Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Close on Rising US Election Credibility Concerns, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Economy Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 +1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .55% n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.0 -1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.2 -.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 -.51%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.7 +2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -3.0
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -8.9%

• NYSE Arms 2.11 +189.0% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$268.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.6 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 335.5 -.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 345 -12
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.9 +1.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 210.44 -.52%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 162.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.7 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.6 -1.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 108.6 +.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 24.75 basis points -3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 963.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.73 -.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 134.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.37%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.50 euros/megawatt-hour +2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.4 +3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.3 +2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.0 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +11.7% +.8 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.60 -.01:  Growth Rate +11.4% unch., P/E 19.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.67 +.15: Growth Rate +34.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.7 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .40 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.68% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.1% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.43% unch.: CPI YoY +3.33% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 71.6%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 67.3%(+6.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -405 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/transport/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long