Friday, December 29, 2023

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.14 +.07:  Growth Rate +11.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.93 +.16: Growth Rate +35.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.4 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .36 +12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -40.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.26% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 67.8% -1.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 74.2%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 72.8%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -179 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +14 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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