Thursday, September 08, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day, Pressured by Homebuilders

Indices
S&P 500 1,231.18 -.42%
DJIA 10,584.87 -.46%
NASDAQ 2,165.43 -.30%
Russell 2000 673.11 -.62%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,311.10 -.40%
S&P Barra Growth 589.81 -.36%
S&P Barra Value 637.28 -.43%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.97 -.54%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 742.39 -.73%
Morgan Stanley Technology 504.08 +.06%
Transports 3,658.76 -.78%
Utilities 418.54 -.34%
Put/Call .87 +3.57%
NYSE Arms .94 +33.31%
Volatility(VIX) 12.71 +1.52%
ISE Sentiment 156.00 -9.83%
US Dollar 87.13 +.18%
CRB 322.70 -.46%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.70 -1.12%
Unleaded Gasoline 201.35 -.43%
Natural Gas 11.07 -1.17%
Heating Oil 190.75 -2.79%
Gold 450.60 +.36%
Base Metals 127.84 -1.34%
Copper 161.85 -1.73%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.13% -.09%

Leading Sectors %
Gold & Silver +1.36%
Semis +1.28%
Wireless +.56%

Lagging Sectors
Insurance -.87%
Retail -.93%
Homebuilders -2.0%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related shorts, Semiconductor longs, Internet longs and Airline longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is slightly negative given declines in the homebuilding sector. The average 30-year mortgage rate remained at 5.71% this week. This is down from 6.04% on April 1 and only 50 basis points away from record lows set in June 2003. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on short covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- New Orleans port director Gary LaGrange told CNBC that shipping traffic passing through the port is about 40% to 50% of normal.
- The US government may set aside $51.8 billion more in relief dollars for Hurricane Katrina recovery as New Orleans floodwaters recede from last week’s levels amid repairs to the city’s levees.
- Sears Holdings ousted CEO Alan Lacy and named Aylwin Lewis to succeed him after comparable sales at Sears and Kmart stores fell.
- US Treasuries are rising after a government report showed Japanese investors bought the most overseas bonds in six weeks, raising optimism that demand for debt will increase at an auction today.
- Boeing’s third-quarter profit may be reduced by at least 14 cents a share if a strike by machinists against the world’s No. 2 commercial-airline maker isn’t resolved by the end of the month, analysts said.
- Crude oil is falling again after a government report showed that US oil and petroleum product inventories declined less than expected in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
- The National Assoc. of Realtors was sued by US antitrust enforcers who accused the trade group of trying to restrain competition by restricting Internet brokers access to listings of home sales.
- GM will stop offering employee discounts to all buyers Sept. 30 and begin relying on lower list prices to sell 2006 models after sales fell in August.

Wall Street Journal:
- Insurers of offshore oil platforms and drilling rigs are likely to demand increases of more than 50% in premiums in the wake of the hurricane catastrophe on the US Gulf Coast, citing Charles Franks, an underwriter with Kiln Plc.
- News Corp. has agreed to pay $650 million for IGN Entertainment, a US video-games fan Internet company.
- EBay Inc. is in talks to buy Web telephone operator Skype Technologies SA for between $2 billion and $3 billion.
- Apple Computer’s latest member of its iPod portable music player family outperforms its maker’s specifications, Walt Mossberg wrote.
- Abbott Labs, Wyeth and Eli Lilly are among US drugmakers who bypassed the government to figure out how to quickly send medicine and equipment to clinics and hospitals helping victims of Hurricane Katrina.
- Insurers are facing pressure to should some of the cost of rebuilding flood-damaged homes along the US Gulf Coast, most of which lacked flood insurance.
- The NASDAQ stock market cut the fees it charges for listing closed-end mutual funds, as part of a contest to wrest market share from the NYSE, which dominates listings of such funds.

NY Times:
- Katrina will cost US farmers about $2 billion, citing the American Farm Bureau Federation.
- Fortune Brands is running television commercials for its Jim Beam bourbon for the first time in the brand’s 210-year history.

NY Post:
- The NASD asked companies to submit data on stock lending operations as part of a probe into illegal “naked” short selling.

Washington Post:
- US Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is drawing criticism from some who say she’s using the Hurricane Katrina catastrophe to raise he political profile.

RollCall.com:
- California Governor Schwarzenegger plans to announce next week that he will run for re-election.

Financial Times:
- President Bush’s administration has told US refiners to postpone scheduled maintenance to get the most out of gasoline production, citing unidentified senior refinery executives.

