Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Wholesale Inventories Rise Less Than Sales, Crude Inventories Fall

- Wholesale Inventories rose .8% in April versus estimates of a .4% increase and an upwardly revised .6% gain in March.
- Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending June 3, 2005.
- The EIA reported crude inventories fell 3.09M barrels versus estimates of a 250K barrel rise. Gasoline inventories fell 31K barrels versus estimates of a 1.1M barrel gain. Distillate inventories rose 1.29M barrels versus estimates of a 1.28M barrel rise.

BOTTOM LINE: Stockpiles at US wholesalers rose more than forecast in April, led by machinery and other business equipment, however sales increased by the most in a year. The inventory-to-sales ratio declined to 1.18 months from 1.19 months in March, the lowest since January, which suggests factories may not need to continue trimming production.

Oil is rising $1.30 on the inventory news. While the drawdown in crude is unwelcome, inventories are still well above average levels for this time of year. The main focus of traders recently has been distillates, which saw a build.

Links of Interest

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Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Samsung Electronics said better-than-expected demand for semiconductors that store pictures and songs in gadgets such as mobile phones will prolong a shortage of the chip.
- Chinese stocks climbed, with key indices on course for their biggest advances in four months, as investors bet the government will introduce more incentives to bolster markets.

Financial Times:
- Foreign companies warn that proposed changes in Japan's commercial code could lead investment banks, law firms and others to leave Japan if implemented, citing the European Business Community and American Chamber of Commerce in Japan.
- Investment grade companies' costs for raising funds through syndicated loans are at their lowest level in eight years in Europe and the US, citing market research company Dealogic.

Australian Financial Review:
- BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia's largest steelmaker, had its share target cut 19% by Citigroup Inc. on concern that steel prices are falling faster than previously forecast.

Oriental Morning Post:
- China may cap steel production when it issues a new policy for the development of the industry in July.

Beijing News:
- The European Union is facing pressure to raise its anti-dumping tariff on bicycles imported from China to 45% from 31%, citing the head of a Chinese industry association.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on LIZ, TRI, CVD and HMA.
- Reiterated Cautious view on Radio sector.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.26%.

Morning Preview
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
CMTL/.24
HRB/3.52
KFY/.25

Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 EST:
- Wholesale Inventories for April are estimated to rise .4% versus a .4% gain in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher on gains in technology shares in the region after Texas Instruments raised guidance and Samsung made positive comments. I expect US equities to open modestly higher, led by technology shares. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Stocks Finish Mixed on Afternoon Reversal

Indices
S&P 500 1,197.26 -.02%
DJIA 10,483.07 +.15%
NASDAQ 2,067.16 -.41%
Russell 2000 623.78 +.13%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,851.46 -.01%
S&P Barra Growth 578.46 +.04%
S&P Barra Value 614.33 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.99 unch.
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 721.72 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Technology 481.41 -.48%
Transports 3,612.63 -.62%
Utilities 370.13 +.33%
Put/Call .84 -3.45%
NYSE Arms 1.16 -11.49%
Volatility(VIX) 12.39 +.90%
ISE Sentiment 156.00 -11.36%
US Dollar 87.49 -.13%
CRB 306.21 -.35%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.79 +.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 151.67 +.07%
Natural Gas 7.17 +.60%
Heating Oil 161.10 +.72%
Gold 426.50 -.05%
Base Metals 124.80 -1.13%
Copper 153.40 -.58%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.90% -1.30%

Leading Sectors
Hospitals +1.66%
Broadcasting +.97%
Homebuilders +.85%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -1.24%
Restaurants -1.30%
Gold & Silver -1.95%

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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MO.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Borrowing by US consumers grew in April at the slowest pace in five months as a yearlong series of rate increases by the Fed made money more expensive, the Fed said today.
- North Korea has agreed to resume six-party talks aimed at dismantling its nuclear arms program, Wang Guangya, China’s ambassador to the UN, said today.
- The NY Mercantile Exchange, the largest energy market, agreed with the crown prince of Dubai to open the Middle East’s first oil futures exchange as it seeks to expand open-outcry trading, according to Nymex officials.
- Texas Instruments, whose semiconductors run more than half the mobile phones sold last year, said second-quarter sales may reach its highest forecasts as consumers buy new phones that surf the Internet.
- ImClone Systems said billionaire investor Carl Icahn is seeking US antitrust clearance to increase his stake in the company to as much as $500 million.
- UK Prime Minister Blair and President Bush pledged their governments will make aiding impoverished African nations a major priority.

Wall Street Journal:
- China may ban the broadcast of foreign cartoons during prime-time, hampering efforts by companies such as Walt Disney and Viacom to sell programs and their characters in the world’s biggest television market.

AP:
- China, in its latest effort to police the Internet, ordered the operators of all local Web sites and Web logs to register or be shut down.

Financial Times:
- The European Union’s “socialistic” legal structure discourages overseas businesses from opening offices in the region, citing Owens-Illinois CEO McCracken.
- Workers in industrialized states could earn the equivalent of a year’s salary over their working lives if countries boosted domestic competition and cut trade barriers, citing the OECD.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Internet, Retail and Homebuilding longs and Energy-related shorts. I took profits in a few QQQQs and added to some existing shorts in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. I added to my RIG short and I am now using a $52.50 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline finished slightly lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today’s market action was negative considering the reversal from morning highs, a decline in energy prices and lower long-term rates. The Baltic Freight Index, a leading economic indicator, has declined 62.9% from December 2004 highs. Moreover, it has fallen 51.5% just since mid-April and broken its uptrend that has been in place since mid-2002. This is another indicator forecasting slowing global growth.

