Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Japan LDP Aims to Aid Sickly Firms as Covid-Era Free Credit Ends.  
• South Korea’s Inflation Edges Down as Rate Hikes Cool Demand.
  
• Asian Stocks Set to Rise After US Equities Rally: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Steady as OPEC+ Mulls Biggest Cut to Production Since 2020.
  
• Musk Says Twitter Deal Paves Way for ‘X, the Everything App’.
  
• Juul Moves to Enter Financing Talks for Potential Bankruptcy.  
• Amazon Freezes Corporate Hiring in Retail Business With Slowing Sales.  
• Pfizer’s Unthinkable Boom Now Leaves Investors Anxious.
• Wall Street Sees S&P 500 Falling Further After Bear-Market Bounce.  
• White Collar Workers May Finally Be Getting Anxious About the Job Market.

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran’s Crippled Economy Sustains Protests After Religious Police Lit Flame.
• Illinois’s Shocking Report Card. The Land of Lincoln is failing its children and covering it up.
• Racial Preferences Harm Their Beneficiaries, Too. Favored minorities struggle when they might have thrived at less-selective schools. 
• Dalio Hands Over Control of Bridgewater.
• U.K. Leader Faces Backlash After Market Turmoil.
• Retail Real Estate Enjoying Biggest Revival in Years.
• OPEC+ Girds for Contentious Meeting Over Oil-Production Cuts.
• Micron to Spend Up to $100 Billion on Chip Factory in New York.

Fox News:

• IRS employees stole COVID relief funds to bankroll lavish lifestyles, DOJ reveals.

CNBC.com:

• Twitter shares surge 22% after Elon Musk revives deal to buy company at original price.
• Treasury Secretary Yellen says ‘there is no truth’ to report she’ll leave agency after election. 
  

MarketWatch:             

• History shows S&P 500’s bounce from 2022 low may not signal bear market’s end, cautions Bespoke.
  
• ‘This is not healthy’: The latest advance for stocks could signal more pain ahead for markets. Here’s why.  
• Visa ‘stands to lose the most’ from Fed’s new debit-card rules, analyst says.
  
• Average CEO pay is now 399 times more than a typical worker’s wage — and one-third of that rise happened in the last three years.  
• ‘The mood is dark’ — More than half of Silicon Valley residents still want to move away, poll finds.  
• Over 50% of CEOs say they’re considering cutting jobs over the next 6 months — and remote workers may be the first go to.

Zero Hedge:

• Now That Twitter Belongs To Elon, Here Is What He Will Do To The Platform In His Own Words.
• Amazon Reportedly Halts Corporate Hiring For Retail Business.
• Nearly Half Of Americans Making Six-Figures Living Paycheck To Paycheck.
• Is Canada On The Verge Of A Political Revolution?
• Former NSA Staffer Charged With Espionage After Trying To Sell Information To Undercover FBI Agent.
• D.E. Shaw Hiking Some Hedge Fund Fees To As High As 3.5%-And-40%.
• Trump Asks Supreme Court To Block FBI From Using Seized Documents.
• South Korea & US Fire 4 Surface-To-Surface Missiles In Rare Response To North's Launch.
• Restoring Free Speech At Our Universities.
• Roubini: The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here.
• US stocks continued to rally and the dollar pullback persisted amid soft data releases - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Beijing Will Know More About You Than You Do: Gettr CEO.
• WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Significant Draws.
• Stocks and bonds continue ascent with cracks in US data testing Fed resolve - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Trump Asks Supreme Court To Block FBI From Using Seized Documents.
• Stocks, Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Jump As Dollar Dumps.

 Newsmax:   

• Conservative Group Sues FBI Over Alleged Big Tech Collusion.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden to Attend Democrat Fundraiser at the Home of Fox News Owner Rupert Murdoch’s Son James.
• FLASHBACK: CIA Sabotaged Soviet Pipeline to Europe in 1982 – US Software Caused Massive Explosion in Siberian Pipeline Seen From Space.
• Outrageous! Tarrant County Texas Sheriff Won’t Investigate Police Body Cam Footage of Ballot Harvesting “Confession”.
• HUGE! Election Company Konnech CEO Eugene Yu Arrested in Los Angeles for Theft of Personal Data of Election Workers – Sent to China!
• Reporter Confronts Karine Jean-Pierre Over Biden’s Praise of Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Facing Termination Because He’s Not Vaccinated (VIDEO).
• Disney Cancels Its New Release of “Little Demon” About a Woman Impregnated by Satan and Her Antichrist Daughter.
• Another Biden Record – US Debt Surpasses $31 Trillion for First Time Ever.
  

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Opens Police Departments in the US; COVID-19 Vaccine Autopsy Reports Hidden From Public.
• Fauci Defends Funding Group That’s Collaborated With Wuhan Facility at Center of Lab Leak Theory.
• ‘Summoning the Devil:’ Chinese Economist’s Call for ‘People’s Economy’ Triggers Backlash.

Twitter:

• @Robber_Baron_ - Just as a new study shows myocarditis risk rises with EACH ADDITIONAL Covid shot, the CDC changes it's definition of "fully vaccinated" to include more boosters.
• @TomFitton - NEW: Records show a disturbing and massive campaign by the Biden administration to propagandize and politicize the controversial COVID vaccine.
• @disclosetv - NOW - China starts enforcing its zero-COVID policy with machine guns at Xishuangbanna Airport in Yunnan. People screaming "are you gonna kill us all?". (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 871,837 Reports(+4,210 from prior week) Through September 23rd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 169.5 -17.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 95.25 -9.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.66 -.03%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 44.66 +1.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.10 +7.0 basis points
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.0 +.5%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.43%.

• S&P 500 futures -.32%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.40%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (HELE)/2.21
• (RPM)/1.33
  

After the Close:

• (RGP)/.49
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Sept. is estimated to rise to 200K versus 132K in Aug.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated at -$67.7B versus $70.7B in July.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 56.0 versus 56.9 in Aug.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,609,000 barrels versus a -215,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,384,140 barrels versus a -2,422,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated at -1,465,000 barrels versus -2,891,000 barres the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.43% versus a -3.0% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Services PMI report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.