Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Diminished China Economy Fears, Year-End Window Dressing, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.5 +.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .24% -40.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.1 +.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.2 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.1 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.1 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 156.0 +18.0
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -25.7%

• NYSE Arms .82 -43.1% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$29.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.68 +.52%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 334.85 +1.34%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 261 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.44 +.03% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 207.02 -.59%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.90 +.18%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.74 +.09%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 106.88 -3.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.09 +.27%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 23.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 967.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 78.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.77 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 138.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.19%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.10 euros/megawatt-hour -6.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.4 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.6 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.4 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.07 +.09:  Growth Rate +11.6% unch., P/E 19.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.77 +.14: Growth Rate +35.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.5 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .24 -136.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -43.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.26% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 69.2% +2.0 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 74.1%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 74.0%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long