Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Biotech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 -2.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .40% -1.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.6 -3.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.1 +.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.0 +.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.9 -4.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 +24.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +14.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.57 +82.6% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$26.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.77 -.16%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 334.1 +.02%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 263 -30
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.42 -.15% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 208.35 unch.
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 159.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.7 +1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.60 -.54%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 110.71 -.43%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.03 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.0 basis points +4.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 22.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +4.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 968.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.77 +.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 139.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.51 euros/megawatt-hour +3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.1 -1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.4 +1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.9 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.98 +.05:  Growth Rate +11.6% unch., P/E 19.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.63 +.10: Growth Rate +35.3% unch., P/E 30.5 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.60 +114.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -45.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.26% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 67.2% +2.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% -1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 73.9%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 73.3%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -216 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long