Friday, March 30, 2007

Personal Income/Spending Surges, Core PCE Above Estimates, Chicago PMI Jumps Most on Record, Confidence Slightly Below Estimates

- Personal Income for February rose .6% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a 1.0% rise in January.
- Personal Spending for February rose .6% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .5% rise in January.
- The PCE Core for February rose .3% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .2% rise in January.
- The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for March rose to 61.7 versus estimates of 49.3 and a reading of 47.9 in February.
- The Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for March fell to 88.4 versus estimates of 88.5 and a prior estimate of 88.8.
BOTTOM LINE: Consumer spending and incomes rose more than expected last month, Bloomberg reported. The report suggests the US economy will continue to weather the slump in housing. The PCE Core for February, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 2.4% year-over-year versus a 2.2% rise in January. I continue to believe consumer spending is accelerating into the spring as income growth substantially outpaces inflation and Americans’ median net worth is at all-time high levels.

A gauge of US business activity unexpectedly expanded this month at the fastest pace in almost two years, signaling the economy may be gaining momentum heading into the second quarter, Bloomberg said. The increase was the largest since at least 1968 when record-keeping began. Readings greater than 50 indicate expansion. A surge in orders and production gains point to the US economy overcoming the drag of housing on manufacturing. The New Orders component of the index also gained the most in history, soaring from 48.7 to 72.2. The Inventories component of the index fell to 48.8 from 54.5, which shows inventories are falling. The Employment component of the index fell to 45 from 50.6 the prior month. The Prices Paid component fell to 59.1 from 63.2 the prior month. I continue to believe the worst of the manufacturing slowdown is over and that inventory rebuilding in the second quarter will help boost overall economic growth.

US construction spending unexpectedly rose last month by the most in almost a year, as work increased on factories, commercial buildings and highways, Bloomberg said. Commercial and government-funded construction spending more than offset the drag from declining residential construction. Non-residential construction, including public projects rose 13.6% year-over-year in February. Private non-residential construction is being supported by corporate hiring that has resulted in increased demand for office space and decreased vacancy rates. I expect residential construction spending to remain a drag on overall construction throughout the year, notwithstanding February’s increase.

Consumer confidence fell slightly more than expected in March as gas prices rose, Bloomberg reported. The current conditions component of the index fell from 103.5 from 106.7 in February. Gasoline prices rose to $2.59/gallon on March 26 from $2.40 at the end of February. While recent confidence readings have declined modestly, consumer spending appears to be accelerating as unemployment remains low and wages outpace inflation. I still expect confidence to make new cycle highs later this year as gas prices fall, interest rates remain low, inflation decelerates further, the job market remains healthy, housing sales stabilize at relatively high levels and stock prices rise further.

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Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Thailand’s inflation probably slowed to the lowest in three years in March as consumption stalled amid a slump in confidence and protests against the military-backed government.
- Dissident investors led by OppenheimerFunds won control of Take-Two Interactive(TTWO) and installed a new CEO.
- Japan’s household spending rose at double the pace forecast by analysts and industrial production fell less than expected in February.
- Japan’s consumer prices fell for the first time in 10 months and economists say further declines will keep the central bank from raising interest rates until the second half of the year.
- Toyota Motor(TM) employees in Kentucky are being courted by the United Auto Workers union, which so far has failed to organize any US factories built by Japanese automakers.
- MMC Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest producer of the metal, said the market may be in surplus this year on increasing “unconventional” supplies from China.
- Los Angeles billionaires Ron Burkle and Eli Broad raised their takeover bid for Tribune(TRB) to $34 a share, topping an offer by Sam Zell.
- China produced 27% more copper in 2006 than the official estimate because government statistics didn’t include output from the country’s smallest refineries, China Minmetals Corp. said. The discovery of 26.8 million tons of new copper deposits will offset the country’s “heavy dependency” on imports of the metal and copper prices will fall, said Huang Guoping, vp of China Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co., a unit of the country’s biggest metals trader.
- The UN Security Council today expressed concern at the detention of 15 British sailors and marines seized by Iran in the Persian Gulf and asked that they be released.
- Amaranth Advisors LLC, the hedge-fund firm that collapsed under a record $6.6 billion in losses in September, was sued by the San Diego County retirement fund. The San Diego County Employees Retirement Association filed a complaint today in federal court in NY that names Amaranth founder Nicholas Maounis, former energy trader Brian Hunter and other fund executives.
- President Pervez Musharraf has failed to tackle Islamic extremism in Pakistan’s religious schools, which continue to promote a holy war against the West and foment terrorism, the International Crisis Group said.
- China National Petroleum and Argentina’s Pluspetrol SA discovered a new oil deposit in the northern Peruvian Jungle, Peru’s Energy Minister said.
- Joseph Brusuelas, chief US economist at IDEAglobal, said US subprime mortgage problems will not spread and economic growth will firm up mid-year.

