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Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Home Depot(HD) altered its management structure to remove the layer between the store leaders and CEO Bob Nardelli.
- The University of Chicago Graduate School of Business is the best in the US, according to a Business Week survey of best business schools.
- An initial vaccination for avian influenza may prime people’s immune systems to respond better to subsequent shots against different variations of bird flu, according to a University of Rochester study.
- The US can stop importing oil by 2030 with policies that support converting coal to liquid fuels, farming more crops to make ethanol and improving vehicle efficiency, said governors of Montana and West Virginia.

Reuters:
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said he would support a cut in interest rates if the US economy stalls, citing an interview with Poole. The risk of inflation has eased “a bit” in the past eight to ten weeks, citing Poole. He sees more risk to growth than prices.

Wall Street Journal:
- China’s main government-backed labor body will push companies including Eastman Kodak(EK) and Dell Inc.(DELL) to install unions after success with Wal-Mart Stores(WMT).

London-based Times:
- Amaranth Advisors LLC’s collapse after losing $6.5 billion betting on natural gas was “anything but unforeseeable,” citing Christopher Fawcett, director of hedge fund manager Fauchier Partners. Amaranth is dismantling after its two main funds fell as much as 70% in September, the most costly collapse ever for hedge-fund investors.

China Securities Journal:
- China’s money supply growth slowed last month and the amount of new yuan lending decreased. M2, the broadest measure of money supply rose 16.8% last month compared with 17.9% in August.

AP:
- The Islamist Hamas movement wants to join a coalition Palestinian government even though it will not recognize Israel, citing the group’s exiled political leader Khaled Mashaal.

Daily Yomiuri:
- Japan raised its security alert to protect itself against the threat of terrorist attacks by North Korean agents.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Business Week:
- Nu Skin Enterprises(NUS), a direct seller of skin-care products, may rise 42% because sales will increase on a new license to sell goods in China, citing Heartland Advisors’ Rodney Hathaway, who owns shares.
- NewAlliance Bancshares(NAL), a $7 billion regional bank in Connecticut, has climbed about $15 a share, close to a 52-week high, because of takeover speculation, citing Collyn Gilbert of investment firm Ryan Beck.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.07%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (GE)/.49
- (JBHT)/.37
- (RF)/.71

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
- The Import Price Index for September is estimated to fall 1.3% versus a .8% rise in August.
- Advance Retail Sales for September are estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% gain in August.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for September are estimated to rise 0.0% versus a .2% gain in August.

10:00 am EST:
- The Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for October is estimated to rise to 86.5 versus a reading of 85.4 in September.
- Business Inventories for August are estimated to rise .5% versus a .6% gain in July.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Surges to Another All-Time High as 12,000 Approaches

Indices
S&P 500 1,362.83 +.95%
DJIA 11,947.70 +.81%
NASDAQ 2,346.18 +1.64%
Russell 2000 757.09 +2.07%
Wilshire 5000 13,628.70 +1.07%
S&P Barra Growth 631.36 +.94%
S&P Barra Value 729.50 +.97%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 656.91 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 852.58 +.88%
Morgan Stanley Technology 549.63 +1.38%
Transports 4,645.49 +1.15%
Utilities 434.70 +.37%
Put/Call .82 -9.89%
NYSE Arms .73 -18.03%
Volatility(VIX) 11.09 -4.56%
ISE Sentiment 123.0 unch.
US Dollar 86.90 -.25%
CRB 299.73 +.64%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.24 +1.13%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.21 +.81%
Natural Gas 5.78 -5.97%
Heating Oil 169.72 +1.50%
Gold 582.50 +.38%
Base Metals 237.62 +1.20%
Copper 338.65 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.76% -.21%

Leading Sectors
Restaurants +3.08%
Airlines +2.90%
Steel +2.56%

Lagging Sectors
Foods +.42%
Utilities +.37%
Insurance +.32%

Evening Review
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Afternoon Recommendations
Merrill Lynch:
- Upgraded (TWX) to Buy.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks soared, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 11,900 for the first time in history, as earnings from companies including McDonald’s Corp.(MCD) eased concern that analysts’ profit estimates are too high.
- President Bush said the US must keep its focus on finding alternative energy sources despite the recent plunge in gas prices.
- Natural gas prices plunged another 6% in NY after a US report showed storage supplies of the fuel surged to the highest level ever.
- The Federal Reserve said consumer spending and demand for services quickened across the US last month even with “widespread cooling” in the housing market, evidence the economy may be poised for a so-called soft landing.

Wall Street Journal:
- Most private economists in a Wall Street Journal survey favored stricter regulations for hedge funds and said they pose a risk to financial markets.

ABC News:
- The British suspects accused of plotting to blow up flights headed from London to the US planned to hide their detonators inside hollowed-out AA batteries.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Medical longs, Semi longs and Retail longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, every sector rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish. The 10-year yield was stable throughout the day despite soaring stocks and the Beige Book report. Oil still trades heavy and natural gas appears to have begun another move lower. I expect tomorrow's economic reports to further paint an economic picture of moderate growth and inflation. I sense we are in the very early stages of putting an end to the "U.S. secular bear" mentality that is so pervasive in today's investing environment. There is still massive bull firepower available on the sidelines.

