Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Xi’s Total Control in China Injects More Risk Into Chaotic World.  
• Yen Slides as Traders Turn Focus to BOJ From Intervention.  
• Traders Bet on Aussie Inflation by Driving Yields to Decade High.  
• Ukraine Latest: Russia Presses Warning of ‘Dirty Bomb’ by Kyiv.
• Johnson Pulls Out of UK Leadership Race, Leaving Sunak Ahead.
• UK Can’t Shake Pound Negativity After Weeks of Political Chaos.
  
• Credit Suisse Chief Compliance Officer Is Set to Leave Firm.
  
• Asian Shares Poised to Climb as US Futures Advance: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Edges Higher as Tightening Market Vies With Slowdown Fears.
  
• Wall Street Is Heading to Saudi Arabia as US Oil Spat Simmers.

Wall Street Journal:

• Three New Yorkers Ordered Cocaine From the Same Delivery Service. All Died From Fentanyl.
• Companies Take Different Strategies to Navigate Inflation.
• Early Earnings Reports Fail to Ease Investors’ Worries.
• As Covid Hit, Washington Officials Traded Stocks With Exquisite Timing.
• Biden Plan to Refill Oil Reserves Raises Doubts.
• The Legal Fight Over Student-Loan Forgiveness. Biden wins in lower court, but the states have a strong case on appeal.
• France’s Nuclear Reactors Malfunction as Energy Crisis Bites.
• Asia’s Junk-Bond Issuers Are Seeking Funding Elsewhere.

Fox News:

• Chaos ensues after climate activists throw mashed potatoes at painting.

CNBC:

• ‘Anger on their minds’: NBC News poll finds sky-high interest and polarization ahead of midterms.
• Wall Street eyes auto industry earnings for signs of ‘demand destruction’.
• Movie theaters want more from Netflix, but the streaming giant isn’t ready to budge.

Zero Hedge:

• NY Judge Declares 'Vote By Mail' Law Unconstitutional.
• Russia Warns Of 'Dirty Bomb' False Flag Plot In Flurry Of Rare Calls To Western Leaders.
• Dems' Senate Worries Mount As Arizona Race Now A Dead Heat.
• How Bernanke Broke The World.
• Trump Vows To 'Take Back Our Magnificent White House' In 2024.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "There Is Too Much Debt In The World, So They Must Inflate It Away, Which They Will. That's The Only Thing You Need To Know".
• Morgan Stanley Warns Banks Facing "Capital Crunch With Liquidity Squeeze On Top".
• Biden's Energy Strategy Is Seriously Backfiring Ahead Of November Elections.
• Watch: Elite US Airborne Division "Practicing For War" Near Ukraine Border.
• California Wildfires Cancel-Out Two Decades Of Emissions Reductions.
• China Congress Ends As "Dictator For LIfe" Xi Stacks Inner Circle With Loyalists; Equity Market Implications.
• Stockman: The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Lockdowns & The Aftermath.
• Rally Against 'Child Mutilation' Draws Thousands Of Supporters.
• "It's Just Not Right" - One Trader's Rage Spills Over At "Incompetent, Untrustworthy, Unaccountable" Fed.
• A "Record" Number Of Real Estate Agents Will Quit Due To Economy, Realtor Predicts.
• Dem Grip On Senate In Peril As GOP Pulling Ahead In Nevada Race.
• "Frankly Terrifying": Energy Crisis Could Drag 26M Brits Into Fuel Poverty.
• Former China President Abruptly Escorted From Party Congress.
• Elon Musk Predicts U.S. In Recession Until "Spring Of 2024".
• Iran Is Conducting "Massive" Military Drills On The Azerbaijan Border.
• The Global Inflation Outlook.
• Soros, Thornton, Hawke: New Book Details How Beijing Manipulated Western Elites.
• 401(k) Contribution Limit Leaps By Record Amount As Inflation Rages.
• China's CPC Congress Passes Resolution To Boost Armed Forces, Speed Up 'Taiwan Reunification'.

MarketWatch.com:             

• Big Tech has been an earnings refuge for years, but safety is no longer a sure thing.
  
• Who is Rishi Sunak, now the front-runner for U.K. prime minister?  
• Stock-market investors brace for busiest week of earnings season. Here’s how it stacks up so far.  
• Why stock-market investors fear ‘something else will break’ as Fed attacks inflation.  
• Airbnb hosts say bookings ‘fell off a cliff’ amid influx of new vacation rentals and rising prices.

NewsMax:

• Boris Johnson Pulls Out of Race for UK Prime Minister.  
• Blaine Holt: Xi's Installation Gives Putin Free Hand in Ukraine.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BIDEN ECONOMY: US Has Only 25 Days of Diesel Supply – Shortage Could Cripple Economy.
• Lisa Murkowski Says She Will Support Democrat for Alaska US Representative Race – Mitch McConnell Continues to Support Her.
• Nancy Pelosi: “When I Hear People Talk About Inflation…We Have to Change the Subject!” (VIDEO).
• BOOM! Kari Lake: “Mitch McConnell Needs to Wake Up – Republican Party is Not About Elites Like Mitch in DC” (VIDEO).
• 19 States Are Investigating Financial Institutions’ Commitment to the Globalists’ Environmental and Socialist Agenda.
• Fully Vaxxed and Boosted CDC Director Rochelle Walensky Catches COVID One Month After Her Latest Booster Shot.
• Transgender Comedian Strips Naked on Live TV Broadcast and Plays the Piano with His Penis.

The Epoch Times:

• Family Pleads as 16-Year-Old Daughter Dies in COVID-19 Quarantine in China.
• Shanghai Spends Big Money Constructing Makeshift Quarantine Facilities, Tightens COVID-19 Curbs.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 880,882 Reports(+3,155 from prior week) Through October 7th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +1.25% to +1.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 204.0 -8.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 114.0 -3.0 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.4 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 52.5 +2.0%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.31 -14.0 basis points 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.7 -1.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.41%.
• S&P 500 futures +.58%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.81%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (PHG)/.09
• (SCHN)/.46
  

After the Close:

• (BRO)/.60
• (CDNS)/.96
• (CLS)/.45
• (CR)/1.85
• (CCK)/1.78
• (DFS)/3.72
• (LOGI)/.63
• (PKG)/2.81
• (ZION)/1.59
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept.

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Oct. is estimated to fall to 51.0 versus 52.0 in Sept.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for Oct. is estimated to rise to 49.6 versus 49.3 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.