Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Top-ranked golfer Tiger Woods earned almost $87 million last year and should become the sport’s first billionaire by 2010, according to a study by Golf Digest.
- An improvised bomb was found in a Starbucks(SBUX) coffee shop in San Francisco. The bomb was safely detonated today by city police.
- Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. became the first Chinese automaker to display vehicles at the Detroit auto show, part of an effort to drum up publicity for its plan to sell a $10,000 car in the US.
- South Korean scientist Hwang Woo Suk faked both his first and second papers on human stem-cell research, dashing hopes that his work is a breakthrough in treatments for diabetes and Parkinson’s disease.

Financial Times:
- Kirk Kerkorian adviser Jerry York will urge (GM) to reduce its dividend, citing people familiar with the move.

Yonhap News:
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is visiting China.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (TXN), (IDIX), (TRI) and (BSX).
- Reiterated Underperform on (ECL) and (PETM).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.25%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.28%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
(DNA).34
(SVU).50
(USM).38
(OXM).61

Upcoming Splits
(CERN) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for November are estimated to rise .5% versus a .2% increase in October,

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower on profit-taking after recent gains. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally modestly into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Monday, January 09, 2006

Stocks Finish Higher as Dow Jones Breaks 11,000 on Declining Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,290.15 +.37%
DJIA 11,011.90 +.48%
NASDAQ 2,318.69 +.57%
Russell 2000 706.24 +.98%
DJ Wilshire 5000 n/a
S&P Barra Growth 617.53 +.36%
S&P Barra Value 668.13 +.37%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 604.86 +.79%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 814.43 +.78%
Morgan Stanley Technology 553.11 -.03%
Transports 4,238.34 +.57%
Utilities 413.21 -.47%
Put/Call .68 +4.62%
NYSE Arms 1.07 +25.25%
Volatility(VIX) 11.13 +1.18%
ISE Sentiment 190.00 +23.38%
US Dollar 89.24 +.36%
CRB 337.33 -.63%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.42 -.13%
Unleaded Gasoline 176.15 -.35%
Natural Gas 9.51 +1.62%
Heating Oil 176.00 -.44%
Gold 550.50 unch.
Base Metals 157.61 +1.26%
Copper 210.10 +.19%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.37% -.14%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +3.48%
Disk Drives +2.85%
Biotech +1.79%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -.68%
Coal -.69%
HMOs -1.20%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed above 11,000 for the first time in more than four years, as a slide in oil prices helped extend a 2006 rally in stocks.
- Intel Corp.(INTC) urged the US Supreme Court to consider Research In Motion’s(RIMM) appeal of a patent-infringement finding against its BlackBerry e-mail devices, saying the case “cries out for clarification.”
- Federal Reserve policy makers are scaling back guidance on future interest-rate decisions because they don’t know the “full economic effect” of the 13 increases since June 2004, Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn said.

Financial Times:
- News Corp.(NWS) forecasts a surge in the revenue of the media company’s Internet businesses, citing Chairman Rupert Murdoch.
- A record 20 million music tracks were downloaded in the US from the Internet in the week ended Dec. 31 after a rise in the number of MP3 players sold in 2005, citing Neilson SoundScan.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today’s action was bullish considering the DJIA finally closed above 11,000 and consumer credit came in below expectations. These are the types of days that you want to see if you are bullish. Slow, grinding higher action, with the bears repeatedly sucked in. It still looks like stocks can head higher short-term before any real consolidation occurs.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- General Motors(GM) is “moving pretty fast” with its plan to sell a controlling stake in its finance unit.
- Vice President Cheney was taken to the George Washington Hospital early today experiencing shortness of breath.
- Israeli Prime Minister Sharon began breathing without a ventilator as doctors brought him out of a coma that was medically induced after he suffered a massive brain hemorrhage on Jan.4.
- General Motors(GM) will cut 2006 losses “significantly,” said CEO Rick Wagoner.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) agreed to sell its sensors and controls business to Bain Capital LLC for $3 billion as the company focuses on the faster-growing handset market.
- Crude oil is falling from a three-month high on speculation that heating-fuel consumption will plunge as higher-than-normal temperatures linger over the US.