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day on Fed "Pause" Speculation

Indices
S&P 500 1,201.25 +.31%
DJIA 10,517.21 +.48%
NASDAQ 2,074.75 -.05%
Russell 2000 626.07 +.51%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,892.79 +.32%
S&P Barra Growth 580.48 +.39%
S&P Barra Value 616.55 +.28%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.71 +.29%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 723.40 +.10%
Morgan Stanley Technology 483.35 -.01%
Transports 3,639.51 +.13%
Utilities 372.62 +1.0%
Put/Call .83 -4.60%
NYSE Arms .75 -42.76%
Volatility(VIX) 11.84 -3.58%
ISE Sentiment 196.00 +11.36%
US Dollar 87.56 -.05%
CRB 306.65 -.20%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.85 -1.17%
Unleaded Gasoline 151.50 -.95%
Natural Gas 7.12 +.04%
Heating Oil 160.70 -.59%
Gold 426.60 -.42%
Base Metals 124.80 -1.13%
Copper 154.30 -1.34%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.92% -.63%

Leading Sectors
Hospitals +1.89%
Airlines +1.55%
Papers +1.20%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -.26%
Oil Tankers -.60%
Gold & Silver -1.31%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet, Networking and Retail longs. I added a few tech longs this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is XXIA and I am using an $18 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Today’s overall market action is modestly positive considering Greenspan’s dovish comments last night. As I have stated numerous times over the last year, I do not believe there is a “conundrum” with respect to low long-term rates. I continue to believe the U.S. economy is temporarily slowing to below-average rates of growth. As well, global growth appears on the verge of slowing substantially.
A firmer U.S. dollar, slowing global growth, decelerating measures of inflation and a flight of capital back to the U.S. should keep rates low. The U.S. has likely experienced a cyclical bout of modest inflation within a secular disinflationary environment. This will become more apparent over the coming quarters. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering and more Fed “pause” speculation.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Cisco Systems said it has seen a surge in demand for its fastest routers, a sign telephone carriers are stepping up spending on networks.
- LG.Philips LCD, the world’s largest maker of liquid crystal displays in monitors and televisions, said it won a contract to supply $5 billion worth of panels to Hewlett-Packard over the next three years.
- Frontline Ltd. and Teekay Shipping Corp., whose top executives gather today in Norway for four days of shipping conferences, may seek takeovers as a slump in freight rates threatens to erode earnings.
- Royal Dutch/Shell Group, E.ON AG and partners sought government permission to build the world’s largest wind park, a $2.75 billion offshore project big enough to serve one-fourth of London.
- GM CEO Wagoner said the automaker will cut at least 25,000 US manufacturing jobs in the next three years and close additional assembly and parts plants to cut costs.
- US 10-year Treasuries rose the most in five days after Fed Chairman Greenspan suggested yields may not rise soon following an “unusual” slide to a 14-month low.
- Crude oil is falling for a second day on speculation higher refinery output is boosting fuel supplies, undermining the justification for a two-week rally in prices.

Wall Street Journal:
- Italian, Spanish and Portuguese shoemakers will demand that the European Union curb leather-shoe imports from China, citing Leonardo Soana, director general of Italy’s National Footwear Assoc.
- GM is introducing new models, including replacements for the Chevrolet Tahoe, GMC Yukon and Cadillac Escalade, in an effort to turn around a $1.3 billion first-quarter loss in North America.
- UAL’s United Airlines is giving up its costly and problem-ridden baggage system at the Denver Intl. Airport which may save the company considerable costs.

NY Times:
- Some legal US residents in both Mexico and the US rent their social security numbers to illegal immigrants looking for work.
- Mass graves in northern Iraq may prove that Saddam Hussein’s government killed as many as 100,000 Kurds in the late 1980s.
- The Bush administration today is publishing requests for proposals for $50 million in federal contracts to help build a computer health-care records system.
- NY City Schools Chancellor Joel Klein is scheduled to unveil plans today for a system of analyzing standardized-test scores that aims to identify which schools are helping students and which ones are behind.

Boston Globe:
- A proposed increase in the minimum wage in Massachusetts might lead to the loss of as many as 27,000 jobs.

Las Vegas Review-Journal:
- Nevada’s Legislature reached an agreement late Monday on a $300 million rebate to the state’s taxpayers.

NY Post:
- Apria Healthcare Group, the biggest US provider of home-health services, is trying to find buyers for the company almost a year after it put a possible sale on hold.

Star-Ledger:
- New Jersey public schools will stop selling sodas, candy and junk food to students by Sept. 1, 2007.

Reuters:
- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB has no plans to cut interest rates in the dozen-nation euro region, citing Trichet.

Financial Times:
- World hedge-fund performance was little changed in May, as the effect of downgrades of Ford and GM debt didn’t materialize, citing Merrill Lynch’s global hedge fund monitor.

Valor Economico:
- Staples and Office Depot are considering the acquisition of two Brazilian office-supply companies.

AFP:
- OPEC’s president, Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah, said he will seek a 500,000 barrel-a-day increase in the organization’s output quotas at a meeting next week if prices remain high.