Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, Diminished China Economy Worries, Short-Covering, Transport/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +2.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .55% n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.9 -.02%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.0 -.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.7 +.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +6.0
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +3.3%

• NYSE Arms .68 -80.8% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$226.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.7 -2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 339.50 -.95%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 331 -14
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.9 -.06% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 211.5 +.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 162.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.8 +.88%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 169.4 +1.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 110.1 +1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 25.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 -3.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 964.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.72 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.20 euros/megawatt-hour +2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.3 -4.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.3 +1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.3 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +13.0% +1.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.61 +.01:  Growth Rate +11.4% unch., P/E 19.4 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.75 +.08: Growth Rate +34.9% unch., P/E 30.2 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .38 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -45.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.68% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 67.8% +3.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.43% unch.: CPI YoY +3.33% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 71.3%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 70.6%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +35 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +161 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long