Jobless Claims Still Low, Wholesale Inventories Fall, Energy Inventories Fall Less Than Estimates

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 319K versus estimates of 315K and 320K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2593K versus estimates of 2582K and 2598K prior.
- Wholesale Inventories for July fell .1% versus estimates of a .6% increase and a .4% gain in June.
- The EIA reported crude inventories fell 6.45 million barrels vs. estimates of a 7.7 million barrel fall. Gasoline inventories fell 4.3 million barrels vs. estimates of a 6.25 million barrel decline. Distillate inventories fell 816,000 barrels vs. estimates of a 1.9 million barrel decline.
BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell to 319,000 last week, as people thrown out of work by Hurricane Katrina weren’t able to apply for benefits, Bloomberg said. According to the CBO, Hurricane Katrina may cost the US economy 400,000 jobs this year. The four-week moving average of jobless claims rose to 318,500 from 316,500 the prior week. The insured employment rate, which tracks the US unemployment rate, was unchanged at 2%. I expect initial jobless claims to begin spiking next week as Katrina victims are able to file.

Stockpiles at US wholesalers unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in more than a year, led by a drop in supplies at computer-equipment, metals and pharmaceutical companies, Bloomberg said. Drug stockpiles fell 4.9%, the most on record. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.18 months, the lowest since April. Inventories should begin increasing again as port problems in Louisiana improve.

The energy inventory data is not nearly as bad as feared. As well, AAA is saying that gasoline demand has “fallen off a cliff” over the last week.

Links of Interest

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Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Oil and gasoline shortages in some parts of the country caused by the destruction from Hurricane Katrina should end in about a week, Allan Hubbard, director of the US National Economic Council, told CNBC.
- Australian Prime Minister John Howard said the country will strengthen counter-terrorism laws and citizenship rules to help guard the country against terror attacks.
- Japan’s Prime Minister Koizumi may win Sept. 11 elections, gaining a mandate to sell state assets, including postal services, and giver private companies a bigger role in spurring the world’s No. 2 economy.

Financial Times:
- Wyeth, the US drugmaker, is in talks with the US government to help prepare for a future flu pandemic.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on PFE, MSFT, BSX and LVS.
- Reiterated Underperform on UST and TER.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.18%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.13%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
PLB/.03
BRL/.72
CBRL/.74
FLE/-.33
MATK/-.03
NSM/.22
ZQK/.20
SHLD/1.36
SLR/.04

Upcoming Splits
PCP 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 315K from 320K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2582K from 2607K prior.

9:30 am EST
- Platt's estimates weekly crude inventories fell 7 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell 6.5 million barrels, distillate inventories declined 2.5 million barrels and refinery utilization fell 11.5%.

10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for July are estimated to rise .6% versus a .7% gain in June.

3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for July is estimated to fall to $10.0B from $14.5B in June.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher as falling energy prices boosted exporters in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower, spurred by losses in the homebuilding stocks. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs on Energy Price Decline

Indices
S&P 500 1,236.36 +.24%
DJIA 10,633.50 +.42%
NASDAQ 2,172.03 +.24%
Russell 2000 677.32 +.42%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,360.66 +.28%
S&P Barra Growth 591.98 +.23%
S&P Barra Value 640.02 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.19 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 747.88 +.65%
Morgan Stanley Technology 503.79 +.65%
Transports 3,687.30 -.05%
Utilities 419.98 +.05%
Put/Call .84 -6.67%
NYSE Arms .71 +22.07%
Volatility(VIX) 12.52 -3.17%
ISE Sentiment 173.00 +53.10%
US Dollar 86.93 +.42%
CRB 324.19 -1.57%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.73 +.56%
Unleaded Gasoline 206.00 +1.87%
Natural Gas 11.25 +.44%
Heating Oil 198.70 +1.26%
Gold 448.60 -.09%
Base Metals 129.57 -.87%
Copper 164.70 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.13% +1.08%

Leading Sectors
Gaming +3.13%
Restaurants +2.57%
Networking +2.42%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.39%
Oil Tankers -.57%
REITs -.75%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Pixar, the computer-animation film studio run by Steven Jobs, will know in the “not-too-distant future” whether it will sign a distribution agreement with Walt Disney or another company, Jobs told CNBC.
- United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan knew about the corruption within the Iraqi/UN oil-for-food program and did little to stop the illegal activity, an inquiry led by former US Fed Chairman Paul Volcker said.
- The US economy expanded in the six weeks before Hurricane Katrina struck, led by car sales and tourism, even as the housing boom cooled and energy prices rose, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book report.
- The US Federal Emergency Management Agency will distribute $2,000 debit cards to survivors of Hurricane Katrina to use for emergency supplies.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Oil Tanker shorts, Internet longs, Medical Information System longs, Semiconductor longs and Medical Technology longs. I added to my GOOG long and VLO short in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline line finished slightly higher, most sectors gained and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was slightly positive given the decline in energy prices and rise in long-term rates. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.0% year-over-year last week despite the effects from Hurricane Katrina vs. a 3.7% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 18th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index has risen about 3% in two days.