Falls to 24-Year Low as Kuroda Vows Loose Policy.
• Global Equities Fluctuate Ahead of Key US CPI Data: Markets Wrap.   
• Price-Setting Talks for Russian Oil Cap Plan Set to Start.
• Oil Halts Tumble as Slowdown Concerns Offset OPEC Supply Cuts.
• Fed Officials Worry About the Risks of Doing Too Little on Inflation.  
• Fed’s Bowman Sees Sizable Hikes on Table Unless Inflation Falls.  
• Americans Will Pay the Most in 25 Years to Stay Warm This Winter.    
• Biden’s ‘Slight’ Recession Would Mean Economic Pain for Millions.  
• Applied Materials Cuts Forecast, Blaming China Export Curbs.
• LA City Councilmember Democrat Nury Martinez Resigns After Racist Comments.   
• Hedge Fund Managers Paid for Stockpicking Genius Aren’t Showing Much of It.  
• Yellen Worries Over Loss of ‘Adequate Liquidity’ in Treasuries. 
• Ex-Fed Official Clarida Sees Rates Staying in 4.5%-5% Range for ‘Long Time’.
• Boaz Weinstein Predicts Years of Market Worry: ‘We’re in a Fog’.  
• US Will Nearly Double Temporary Visas for Nonagricultural Jobs.
• Seven Senate Races Will Make or Break Biden’s Agenda.
• Local TV Stations Are Cleaning Up on Political Advertising This Election Season.

Wall Street Journal:

• TikTok Parent Sets Sights on Spotify With Expanded Music Service.
• How Ukrainian Strategy Is Running Circles Around Russia’s Lumbering Military.
• U.S. Suppliers Halt Operations at Top Chinese Memory Chip Maker.
• U.K. Pension Funds Rush to Raise Cash.
• Who Blew Up Britain’s Pension Funds? A crisis probably was inevitable after a decade of too-low interest rates.
• California to Doctors: Agree With Us or Shut Up. The state empowers a medical board to punish ‘misinformation.’ 
• Fed Minutes Show Concerns of More Persistent High Inflation.
• ACT Test Scores Drop to Lowest Levels in More Than 30 Years.

CNBC.com:

• Fed officials expect higher rates to stay in place, meeting minutes show.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Digital World, Victoria’s Secret and more.
  

MarketWatch:       

• When will mortgage rates go down? Brace yourself, economists warn house hunters that rates of 7% may be the ‘new normal.’.
  
• Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ is flashing a warning that stocks could be about to fall off a cliff. 
  
• AMC stock sinks to pre-‘meme stock’ levels as B. Riley slashes price target by 32%.
  
• Nvidia, Intel gaming cards go on sale while AMD teases Nov. 3 announcement.  
• Opinion: The stock market is in trouble. That’s because the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’.  
• Utilities slump into bear market as defensive sector suffers historically steep selloff.  
• Why questions are swirling about who will buy more than $31 trillion of U.S. debt — and at what price.  
• This is what stock-market investors will be watching for in Thursday’s CPI report after wholesale inflation rises.

Zero Hedge:

• The Fed Is Now Paying $500 Million To A Handful Of Banks Every Day, And Suddenly Has A Very Big Problem.
• Pfizer Exec Admits Under Oath: 'We Never Tested COVID Vaccine Against Transmission'.
• Biden "Actively Pushing Us To Brink Of A Nuclear Holocaust": Tulsi Gabbard Goes Off In Tucker Interview. 
• All Global Energy Infrastructure At Risk After This "Most Dangerous Precedent": Putin. 
• US Imports Sink In September, Suffer Steepest Drop Since 2020 Lockdowns.
• IMF Draws Up Nightmare Scenario Of Housing Crisis.
• Tulsi Gabbard To Stump For GOP Candidate A Day After Leaving Democratic Party.
• Pre CPI zzzztress.
• US stocks finished slightly lower after hot PPI data and mixed FOMC Minutes - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "What Hell's Like" - Jury Orders Alex Jones To Pay Sandy Hook Families, FBI Agent $1 Billion.
• Hours Before Decrying "Horrifying Images", Biden DHS Head Was Told Border Agents Did Not Whip Haitian Migrants.
• NYT Fluffs Biden, Says Lies Are "Folksy".
• Apple To Strip Workers In Its Unionized Store From Generous Employee Perks.
• WTI Holds Losses After Big Crude, Gasoline Build.
• Stocks and yields lower after mixed Fed minutes ahead of US CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Everything's Fixed... Except What's Broken.
• Markets Tread Water Ahead Of CPI Chaos, Shrug Off Hawkish Minutes.

Newsmax:  

• Tehran Turnabout: US Says Iran Nuclear Deal Is 'Not Our Focus Right Now'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BIDEN ECONOMY: Mortgage Rates Rise to 16 Year Highs – Annual Home Sales Slump by 39%.
• “The UK Financial Crisis is Getting Worse” – George Gammon.
• Montgomery County Schools Share Data Claiming 582% Increase in Gender Nonconforming Students.
• Newly Sworn In Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Says Unvaxxed People the ‘Most Discriminated Against Group that I’ve Ever Witnessed in my Lifetime’.
• BREAKING: Arizona PBS To Defy The Arizona Clean Elections Commission, Allow Katie Hobbs One-On-One Interview In Place Of Debate – Kari Lake Releases ‘Statement On PBS’ Betrayal’.
• HATE HOAX: Author of Social Media Threat Proclaiming White Power And Threatening Murder Spree Against Blacks at County Fair Identified As Black Teen.
• FDA Authorizes Moderna and Pfizer Updated Booster Shots Against Omicron for Kids as Young as 5 to 11.
• Update: Colorado Secretary of State Says 30,000 Noncitizens Received Voter Registration Notices Due to ‘Database Glitch’ Related to List of Residents with Driver’s Licenses.
• Excess Mortality Rate Increased by 16% More than Average in EU Countries with High Vaccination Rate (VIDEO).
• Freedom Caucus Calls On GOP To Delay Defense Bill If Vaccine Mandate Not Repealed.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China Called ‘Most Consequential’ Challenge in Biden’s National Security Strategy.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 877,727 Reports(+5,890 from prior week) Through September 30th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 199.0 -1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 109.5 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.25 -.07%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.50 +.18%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.27 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.8 +.04%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures +.35%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BLK)/7.41
• (CMC)/2.23
• (DAL)/1.54
• (DPZ)/2.98
• (FAST)/.48
• (HTLD)/.31
• (PGR)/1.30
• (TSM)/10.37
• (WBA)/10.77
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
• The CPI YoY for Sept. is estimated to rise +8.1% versus an +8.3% gain in Aug.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Sept.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 219K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1365K versus 1361K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, Germany CPI report, 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (VSCO) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the day.