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Tuesday, August 30, 2005
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Asian economic growth is under threat should oil prices remain above $70/bbl., economists said.
- Japan’s household spending unexpectedly fell for a third month in July as individuals cut expenditures on transportation and housing, suggesting consumer demand may not lead growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.
- Crude oil is rising for a second day in NY on concern Hurricane Katrina damaged platforms and ports on the Gulf of Mexico.
Financial Times:
- Next Plc and Debenhams Plc may be among UK retailers planning to move production to Eastern Europe, Turkey and India from China to ensure they get the latest styles into stores more quickly.
Shanghai Daily:
- Shanghai Airlines is seeking Chinese government approval to operate freight services to the US.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EBAY, MERQE and MRVL.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ADCT/.28
MCRS/.43
SMTC/.14
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 101.0 from 103.2 in July.
- Factory Orders for July are estimated to fall 2.2% versus a 1.4% increase in June.
2:00 pm EST
- Minutes of Aug. 9 FOMC Meeting
Bloomberg:
- Asian economic growth is under threat should oil prices remain above $70/bbl., economists said.
- Japan’s household spending unexpectedly fell for a third month in July as individuals cut expenditures on transportation and housing, suggesting consumer demand may not lead growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.
- Crude oil is rising for a second day in NY on concern Hurricane Katrina damaged platforms and ports on the Gulf of Mexico.
Financial Times:
- Next Plc and Debenhams Plc may be among UK retailers planning to move production to Eastern Europe, Turkey and India from China to ensure they get the latest styles into stores more quickly.
Shanghai Daily:
- Shanghai Airlines is seeking Chinese government approval to operate freight services to the US.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EBAY, MERQE and MRVL.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ADCT/.28
MCRS/.43
SMTC/.14
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 101.0 from 103.2 in July.
- Factory Orders for July are estimated to fall 2.2% versus a 1.4% increase in June.
2:00 pm EST
- Minutes of Aug. 9 FOMC Meeting
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher on gains in financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher, however shares may weaken later in the day after the release of the FOMC Minutes. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
Monday, August 29, 2005
Stocks Finish Near Session Highs as Oil Reverses
Indices
S&P 500 1,212.28 +.60%
DJIA 10,463.05 +.63%
NASDAQ 2,137.65 +.80%
Russell 2000 655.32 +1.03%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,096.19 +.63%
S&P Barra Growth 581.46 +.72%
S&P Barra Value 626.50 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.30 +.58%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 731.90 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 493.66 +.53%
Transports 3,685.21 +.49%
Utilities 402.91 +.75%
Put/Call 1.0 -15.25%
NYSE Arms .76 -54.77%
Volatility(VIX) 13.52 -1.46%
ISE Sentiment 137.00 -20.35%
US Dollar 88.20 +.39%
CRB 323.23 +1.93%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.76 +.83%
Unleaded Gasoline 208.60 +1.23%
Natural Gas 11.39 +1.24%
Heating Oil 191.45 +.30%
Gold 441.40 unch.
Base Metals 129.99 unch.
Copper 162.70 +.34%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.16 -.46%
Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +3.52%
Steel +2.63%
Biotech +1.38%
Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -.04%
Restaurants -.37%
Airlines -1.03%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Eastman Kodak is retaking the photo kiosk business at Walgreen from Fuji Photo Film, making it the choice of the three biggest US retailers of prints.
- Hurricane Katrina’s estimated cost for insurers such as Allstate Corp. was cut to $9 billion to $16 billion by storm modeler Eqecat after the storm veered away from New Orleans.
- Cultivation of opium poppies in Afghanistan, which are used to produce the narcotic heroin, decreased by 21% this year, the UN said.
AP:
- A Yemeni sheik convicted in NY of conspiring to fund terrorism by Hamas and al-Qaeda has been sent to a super-maximum security prison in Florence, Colorado, to serve his sentence.
Agence France-Presse:
- Israel will abandon more West Bank settlements in negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said today on Israel’s Channel 10 tv.
S&P 500 1,212.28 +.60%
DJIA 10,463.05 +.63%
NASDAQ 2,137.65 +.80%
Russell 2000 655.32 +1.03%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,096.19 +.63%
S&P Barra Growth 581.46 +.72%
S&P Barra Value 626.50 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.30 +.58%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 731.90 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 493.66 +.53%
Transports 3,685.21 +.49%
Utilities 402.91 +.75%
Put/Call 1.0 -15.25%
NYSE Arms .76 -54.77%
Volatility(VIX) 13.52 -1.46%
ISE Sentiment 137.00 -20.35%
US Dollar 88.20 +.39%
CRB 323.23 +1.93%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.76 +.83%
Unleaded Gasoline 208.60 +1.23%
Natural Gas 11.39 +1.24%
Heating Oil 191.45 +.30%
Gold 441.40 unch.