Wall Street Journal:
- Bank of America(BAC) and PNC Financial Services(PNC) have received approval from US regulators to develop large hotel and office properties, a ruling that could let banks become more active investors in commercial real estate.
- Toyota Motor(TM) may build an engine plant in Michigan, possibly to help ward off criticism over its growing profit in the US.
- Playing songs backward in the US has begun to attract a cult following as new electronic software and Internet sites allow music lovers to hear supposed hidden messages in the lyrics.
- The discovery of statins used to lower cholesterol has sparked a return to research for drugs derived from plants and other natural organisms.
- Brazil’s offshore oil discoveries, coupled with rising production of ethanol, may make the South American nation energy-independent this year.
- Technology companies may be poised for a comeback in the number of IPOs in the US this year, as young companies gain experience.
- Clear Channel Communications(CCU) will allow people to get free music videos from its radio-station Web site, starting today, if they watch a 15-second ad.
- Starwood Hotels(HOT) and Yahoo Inc.(YHOO) said they will begin testing Yahoo Internet lounges in two Sheraton hotels today.
- Tyco’s(TYC) board meets this week to approve a plan that could break up the company, undoing the $60 billion business built up by former CEO Kozlowski.

Chronicle of Higher Education:
- State spending for higher education in the US rose 5.3% to $66.6 billion in the 2005-06 school year, the fastest rate in five years.

NY Times:
- Duke Energy(DUK) is near an agreement to sell its North American power-generation business to LS Power Group, an investment firm, for $1.5 billion.
- About 12.5% of New Yorkers have diabetes, a proportion that exceeds that in the US as a whole by almost a third.

Advertising Age:
- The NFL, citing risqué marketing, won’t renew its $18 million sponsorship agreement with the marketers of Levitra and is distancing itself from other drugs that treat male impotence.

Economic Releases

- None of note

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) said January same-store sales are rising within its forecast.
- President Bush urged the US Congress to slow the growth of spending on entitlement programs and suggested that Democrats who oppose extending tax cuts risk undermining the economy.
- Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor and Honda Motor are posed to sell at least 19 new and redesigned vehicle models in the US this year, their biggest-ever roll-out.
- US two-year Treasury yields will fall at a faster pace than those on 10-year notes as the Federal Reserve moves closer to ending its 18-month policy of raising interest rates, say some of the world’s biggest bond investors.
- Democratic Senators Edward Kennedy and Charles Schumer said they haven’t ruled out staging a filibuster to block confirmation of Judge Samuel A. Alito to the US Supreme Court.
- Boston Scientific(BSX), which waited to bid for Guidant(GDT) until Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) forced the price down, moved to seal its $25 billion purchase of the troubled cardiac device maker.
- The US doubled its supplies of food aid to survivors of the Oct. 8 earthquake that struck Pakistan’s northern Kashmir region as snow storms interrupted deliveries by air and road to mountain villages.
- Coal is likely to decline this year from a record because of increased exports from Indonesia, South Africa and Australia.

Barron’s:
- Vonage Holdings, Force10 Networks and Synarc are among technology and health-care companies backed by venture-capital firms that may sell shares to the pubic this year.

Wall Street Journal:
- Viacom’s(VIA) Paramount Pictures business is in exclusive talks to sell the DreamWorks(DWA) movie library to George Soros’ private equity fund.

NY Times:
- General Motors(GM) expects its billion-dollar losses at its North American business to begin to “moderate” this quarter as cost cuts take effect.
- The UN World Food Program ended all feeding programs in North Korea after the government told it to stop efforts that had helped a third of the 22 million people there.
- The Environmental Protection Agency will announce changes in how it calculates fuel-economy ratings for cars and trucks, the first revisions in 20 years.
- Companies in the S&P 500 spent $315 billion to buy back shares last year, a 60% increase from 2004.
- Eastman Kodak(EK) CEO Perez said the camera company is increasing its revenue and profit from digital photography.
- The US and several European allies sought to encourage China and Russia to join their efforts to put political pressure on Iran to end its suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons.
- The city of New Orleans’ official redevelopment plan to recover from Hurricane Katrina envisions allowing all areas of the city to be rebuilt no matter how bad the damage.

Crain’s Chicago Business:
- Google Inc.(GOOG) is paying to run ads for its advertisers in the Chicago Sun-Times.

Washington Post:
- An increasing number of Christian evangelicals are embracing “philo-Semitism,” the opposite of anti-Semitism, fueled by common beliefs shared by Jews and Christians.

LA Times:
- Shanghai’s hot housing market has fizzled after a run-up fed by speculators, threatening a significant part of China’s economy.

Time magazine:
- CIA Director Porter Goss is cracking down on information leaks from within the US intelligence agency by banning current officers from writing books and ordering stricter reviews of books by retired agents.

Interfax:
- Ukraine said its natural gas supply agreement with Russia is a good one even as it pays double for the fuel, citing Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (BLK).
- Had negative comments on (RL).

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (BSX) and (MSFT).
- Reiterated Underperform on (JBLU) and (TFX).

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
(AA).37
(SCHN).85
(TDS).29

Upcoming Splits
(PTC) 3-for-2
(CERN) 2-for-1
(E) 5-for-2
(PSYS) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for November is estimated to rise to $5.0 billion versus -$7.2 billion in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by commodity producing companies in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rise into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.