Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Less Dovish Fed Speak, Dollar Strength, Profit-Taking, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.3 -1.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .55% -10.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.6 -3.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.2 -.68%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.9 +1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.8 +4.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 +9.0
  

• Total Put/Call .84 +1.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +54.0% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$131.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.6 +2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 349.9 +1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 374 -4.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.99 +.71% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 205.99 +2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 171.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.92 -3.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 172.10 +.77%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 109.05 -.05%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.81 +.11%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 26.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 963.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 82.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.75 -.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.19 euros/megawatt-hour -4.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.8 -7.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.8 -19.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -3.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 500 reporting) +12.3% -1.9 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.33 -.52:  Growth Rate +11.3% -.2 percentage point, P/E 19.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.07% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.28 +.13: Growth Rate +37.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 +8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .40 +57.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -51.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.61% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 63.8% -3.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.43% unch.: CPI YoY +3.38% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 62.7%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 53.5%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -190 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +164 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long