Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Emerging Stocks Are Flashing a 2008 Financial Crisis Signal. 
• China Is Doubling Down on Coal Despite Its Green Ambitions.
• GOP Leader Pledges China Investigation If Republicans Win House.  
• Credit Suisse Is Said to Tap 20 Banks for Capital Increase.  
• UK Bond Turmoil Aftermath Has Plenty to Keep Traders on Edge.
• Follow Updates as Lula Wins Brazil’s Presidency.
• A Stock Investor’s Guide to Brazil’s Presidential Runoff Vote.  
• Turkey, UN Try to Save Ukraine Grain Export Deal as Russia Quits.
• The World’s Food Security Is at Stake as Russia Exits Grain Deal.
• European Moves to Cap Gas Prices Are Hypocritical, Qatar Says.   
• Oil Set for Monthly Gain Before OPEC+ Begins Cutting Output.
• Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March.  
• Job Markets Are Defying Central Bankers’ Efforts to Cool Demand.
  
• Inflation, Economy Are Top of Mind for US Voters in Midterm Poll.   
• Musk Lays Groundwork for Layoffs at Twitter, Asking Managers to Draw Up Lists.  
• Jittery Stock Traders Eye Four Days That Will Sow Market’s Fate.

Wall Street Journal:

• Foxconn Grapples With Covid Chaos Inside Chinese iPhone Plant.
• Rate Squeeze Hurts Once-Triumphant Tech Stocks.
• Rocky Treasury-Market Trading Rattles Wall Street.
• Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Rates for Longer.
• South Korea Halloween Tragedy Claims Mostly Young Revelers.
• Americans Take Ketamine at Home for Depression With Little Oversight.
• Steel Companies’ Profits Hurt by Falling Prices.

Fox News:

• Musk mocks Twitter's HR for sending 'mandatory' course requirement. 
• School board director who encouraged riots, called cops 'pigs' is 'important voice,' district says.

CNBC:

• EU urges Russia to revoke Ukraine Black Sea grain deal suspension.
• Top Wall Street analysts say buy these stocks amid market uncertainty.
• The diesel market is in a perfect storm as prices surge, supply dwindles ahead of winter.
• Big Tech falters on dreary earnings and forecasts — Meta has worst week ever, Amazon tumbles 13%. 

Zero Hedge:

• 'Seems A Bit Odd' - Hillary 'Fact Checked' As Doubts Mount Over Pelosi Attack Claims.
• Left-Wing Lula Narrowly Wins Brazilian Presidency, Biden Quickly Praises "Free, Fair, & Credible Elections".
• US Hospitals On Track For Worst Financial Year In Decades. 
• Even Wile E. Coyote Didn't Hurt Himself On Purpose.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Financial And Political Leadership: An Embarrassing Shadow Of Its Former Self.
• What Happens When Inflation Hits 8%... And What Must Happen For Inflation To Fall.
• West Urges Russia To Reverse Grain Deal Suspension: 'Stop Weaponizing Food'.
• "Scariest Halloween Of My Life": 146 Dead In South Korea After Crowd Crushing Incident.
• Why Illinois Is In Trouble – 132,188 Public Employees With $100,000+ Paychecks Cost Taxpayers $17 Billion.
• $2 Quadrillion Debt Precariously Resting On $2 Trillion Gold.
• Wall Street's Biggest Bear: The Bear Market Will Be Over In The First Quarter.
• 2020 Census "Errors" Affect Elections, Aid Blue States, Hurt Red States.
• Halloween: Seven Spooktacular Charts In A Scary Year For Markets.
• Radical Gender Ideology Invades Small-Town Schools.
• Yuan Depreciation Won’t Help China Exports.
• World Series Errors: Watch As Eric Burton Flubs Anthem Lyrics.
• Gitmo's Oldest Detainee Freed After 20 Years With No Charges.
• Turley: Sen. Bob Mendez Is Reportedly Under Investigation For Corruption... Again.
• U.S. LNG Cannot Replace The Russian Natural Gas That Europe Has Lost.

