Friday, May 27, 2005

Incomes Rising, Inflation Decelerating, Confidence Stable

- Personal Income for April rose .7% versus estimates of a .7% increase and a .5% gain in March.
- Personal Spending for April rose .6% versus estimates of a .8% increase and an upwardly revised .9% gain in March.
- PCE Deflator(YoY) for April rose 2.7% versus a 2.4% increase in March.
- PCE Core(YoY) for April rose 1.6% versus a 1.7% gain in March.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for May rose to 86.9 versus estimates of 86.0 and a prior estimate of 85.3.

BOTTOM LINE: US personal spending rose for a third consecutive month, spurred by rising incomes as hiring accelerated. The PCE Core, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 1.6%. This is well within their stated optimal range of 1.5-1.8%. Incomes were up 7.0% last month from April 2004, well above the inflation rate.

High gas prices and the incessant talk of a “housing bubble” continue to weigh on sentiment. However, the consumer continues to exhibit confidence by their actions. Record high home sales and better-than-expected retail sales illustrate this. As well, the current conditions index, which reflects whether it’s a good time to buy big-ticket items, actually rose to 104.9 in May from 104.4 in April. Finally, the average price of self-serve gas is falling. The average is now $2.17/gallon versus $2.32 in April. Rising stock prices should also help the next report.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China is preparing to complain to the WTO that the European Union and the US are abusing trade protection measures by imposing caps on the nation's textile exports.
- The euro headed for a fifth losing week, the longest such streak since August 2000, on expectations a French referendum will reject the European Union constitution and delay regional integration.
- US Senate Democrats dealt at least a temporary setback to President Bush's bid to install John Bolton as ambassador to the UN by blocking a Republican effort to hold a final vote on Bolton's nomination.

Wall Street Journal:
- Caremark Rx is near an agreement to pay $100 million in a settlement with the US Justice Department involving patients' pharmacy benefits.

Business Week:
- Google's plan to scan in the complete texts of millions of books so they can be searched electronically is a violation of copyright laws, citing unidentified publishers and attorneys.
- China's Chery Automobile and Honda Motor are both betting that China's auto industry is shifting into becoming an export base for the rest of the world from serving only the local market.

NY Times:
- US schools are putting more effort into educating minority students after the No Child Left Behind law gave greater attention to the statistical gap between their performance and that of white students and required annual improvement.

Financial Times:
- Hedge funds and banks have lost about $1 billion because of credit-derivative price swings in the past three weeks, citing Goldman Sachs.

AFP:
- Senators Joe Lieberman and Lamar Alexander co-sponsored a bill that would provide $1.3 billion in five years for Chinese language instruction in US schools.

Asian Wall Street Journal:
- Merrill Lynch will invest $300 million for a venture with Pequot Capital Management, a US hedge fund.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on AIG, EBAY, YHOO and GOOG.

Business Week:
- Shares of Snap-On(SNA), the world's biggest maker of hand tools, storage units and diagnostic equipment for mechanics, may rise more than 30% as costs will fall under new CEO Jack Michaels.
- Shares of News Corp.(NWS) may rise as much as 50% within the next year as earnings from satellite unit Sky Italia and partially owned units DirectTV Group and British Sky Broadcasting will increase.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are to +% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
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Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
CYBX/-.32
QSII/.32
VIP/.77

Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 EST
- Personal Income for April is estimated to rise .7% versus a .5% gain in March.
- Personal Spending for April is estimated to rise .8% versus a .6% increase in March.

