Monday, June 13, 2005

Stocks Close Modestly Higher as US Dollar and Energy Rise

Indices
S&P 500 1,200.82 +.23%
DJIA 10,522.56 +.09%
NASDAQ 2,068.96 +.29%
Russell 2000 629.02 +.43%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,890.26 +.58%
S&P Barra Growth 577.60 +.14%
S&P Barra Value 618.86 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.12 +.02%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 723.99 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.09 +.63%
Transports 3,523.43 +.06%
Utilities 374.43 +.34%
Put/Call .88 +23.94%
NYSE Arms .61 -31.36%
Volatility(VIX) 11.65 -2.59%
ISE Sentiment 118.00 -27.61%
US Dollar 88.95 +.29%
CRB 304.28 +.60%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.60 -.04%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.06 -.08%
Natural Gas 7.32 +.81%
Heating Oil 166.82 +.31%
Gold 430.60 -.12%
Base Metals 123.48 -.24%
Copper 153.55 -.26%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.09% +1.0%

Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +1.95%
Hospitals +1.38%
Papers +1.38%

Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -.52%
Airlines -1.49%
Oil Tankers -1.58%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Underperform on PFG.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Intel said it is setting up a $200 million investment fund to help accelerate the use of computers and the Internet in China.
- Ford’s Hertz rental-car unit said it plans an IPO of as much as $100 million in stock.
- US Treasuries maturing in 10 years or more fell for a fourth day, the longest slide since February, as investors anticipate stronger US growth.
- Shares of Northwest Airlines dropped 12% after Chairman Gary Wilson disclosed he sold 59% of his Northwest stock over the past month.
- Hewlett-Packard separated its personal-computer and printing units five months after combining the businesses.
- Crude oil rose more than $2/bbl. in NY on concern that refiners will be unable to meet surging global demand for distillate fuels such as diesel and heating oil.

SportsBusiness Journal:
- Nike signed NY Yankees All-Star Alex Rodriguez to a five-year sponsorship that might earn him $1 million a year.

Reuters:
- The Blackstone Group, one of the world’s largest private equity firms, is among the companies interested in buying appliance-maker Maytag.

Financial Times:
- SBC Communications said plans for a plan $4 billion fiber-optic network is progressing.
- Haier, a Chinese appliance maker, is considering making a bid for Maytag.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Internet and Semiconductor longs. I exited a tech long in after-hours and added to my QQQQ long, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline finished slightly higher, most sectors rose and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today’s market action was positive considering the rise in energy prices. I expect another modestly positive day tomorrow on a better-than-expected PPI reading and better-than-expected retail sales.

Stocks Rising Modestly Mid-day Even as Energy Gains

Indices
S&P 500 1,201.72 +.30%
DJIA 10,539.60 +.26%
NASDAQ 2,068.84 +.28%
Russell 2000 626.88 +.09%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,898.76 +.28%
S&P Barra Growth 578.68 +.33%
S&P Barra Value 618.75 +.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.80 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 724.18 +.51%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.29 +.65%
Transports 3,518.06 -.09%
Utilities 373.60 +.12%
Put/Call .91 +28.17%
NYSE Arms .58 -34.46%
Volatility(VIX) 11.59 -3.09%
ISE Sentiment 125.00 -23.31%
US Dollar 89.01 +.35%
CRB 304.31 +.60%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.10 +2.91%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.40 +1.32%
Natural Gas 7.24 +4.44%
Heating Oil 166.40 +3.58%
Gold 431.10 +.42%
Base Metals 123.48 -.24%
Copper 153.95 -1.47%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.07% +.47%

Leading Sectors
Software +1.24%
Hospitals +1.17%
Papers +1.16%

Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -.64%
Airlines -1.65%
Oil Tankers -1.84%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Internet and Semiconductor longs. I added to my PD short and to an existing long, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is positive, considering the rise in energy prices. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as high energy prices offsets short-covering ahead of important inflation data.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- China’s inflation rate held at a 19-month low in May, adding to expectations that the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates to dampen consumer spending in the world’s fastest-growing economy.
- Nokia Oyj unveiled seven new handset models to help maintain revenue growth and take market share from competitors including Motorola.
- Morgan Stanley has fired Chairman and CEO Philip Purcell.
- The EU will shelve plans to lift a 16-year-old arms embargo against China because of concerns about the nation’s human-rights record and Pacific rim stability, completing a policy shift that marks a US victory and a French defeat.
- Cattle prices in Chicago tumbled to the lowest in 14 months on concern a second possible case of mad cow disease in the US might slash beef sales.
- US Treasuries maturing in 10 years or more fell for a fourth day, the longest slide since February, on speculation the US economy is growing more briskly.
- The euro fell to a nine-month low against the dollar after European Central Bank Chief Eocnomist Otmar spurred speculation the bank may reduce interest rates for the first time since 2003.
- OPEC may increase output for the second time this year as prices stay above $50/bbl., the Saudi Arabian oil minister said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Italy is experiencing a backlash against the euro as the country sinks deeper into recession.
- Warren Buffet’s General Re is in talks with the US government about settling a criminal inquiry into whether the company helped AIG to distort its finances.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank and Ameritrade said they’ve resumed talks about a possible merger of Ameritrade and the Canadian bank’s TD Waterhouse discount-brokerage arm.
- Boeing and United Technologies, which had a US Army program canceled last year, are teaming up again to compete for a proposed air force search-and-rescue helicopter.
- Northwest Airlines is flying dangerously close to an insolvency filing.
- Coca-Cola is bringing back the classic 1971 song used in its “Hilltop” commercial to pitch zero-calories cola to younger consumers who have opted for trendier drinks.
- Angang New Steel, the Hong Kong-listed unit of China’s second-biggest steelmaker, lowered prices of products including cold-rolled steel coil and zinc-galvanized steel.

