Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Intel Corp.(INTC) CEO Paul Otellini, pressured by investors to fix the chipmaker’s flagging fortunes, is scrapping his old boss’s biggest projects.
- Venture Capital firms are betting big on solar and biofuel companies in a green energy frenzy.
- UK house prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in June, suggesting a revival in the $6 trillion property market may continue into the second half.
- Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani dismissed US and European calls to accelerate its decision over whether to accept trade and technology incentives in return for suspending its uranium enrichment program.
- US senators, hearing testimony yesterday that fraud is widespread in the $1.2 trillion hedge-fund industry, said the private investment partnerships may need more scrutiny form federal regulators and law enforcement.
- The US Supreme Court ruled that President Bush lacks authority to try Guantanamo Bay inmates before military tribunals, a blow to the administration’s anti-terrorism strategy that scales back presidential wartime powers.

Wall Street Journal:
- Symantec(SYMC) is in a $1 billion legal dispute with the IRS involving dealings with two related companies.
- Google(GOOG) will start operating in Cairo with a view to that city becoming the company’s hub for the Arabic-speaking Middle East.
- European politicians who criticize the US for allegedly violating the rights of “jihadist terrorists” at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba are more concerned with attacking America than in helping to fight terrorism, said Denis MacShane, British Labour Party Member of the Parliament.
- Pfizer Inc.(PFE) plans to produce a discounted generic version of Zoloft after the antidepressant loses its domestic patent protection tomorrow.

AP:
- Japan wants all its cars to run on ethanol-blended gasoline by 2030 to mitigate crude oil costs.

NY Times:
- RSA Security(RSAS) is close to an agreement to be bought by either data storage company EMC Corp.(EMC) or at least one other company in a transaction that may top $1.8 billion.

LA Times:
- Officials for the ports of LA and Long Beach have introduced an air pollution control plan that could reduce diesel pollution from cargo ships, trains, and trucks by more than half.

Financial Times:
- Many hedge funds have seen gains made earlier this year wiped out in June’s global market declines, citing performance figures obtained from funds and investors.

La Tribune:
- Dell Inc.(DELL) will grow faster than its industry in the long term and profitability will remain higher than that of competitors, CEO Rollins said.

1Q GDP Booms, Job Market Still Healthy

- Final 1Q GDP rose 5.6% versus estimates of a 5.6% gain and a prior estimate of a 5.3% rise.
- Final 1Q GDP Price Index rose 3.1% versus estimates of a 3.3% increase and prior estimates of a 3.3% increase.
- Final 1Q Personal Consumption rose 5.1% versus estimates of 5.2% and prior estimates of a 5.2% increase.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose 313K versus estimates of 310K and 309K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2409K versus estimates of 2430K and 2355K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: The US economy boomed at an annual rate of 5.6% in the first quarter, propelled by a surge in consumer spending, Bloomberg reported. Business investment rose at the fastest pace in six years. Inventory rebuilding, along with robust profits, should continue to spur corporate spending over the intermediate-term. The core PCE index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 2% for the quarter. I expect second quarter GDP to rise around average levels, consumption to moderate and the core PCE to decelerate.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits in the US rose last week while remaining at a level that suggests strength in the labor market, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 305,500 from 311,500 the prior week. The four-week average of total benefit rolls fell to 2.39 million, the lowest in almost 6 years. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, rose to 1.9% from 1.8% the prior week. I continue to believe the labor market will remain healthy without generating substantial unit labor cost increases over the intermediate-term.

Links of Interest

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Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia’s largest steelmaker, cut its full-year profit estimate for the third time this year. Its shares fell the most in three months.
- The American public has turned against the Fed’s two-year campaign of interest-rate increases, concerned it may hurt the economy by slowing growth, a Bloomberg/LA Times poll shows.

Financial Times:
- Dell Inc.(DELL) has reorganized its Americas division after several quarters of worse-than-expected results, citing an interview with CEO Rollins.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ACN)/.46
- (AM)/.26
- (CA)/.20
- (STZ)/.32
- (GIS)/.61
- (MON)/1.20
- (PALM)/.23
- (WOR)/.40

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Final 1Q GDP is estimated to rise 5.6% versus a prior estimate of a 5.3% gain.
- Final 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 3.3% versus a prior estimate of a 3.3% gain.
- Final 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 5.2% versus a prior estimate of a 5.2% gain.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 310K versus 308K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2430K versus 2439K prior.