9:45 EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for May is estimated to rise to 86.0 versus a prior estimate of 85.3.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher on gains in exporting shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher on strong personal income/spending data, a better-than-expected revision to consumer sentiment and short-covering. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, May 26, 2005

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs as Energy Prices Reverse

Indices
S&P 500 1,197.62 +.64%
DJIA 10,537.60 +.76%
NASDAQ 2,071.24 +1.03%
Russell 2000 614.70 +1.37%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,813.30 +.72%
S&P Barra Growth 579.56 +.59%
S&P Barra Value 613.55 +.69%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 589.26 +.29%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 724.86 +.81%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.37 +1.10%
Transports 3,636.22 +1.02%
Utilities 363.33 +.23%
Put/Call .76 -25.49%
NYSE Arms .65 -22.24%
Volatility(VIX) 12.24 -2.70%
ISE Sentiment 167.00 +7.05%
US Dollar 86.85 +.58%
CRB 300.09 +.28%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 50.96 -.04%
Unleaded Gasoline 144.75 -.29%
Natural Gas 6.12 -3.02%
Heating Oil 144.22 +.97%
Gold 417.70 -.07%
Base Metals 122.18 +.28%
Copper 144.50 -.31%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.07% -.24%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.76%
Steel +2.90%
Homebuilders +2.68%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -.08%
Broadcasting -.12%
Gold & Silver -1.03%

Evening Review
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S&P 500 Gallery View
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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MO, TMK and Underperform on RAI.
- Rated Auto Parts sector Cautious.
- Rated JCI, DCN, BWA Outperform.
- Rated ARM, LEA, GM and DPH Underperform.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US President Bush pledged the US will provide $50 million in direct aid to the Palestinian Authority, saying Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is moving forward with reforms he promised.
- GLG Partners LP, Europe’s largest hedge fund manager, posted a 6.7% decline in its $3 billion convertible bond arbitrage fund in May, extending the loss for the year to 14.2%.
- President Jacques Chirac pleaded with voters to endorse Europe’s constitution in a May 29 referendum, saying the treaty will allow France to meet the challenges of globalization without giving up its welfare system.
- A US Senate panel approved creation of a $140 billion fund for asbestos-exposure victims that would end litigation that has bankrupted 77 companies.
- Smoking among Americans fell in 2003 to a new low of 21.6%.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet, Homebuilding and Computer longs. I added to a few lagging longs in the afternoon and began adding some oil service shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new shorts is RIG and I am using a $51.75 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline finished higher, almost every sector was higher and volume was light. Measures of investor anxiety were lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was positive considering the major averages and breadth finished near session highs. In my opinion, long-term investors should always consider tech stocks after substantial declines. Since Jan. 31, 1991, the Morgan Stanley tech index has returned 1,914.12% vs. a return of 349.62% for the S&P 500 during the same time period. This includes the bursting of the largest tech bubble in U.S. financial market history.

Stocks Quietly Higher Mid-day on Upward GDP Revision

Indices
S&P 500 1,196.92 +.58%
DJIA 10,518.24 +.58%
NASDAQ 2,068.20 +.88%
Russell 2000 613.06 +1.10%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,804.16 +.64%
S&P Barra Growth 579.49 +.58%
S&P Barra Value 612.88 +.58%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 589.03 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 724.79 +.80%
Morgan Stanley Technology 481.76 +.97%
Transports 3,639.92 +1.12%
Utilities 364.48 +.55%
Put/Call .74 -27.45%
NYSE Arms .56 -32.86%
Volatility(VIX) 12.13 -3.58%
ISE Sentiment 172.00 +10.26%
US Dollar 86.87 +.60%
CRB 300.13 +.31%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.45 +.92%
Unleaded Gasoline 145.50 +.23%
Natural Gas 6.26 -.87%
Heating Oil 145.10 +1.58%
Gold 417.60 -.31%
Base Metals 122.18 +.28%
Copper 144.70 +1.94%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.07% -.19%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.82%
Steel +2.47%
Airlines +2.24%

Lagging Sectors
Papers +.10%
Food +.10%
Gold & Silver -.26%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet, Semiconductor and Homebuilding longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is strong, almost every sector is higher and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Today’s overall market action is positive, given last week’s gains, rising energy prices and an upward revision to 1Q GDP. Through April, U.S. short-biased hedge funds have returned on average 17.65%, according to Hennessee. This is the best four-month performance for this style since the period around the 9/11 attacks. Record-high short interest, combined with profit protection by the shorts should cushion any pullbacks over the coming months. I expect US stocks to rise modestly into the close on short-covering and more optimism.