Tuesday, December 03, 2024

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.44% -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.6 +2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.1 -.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 +.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.34 +.12:  Growth Rate +13.3% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 383.53 +.16: Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 32.8 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +15.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 4.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.16% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.7% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 60.7%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 44.7%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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