NY Times:
- The US will issue a report this week that is critical of the UN, though it supports Secretary General Annan’s proposals to improve the organization. The US is the biggest UN contributor, liable for 22% of the organization’s operating budget and almost 27% of the budget for peacekeeping. Annan face pressure to resign amid scandals in the Iraq/UN oil-for-food program.
- The US will import more clams this year from Canada and other countries after an outbreak of red tide, a toxic algae, shut down shellfish beds from Maine to south of Cape Cod.

Washington Post:
- The US government will no longer print its postage stamps and will instead contract all the work out to private printers.

Handelsblatt:
- STMicroelectronics NV forecast a recovery in the semiconductor industry won’t happen before 2006.

Economic Releases

None of note

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA said it has more than 450,000 users of its wireless fidelity Internet service, a sign of rising demand for more flexible ways to access the Web.
- China said it will limit annual export growth of 10 textile products to the European Union to between 8% and 12.5% through 2007.
- Fidelity Investments raised its stake in Google by 46% in April and May as shares of the Internet search engine soared.
- Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer, supports a proposal to boost the exporter group's production ceiling to meet global demand and lower crude prices.
- The Group of Eight industrial nations said "vigorous action" is needed to insulate a weakening world economy from high oil prices and imbalances in growth and trade.
- Wal-Mart Stores said June sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range as general merchandise led the week's gains.
- Washington State's wine boom is boosting small producers and the state's economy.
- The Fed will probably continue to increase interest rates "at a measured pace" to keep rising inflation risks in check, the Fed's Santomero said.
- US Treasury Snow said a shrinking budget deficit proves the US is "doing its part" to spur the world economy and asked Europe and Asia step up efforts to boost growth and narrow international imbalances.
- Currency traders, investors and strategists are more bearish on the euro than they've been in more than two years, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
- A US Treasury bond rally that sent benchmark 10-year note yields to the lowest in more than a year may get an added boost as the dollar's 11% surge against the euro this year attracts foreign investors.
- Crude oil futures fell in NY after Tropical Storm Arlene passed through the Gulf of Mexico without damaging rigs, refineries or pipelines.
- Nokia Oyj may beat its second-quarter profit forecast as increased demand for phones with music players and cameras allows the company to spend less on marketing, an analyst survey showed.
- Japan unexpectedly cut its first quarter economic growth estimate after sluggish overseas demand prompted manufacturers to keep inventories in check.
- Global ocean freight charges have plunged by nearly 25% in the past six weeks because of a slowdown in shipping of iron ore, grain, coal and other commoditities.

New York Times:
- Floridians are spending millions of dollars on safety products to protect their homes from the damaging affects of hurricanes after storms did more than $20 billion in property damage last year.
- Apple Computer's decision to use Intel chips in its computers will boost Apple's share of the home entertainment market by giving its customers access to Window's based software and games.
- Airlines, including Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines, could offset higher costs and break even if they raised revenue an average of five or six percent.

Washington Post:
- US Chamber of Commerce President Thomas Donohue said business groups are prepared to cut off campaign donations to House lawmakers who oppose the Central American Free Trade Agreement.
- The 1.8 million-member Service Employees International Union took a step toward breaking from the AFL-CIO, the country's biggest labor federation, and four other unions may do the same.

Financial Times:
- The UK's Financial Services Authority may allow hedge funds to sell their products directly to consumers for the first time.

Guardian:
- Finance ministers from the world's richest countries agreed to wipe out as much as $55 billion in debt owed by the world's poorest nations.

London-based Sunday Times:
- PartyGaming Plc, a gambling Web site, may lose online business with US customers paying by bank and credit cards under proposed legislation.

Der Spiegel:
- European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said members of the single European currency can't legally be prevented from pulling out.
- European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said "weaker" economic growth is curbing risks to the bank's inflation outlook.
- More Germans would vote to reject the European Union constitution than endorse it.

The Tehran Times:
- China National Petroleum won a contract to carry out petroleum exploration and development in Iran.

Gulf News:
- Saudis plan to withdraw investments from France and sell their shares in local banks after French authorities froze assets of 23 non-resident Saudis for failing to abide by French tax laws.

Nihon Keizai:
- Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki and US Treasury Secretary Snow agreed on the need for China to reform its currency peg soon.

Xinhua News Agency:
- China's banks should draw lessons from Japanese lenders by stepping up supervision of credit risks, said Liu Mingkang, chairman of China's banking regulator.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on VLO, ANF, SMH, ISIL, PNRA, WTW, CRI, UNA, GTN, DJ, TIVO, VZ, HAR, mixed on BBBY, TRB and negative on DPZ, NYT, ELX.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on IWM and mixed on YHOO, IBM, NILE, MSFT, ENDP.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on GE, EOC and mixed on AAPL, BHP, MSFT, AG.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on AIG, SYMC, ANF, HOTT and mixed on IBM.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on NKE, TRB, FON, DUK and KRI.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on ARO.
- Reiterated Underperform on LSI.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.13%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
QSII/.32

Splits
UTX 2-for-1

Economic Releases
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher on strength in exporters in the region after the US dollar rallied further. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher on a decline in energy prices and comments by the Fed's Santomero that inflation is "well contained and US growth will remain modest." The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.