NewsMax:

• Biden Faces Dangerous New Era With China's Empowered Xi.
• Admiral: China May Invade Taiwan This Year.  
• Nearly 250K Ballots Sent to Pa. Voters With Unverified IDs.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• NBC News: David DePape ‘Was Able to Get into the Pelosi Bedroom Where Paul Pelosi Was’; Third Person Was in Home. 
• Excerpts from the Paul Pelosi Story Elon Musk Tweeted and Then Took Down.
• Iranian Celebrity Chef Mehrshad Shahidi Beaten to Death By Security Forces During Hijab Protest.
• Shock Poll: Nearly Eight of Ten Americans Believe Country Is “Out of Control”; Independents Break Hard to GOP. 
• BREAKING: Socialist Criminal and Globalist Favorite Lula de Silva Defeats Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil Presidential Election — SOUTH AMERICA GOES SOCIALIST.
• Medical Examiner-Coroner Claims Fully Vaccinated Body Builder Who Suffered from Cardiovascular Disease Died of a COVID-19 Infection, Not the COVID-19 Vaccine.
• Rep. Roy and Colleagues Call on Republican Leadership to Investigate CDC’s Politicized COVID-19 Child Vaccine Vote.
• California Man Gets 3 Years for SITTING in Mike Pence’s Chair – But Another J-6 Protester Is Free After Sitting in Pelosi’s Office and Making a Call… Why Is That?
• EXCLUSIVE: Two Far-Right Websites Attributed to David DePape to Smear Conservatives Were FABRICATED – They Were Created Friday and Deleted Saturday.
• Were They Fighting Over Politics in Their Underwear? Democrats Create Bogus Websites to Label David DePape as a Conservative Hours After Arrest – What’s the Real Story?
• Rep. Eric Swalwell Is Campaigning For Democrat With Ties to Org That Produced His Chinese Spy ‘Friend’ Christine Fang.
• WATCH: Kari Lake Rally with Blake Masters, Mercedes Schlapp, and Ric Grenell.
• Massive Crowd at Lee Zeldin for Governor Rally with Ron DeSantis in Long Island, New York.
• Joe Biden Presents Form of ID as He Cast Ballot in Delaware For Midterms (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Unbearable Conditions for Foxconn Employees Isolated by COVID-19 Outbreak.
• Michael Pillsbury: How US Government Agencies Secretly Aided Communist China’s Rise.

Twitter:

• @songpinganq - Tens of thousands of Chinese iPhone workers are fleeing their factory for life , on foot, in the deep night. They are denied any transportations because Chinese government remotely switched their health App to code yellow. (video) BREAKING: Hungry Chinese iPhone factory workers fighting for food now. (video) 
• @IAPolls2022 - NEW: @PolymarketHQ Gov Odds: AZ (R) Lake — 81% (All-time high) (D) Hobbs — 19% NV (R) Lombardo — 66% (All-time high) (D) Sisolak — 34% WI (R) Michels — 63% (D) Evers — 37% OR (R) Drazan — 58% (D) Kotek — 42% KS (R) Schmidt — 54% (D) Kelly — 46%.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 884,059 Reports(+3,177 from prior week) Through October 14th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 223.25 +5.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 119.25 +2.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.55 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.0 +3.0%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.07 -1.0 basis point. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.5 +.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.61%.
• S&P 500 futures -.20%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.39%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/3.91
• (CNA)/.59
• (GPN)/2.48
• (ON)/1.31
• (XPO)/1.35

After the Close:

• (AFL)/1.21
• (ANET)/1.05
• (CAR)/14.64
• (BCC)/4.13
• (FLS)/.24
• (GT)/.55
• (HLF)/.80
• (LSCC)/.44
• (NXPI)/3.66
• (PSMT)/.63
• (RMBS)/.41
• (SBAC)/2.60
• (SYK)/2.23
• (TREX)/.14
• (VNO)/.73
• (WMB)/.43
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Oct. is estimated to rise to 47.3 versus 45.7 in Sept.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Oct. is estimated to fall to -18.4 versus -17.2 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, (WOLF) Investor Day and the (CRTO) investor day could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by energy and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.