Base Metals 129.99 unch.
Copper 162.70 +.34%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.16 -.46%
Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +3.52%
Steel +2.63%
Biotech +1.38%
Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -.04%
Restaurants -.37%
Airlines -1.03%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Eastman Kodak is retaking the photo kiosk business at Walgreen from Fuji Photo Film, making it the choice of the three biggest US retailers of prints.
- Hurricane Katrina’s estimated cost for insurers such as Allstate Corp. was cut to $9 billion to $16 billion by storm modeler Eqecat after the storm veered away from New Orleans.
- Cultivation of opium poppies in Afghanistan, which are used to produce the narcotic heroin, decreased by 21% this year, the UN said.
AP:
- A Yemeni sheik convicted in NY of conspiring to fund terrorism by Hamas and al-Qaeda has been sent to a super-maximum security prison in Florence, Colorado, to serve his sentence.
Agence France-Presse:
- Israel will abandon more West Bank settlements in negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said today on Israel’s Channel 10 tv.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet, Retail, Semiconductor and Computer longs. I took profits in a few trading longs in the afternoon and added to my oil tanker shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was very light. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was very positive. However, volume was much lighter than I would have liked to have seen.
Stocks Ignoring Hurricane Katrina Mid-day, Moving Higher
Indices
S&P 500 1,211.45 +.53%
DJIA 10,456.76 +.57%
NASDAQ 2,134.91 +.69%
Russell 2000 652.97 +.67%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,084.65 +.53%
S&P Barra Growth 581.15 +.66%
S&P Barra Value 626.15 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.05 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 731.66 +.22%
Morgan Stanley Technology 493.68 +.53%
Transports 3,681.41 +.38%
Utilities 402.55 +.66%
Put/Call 1.16 -1.69%
NYSE Arms .72 -57.10%
Volatility(VIX) 13.47 -1.97%
ISE Sentiment 138.00 -19.77%
US Dollar 88.20 +.39%
CRB 323.13 +1.90%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.00 +1.32%
Unleaded Gasoline 206.00 +6.91%
Natural Gas 10.78 +10.29%
Heating Oil 190.50 +3.72%
Gold 441.70 -.09%
Base Metals 129.99 unch.
Copper 162.50 -1.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.16% -.41%
Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +3.57%
Steel +2.67%
Gold & Silver +1.75%
Lagging Sectors
REITs -.12%
Restaurants -.49%
Airlines -1.15%
S&P 500 1,211.45 +.53%
DJIA 10,456.76 +.57%
NASDAQ 2,134.91 +.69%
Russell 2000 652.97 +.67%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,084.65 +.53%
S&P Barra Growth 581.15 +.66%
S&P Barra Value 626.15 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.05 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 731.66 +.22%
Morgan Stanley Technology 493.68 +.53%
Transports 3,681.41 +.38%
Utilities 402.55 +.66%
Put/Call 1.16 -1.69%
NYSE Arms .72 -57.10%
Volatility(VIX) 13.47 -1.97%
ISE Sentiment 138.00 -19.77%
US Dollar 88.20 +.39%
CRB 323.13 +1.90%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.00 +1.32%
Unleaded Gasoline 206.00 +6.91%
Natural Gas 10.78 +10.29%
Heating Oil 190.50 +3.72%
Gold 441.70 -.09%
Base Metals 129.99 unch.
Copper 162.50 -1.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.16% -.41%
Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +3.57%
Steel +2.67%
Gold & Silver +1.75%
Lagging Sectors
REITs -.12%
Restaurants -.49%
Airlines -1.15%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet, Retail, Semiconductor and Computer longs. I added a few new longs this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is AMR Corp.(AMR) and I am using a $13 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is very positive given the damage from the hurricane. As I have surmised many times, the price of oil has substantially passed levels justified by the underlying fundamentals, as a speculative fervor not seen since the Internet bubble took over the commodity and related securities. The most massive storm the U.S. has seen in years just hit the area most vulnerable to energy supply disruptions and oil is up a $1.12 cents to $67.25, below the record $68 per barrel, which was seen just a few days ago. This may be the beginning of the "sell the news" phenomenon that I had anticipated as we reached a peak in hurricane and terrorism fears. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering and bargain hunting.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Hurricane Katrina came ashore along the Louisiana coast, sparing New Orleans a direct hit, as it weakened on a path toward Biloxi, Mississippi.
