Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 -4.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.9 -.42%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.82 +.43%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.9 -2.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.09 -.91%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 -6.61%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.3 -.11%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 311.26 -1.18%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 346.0 +2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.0 -1.09% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 270.79 +.12%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 174.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.43 -.58%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.80 +.46%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.92 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 22.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 806.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 74.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.16 +.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour +5.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.4 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -74.1 +3.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.3 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) -5.8%  unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 238.45 +.04:  Growth Rate +8.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +25.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.74 +.10: Growth Rate +48.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.54 -75.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -72.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.58% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.03% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 53.6%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 53.3%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long