2:15 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate 25 basis points to 5.25%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to build on gains into the afternoon, finishing higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Highs ahead of Fed Announcement

Indices
S&P 500 1,246.00 +.55%
DJIA 10,973.56 +.45%
NASDAQ 2,111.84 +.55%
Russell 2000 688.04 +.16%
Wilshire 5000 12,518.20 +.47%
S&P Barra Growth 576.40 +.49%
S&P Barra Value 667.92 +.60%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.92 +.10%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 802.08 +.41%
Morgan Stanley Technology 481.19 +.58%
Transports 4,730.60 +.56%
Utilities 408.63 +.51%
Put/Call .83 -15.31%
NYSE Arms .75 -50.36%
Volatility(VIX) 15.79 -3.72%
ISE Sentiment 140.00 -2.78%
US Dollar 86.67 +.23%
CRB 338.19 +.33%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 72.34 +.21%
Unleaded Gasoline 220.59 +.34%
Natural Gas 5.88 -3.60%
Heating Oil 194.60 +.44%
Gold 581.20 +.03%
Base Metals 205.08 +1.37%
Copper 315.05 -1.15%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.24% +.83%

Leading Sectors
Energy +1.82%
Gaming +1.62%
Steel +1.44%

Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -.94%
Airlines -.99%
Restaurants -1.15%

Evening Review
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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
CSFB:
- Rated (FRX) and (BRL) Outperform.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A tsunami alert system for nations bordering the Indian Ocean is up and running, 18 months after deadly waves triggered by an earthquake slammed into 12 nations across the region and killed an estimated 220,000 people.
- BP Plc(BP) manipulated the price of propane used to heat homes and businesses in the northeastern US in February 2004 and tried to do the same in April 2003, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.
- Walt Disney(DIS) named former Procter & Gamble CEO John E. Pepper as its non-executive chairman, succeeding former US Senator George Mitchell.
- Henry Paulson, confirmed today by the US Senate to become Treasury Secretary, said faster global economic growth will help reduce lopsided global trade and investment flows.

AP:
- Sunni insurgents offered to stop attacks on US-led military forces in Iraq if the Iraqi government and President Bush set a two-year deadline for withdrawing all foreign troops.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) aims to win Dell Inc.(DELL) as a customer for its personal computer chips after agreeing to equip Dell servers, citing AMD strategist Margaret Lewis.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Retail longs and Biotech longs. I covered some of my (EEM), (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts earlier in the day, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline line finished slightly higher, sector performance was mixed and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bullish. A number of market leading stocks posted outsized gains. As well, bears were unable to capitalize on yesterday's weakness. The 4-basis-point rise in the 10-year yield likely capped an otherwise more vigorous rally. I suspect long-term rates may fall on tomorrow's Fed rate hike. Natural gas is trading at new cycle lows, falling another 4%. I continue to expect stocks to finish the last two days strongly.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said he expects an “overwhelming majority” of senators to vote tomorrow for Henry Paulson to be the next US Treasury secretary.
- DaimlerChrysler AG plans to sell the two-seat Smart mini-car in the US, betting a fuel-efficient vehicle that fits on a pool table will help end eight years of losses at is Smart division.
- Russian President Putin told his security services to find and kill those responsible for the deaths of four Russian diplomats in Iraq.
- Pessimism about US stocks rose to the highest level since October 2002 last week, according to Investors Intelligence, a very bullish development.
- The US government needs to step in and regulate the $1.2 trillion hedge-fund industry or states will “join forces” and oversee the private investment pools, the attorney general of Connecticut told senators.
- US Dept. of Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman announced today that the DOE has approved two loan requests totaling 750,000 barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to two Louisiana refineries.

Wall Street Journal:
- US money managers are gaining enthusiasm for large-capitalization stocks and losing interest in small-cap shares.
- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, the world’s biggest lender by assets, is in talks with the US Fed about obtaining “financial holding company” status, a move that would allow the Japanese bank to expand into underwriting, insurance and investment banking in the US.
- A small group of hedge fund managers is heading a campaign to deter Congress and the SEC from tightening regulations over the business.
- HJ Heinz(HNZ) is trying to rebuild relations with McDonald’s 33 years after being cut off for not supplying enough ketchup during a tomato shortage.
- Two Detroit-area auto dealers are offering modified versions of the Hummer H2 and H3 they say can get 25 miles per gallon in highway traffic compared with the usual 19 to 20.
- United Parcel Service(UPS) and the US Postal Service reached an agreement on a deal that will put mail on UPS planes and may improve the post office’s reliability.
- US securities firms face two civil antitrust lawsuits in connection with the part they allegedly play in “naked short-selling.”

USA Today:
- 33% US adults said they are changing their summer vacation plans because of higher gas prices.

AP:
- Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban and Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino have joined a bid to buy the NHL’s Pittsburgh Penguins.

NY Times:
- President Bush’s administration will issue new welfare rules today that will prompt states to move more people from welfare to work, representing the biggest policy change since 1996.
- Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said the country’s new amnesty plan won’t allow pardons for people who attacked US soldiers “out of respect” for their contributions.
- The US Episcopal Church may lose full membership of the Anglican Communion if it doesn’t renounce same-sex unions and gay bishops, citing the Church of England’s Archbishop of Canterbury.
- Three-time heavyweight boxing champ Muhammad Ali plans to introduce a line of reduced-calorie snacks and beverages aimed at curbing youth obesity.

Washington Post:
- Military commanders said they expect to reach their target of training and equipping more than 325,000 members of the new Iraqi security forces by the end of the year.

Daily Telegraph:
- Global mergers and acquisitions activity may reach a record $3,500 billion this year, citing Thomson Financial.

Wall Street Journal Asia:
- China’s cabinet plans a two-day meeting this year to set new policies for the nation’s financial system.