DJIA Surging to Another All-Time High, Approching 12,000, on "Goldilocks" Fed Beige Book and Strong Earnings

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Computer longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, every sector is rising and volume is about average. Yesterday, the vast majority of headlines in the U.S. media were overwhelmingly negative. Today, another DJIA all-time high. The magnitude of the negativity bubble is such that I sense many bears don't even realize how complacent they have become. It is just assumed that U.S. stocks can't go higher and that there is no serious rationale behind any positive argument. I continue to believe we are in the middle of a substantial move higher in the major averages. DJIA 12,000 should give way over the next few weeks with relative ease. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, investment manager performance anxiety and stabilizing long rates.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- US stocks are rallying, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to another new all-time high on strong earnings reports.
- Crude oil was little changed after falling to the lowest this year amid speculation that OPEC will fail to reduce supplies to halt plunging prices.
- Natural gas plunged another 6% in NY after a US report showed stored supplies of the fuel surged to the highest level in history.
- Wachovia Corp.(WB) and Mellon Financial(MEL) are competing to buy MFS Investment Management, the Boston-based mutual-fund unit of Sun Life Financial.
- Harley-Davidson(HOG) said third-quarter profit rose 18% on demand for its highest-priced models.
- McDonald’s(MCD) said third-quarter profit increased more than analysts anticipated on rising European sales and a new $1.29 chicken-snack wrap in the US.
- Morgan Stanley(MS) asked two bankers to leave after they distributed an e-mail critical of Singapore that cost Andy Xie, the firm’s former chief economist in Asia, his job. Xie left Morgan Stanley after he characterized Singapore as an economic failure dependent on illicit money from Indonesia and China.
- A British Muslim today pleaded guilty to plotting to carry out a series of deadly terror attacks in the US and the UD, targeting sites including the NYSE, the World Bank and Citigroup(C).

Wall Street Journal:
- More French farmers are growing genetically modified corn, in a reversal of previous attitudes, a move that is also attracting increasing numbers of protesters.
- Yahoo!’s(YHOO) bid to acquire Facebook Inc. have become bogged down.
- A new offer by Apollo Management LP and Texas Pacific Group of $15.5 billion for casino operator Harrah’s Entertainment(HET) may not be enough to convince management.
- IAC/InterActiveCorp’s(IACI) Ask.com is offering a free mobile service to cellular phone, BlackBerry and PDA users that will enable Internet searches with Web-enabled devices.
- Palm Inc.(PALM) plans to release its fourth smart-phone model this year called Treo 680 today to appeal to non-business customers.

NY Times:
- Discount clothing retailers based in Mid-western US states such as Kohls Corp.(KSS) and Wal-Mart(WMT) are opening offices in Manhattan to recruit fashion designers and stay ahead of trends.
- In the past decade, 16 US states have become more lenient on voting restrictions for felons, changing voting rights for more than 600,000 people. The loosening of such restrictions may benefit Democrats because a majority of ex-prisoners may favor the party, citing voting experts.
- San Francisco hedge fund Artis Capital Management LLP, which manages more than $1.2 billion, had invested in YouTube Inc.

Washington Post:
- Iraq’s parliament yesterday approved a law allowing the oil-rich nation to be divided into a federation of autonomous regions.

AP:
- Genetic Savings & Clone, a company founded in 2000 in California to create clones of pets, is to close by year’s end because of a lack of business.

Financial Times:
- US discount broker Charles Schwab(SCHW) will start a private-client unit in the UK, as it ventures further into wealth-management operations overseas.

Kyodo News:
- North Korea official Song Il Ho said the government will take “strong countermeasures” should Japan proceed with sanctions against the communist country for its apparent nuclear weapon test.

Market News Intl.:
- European Central Bank council member Nout Wellink said he expects inflation to fall below 2% in 2008 as a result of higher interest rates.

Interfax:
- Kazakhstan, the second-largest oil producer in the former Soviet Union, increased crude oil production 6.7% in the first nine months.
- Kazakhstan’s coal output climbed 11% in the first nine months.

Trade Deficit Widens as Consumer Spending Remains Strong, Job Market Still Healthy

- The Trade Deficit for August widened to -$69.9 billion versus estimates of -$66.7 billion and -$68.0 billion in July.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last were 308K versus estimates of 311K and 304K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims were 2445K versus estimates of 2445K and 2440K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: The US trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $69.9 billion in August on a surge in imports related to strong consumer spending in the US, Bloomberg reported. US exports rose 2.3% to $122.4 billion. Consumer products imported rose $678 million to an all-time high in August, boosted by apparel, TVs and appliances. The value of crude oil imports rose to $27.2 billion as the average price of oil increased to $66.12/bbl. from $64.84. Oil has since plunged over 20% which should help lower the trade deficit going forward.

First-time claims for jobless benefits rose slightly last week from a 2-month low to a level that is still consistent with a resilient labor market, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 313,250 from 314,000 the prior week. Economists are now saying weekly jobless claims may be a better gauge of the health of the job market after the Labor Department disclosed last week that it had undercounted payrolls by almost 1 million workers over the last 12 months. The unemployment rate is 4.6%, low by historic standards. The unemployment rate among those eligible for jobless benefits, which tracks the unemployment rate, held steady at a low 1.9%. Job growth is averaging 137,000 a month so far this year, above the 100,000 needed to keep unemployment from rising. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor costs increases.