Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.5 +2.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .61% +130.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.9 +4.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.3 +.36%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.9 +2.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.6 -3.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +30.0
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -26.5%

• NYSE Arms .90 +20.0% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$211.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.9 +.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 348.75 -5.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 378 +10.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.5 -6.8% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 200.70 -5.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 167.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.85 -6.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 172.67 -.22%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 108.7 -2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.77 +.11%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 27.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 141.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 965.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.85 +.52%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 134.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.37%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.7 +6.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.6 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.7 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +14.2% +1.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.85 -.03:  Growth Rate +11.5% unch., P/E 19.5 +.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.08% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.15 +.15: Growth Rate +37.4% unch., P/E 29.2 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .55 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.17 -62.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -47.25 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.61% +1.36 percentage points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 67.0% +13.1 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.43% unch.: CPI YoY +3.38% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 63.8%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 57.2%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -16 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +84 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long