- This month’s decline in shares of US homebuilders, the steepest in three years, may be short-lived as companies benefit from record demand and earnings.
- Intelsat Ltd. agreed to buy PanAmSat Holding for $3.2 billion in cash to become the world’s largest commercial-satellite operator.
- OPEC may raise its production ceiling when the oil exporters group meets next month to try to reduce record prices.
- Hurricane Katrina may cost US insurers such as Allstate as much as $25 billion, making it the most expensive storm to ever hit the US.
- Patients given a statin drug within 24 hours of a heart attack increase their chances of survival by more than 50%, according to a UCLA study of more than 170,000 patients.
- US Treasuries rose as Hurricane Katrina sent crude oil prices above $70 a barrel, stoking speculation economic growth will slow.
- Hewlett-Packard said customers of its Snapfish online photo service can pick up prints in one hour at Walgreen stores, one of three new offerings aimed at expanding its printing business.
- The yen is falling against the US dollar after opinion polls showed Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi’s lead over the opposition slipping before next month’s election.
Wall Street Journal:
- Abercrombie & Fitch’s CEO Michael Jeffries sold stock in the teen clothing retailer ahead of the second-quarter report.
- US workers may be able to reduce their retirement tax burden through a new 401K pension plan starting from next year.
- Delphi, GM, Ford and Visteon may cut wages and thousands of jobs in cost-saving restructuring plans.
- Tango dancing with more fluid, callisthenic movements to the music of Massive Attack or Jimi Hendrix is sweeping the dance floors across the US.
- The US and Mexico may be close to ending a 15-year disagreement about US antidumping duties on Mexican cement, as shortages in the US prompt political pressure to increase imports.
NY Times:
- An increasing number of religious groups are broadcasting their services to users of Apple’s iPod.
NY Post:
- Microsoft officials have held talks in recent weeks with NY real estate brokers who have sold retail space in Times Square.
Crain’s NY Business:
- China’s Beijing Ventone Real Estate wants to acquire as much as 1 million square feet of Manhattan office space to create a center for Chinese companies.
LA Times:
- Actor George Clooney will announce plans today to build a $3 billion, 25-acre casino, boutique hotel and condominium project in Las Vegas.
- Hurricane Katrina came ashore along the Louisiana coast, sparing New Orleans a direct hit, as it weakened on a path toward Biloxi, Mississippi.
- This month’s decline in shares of US homebuilders, the steepest in three years, may be short-lived as companies benefit from record demand and earnings.
- Intelsat Ltd. agreed to buy PanAmSat Holding for $3.2 billion in cash to become the world’s largest commercial-satellite operator.
- OPEC may raise its production ceiling when the oil exporters group meets next month to try to reduce record prices.
- Hurricane Katrina may cost US insurers such as Allstate as much as $25 billion, making it the most expensive storm to ever hit the US.
- Patients given a statin drug within 24 hours of a heart attack increase their chances of survival by more than 50%, according to a UCLA study of more than 170,000 patients.
- US Treasuries rose as Hurricane Katrina sent crude oil prices above $70 a barrel, stoking speculation economic growth will slow.
- Hewlett-Packard said customers of its Snapfish online photo service can pick up prints in one hour at Walgreen stores, one of three new offerings aimed at expanding its printing business.
- The yen is falling against the US dollar after opinion polls showed Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi’s lead over the opposition slipping before next month’s election.
Wall Street Journal:
- Abercrombie & Fitch’s CEO Michael Jeffries sold stock in the teen clothing retailer ahead of the second-quarter report.
- US workers may be able to reduce their retirement tax burden through a new 401K pension plan starting from next year.
- Delphi, GM, Ford and Visteon may cut wages and thousands of jobs in cost-saving restructuring plans.
- Tango dancing with more fluid, callisthenic movements to the music of Massive Attack or Jimi Hendrix is sweeping the dance floors across the US.
- The US and Mexico may be close to ending a 15-year disagreement about US antidumping duties on Mexican cement, as shortages in the US prompt political pressure to increase imports.
NY Times:
- An increasing number of religious groups are broadcasting their services to users of Apple’s iPod.
NY Post:
- Microsoft officials have held talks in recent weeks with NY real estate brokers who have sold retail space in Times Square.
Crain’s NY Business:
- China’s Beijing Ventone Real Estate wants to acquire as much as 1 million square feet of Manhattan office space to create a center for Chinese companies.
LA Times:
- Actor George Clooney will announce plans today to build a $3 billion, 25-acre casino, boutique hotel and condominium project in Las Vegas.
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