Business Week:
- Cerberus Capital Management LP, a private-equity firm that was bidding for Chrysler Group jointly with Magna Intl., has called off the partnership. Instead, Magna, which is still interested in a minority stake in Chrysler, is teaming up with NY-based Ripplewood Holdings. Chrysler is receiving bids of more than $6 billion.

Financial Times:
- Man Group Plc will today announce plans for the stock-exchange listing of its US-based brokerage unit, which could be valued at $5 billion.

Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s economic growth will slow to 10% this year while inflation will accelerate to about 2.3%, the central bank’s research bureau forecast in a report published in today’s China Securities Journal. The Chinese central bank will sell more bills, raise bank reserve ratios and boost interest rates to curb excess liquidity, according to the report.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Upgraded (RATE) to Buy, target $44.
- Reiterated Buy on (LNCR), target $48.

Sanford C. Bernstein:
- Sun Microsystems(SUNW) would most likely team up with Dell Inc.(DELL) should the world’s third-largest server-computer maker decide to boost its support services business.

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Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
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NASDAQ 100 indicated +.04%.

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Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for February is estimated to rise .3% versus a 1.0% gain in January.
- Personal Spending for February is estimated to rise .3% versus a .5% increase in January.
- The PCE Core for February is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% increase in January.

9:45 am EST
- The Chicago Purchasing Manager for March is estimated to rise to 49.4 versus 47.9 in February.

10:00 am EST
- Construction Spending for February is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.8% decline in January.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to fall to 88.5 from 88.8 in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Stocks Finish Higher Despite Iran Concerns

Indices
S&P 500 1,422.53 +.37%
DJIA 12,348.75 +.39%
NASDAQ 2,417.88 +.03%
Russell 2000 798.94 +.19%
Wilshire 5000 14,360.64 +.32%
Russell 1000 Growth 558.37 +.16%
Russell 1000 Value 824.58 +.50%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 701.34 +.38%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 954.11 +.50%
Morgan Stanley Technology 556.37 -.09%
Transports 4,802.51 +.18%
Utilities 503.37 +.38%
MSCI Emerging Markets 116.30 +1.54%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call 1.16 -12.78%
NYSE Arms .98 -37.15%
Volatility(VIX) 15.14 +1.07%
ISE Sentiment 92.0 -13.21%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.13 +3.17%
Reformulated Gasoline 213.30 +3.68%
Natural Gas 7.62 -.68%
Heating Oil 187.70 +2.71%
Gold 667.50 -.80%
Base Metals 243.92 -.39%
Copper 309.05 +.91%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.64% +2 basis point
US Dollar 83.07 +.05%
CRB Index 317.73 +1.07%

Leading Sectors
Steel +3.49%
Oil Service +1.23%
Telecom +1.05%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -.86%
HMOs -1.49%
Coal -2.87%

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Afternoon Recommendations
SunTrust Robinson:
- Rated (SXE) and (ELY) Buy.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Treasuries declined modestly after US economic growth came in above prior estimates and jobless claims fell.
- Dell Inc.(DELL) said it found evidence of misconduct and errors in its accounting amid investigations into the computer maker’s financial results. The shares fell .60 to 22.84 in after-hours trading.
- Beazer Homes USA(BZH) received a grand jury subpoena from the US Attorney’s office in the Western District of North Carolina for documents related to its mortgage origination business. The stock is trading down .29 to $29 in after-hours trading.
- Bear Stearns(BSC) said the surge of defaults in subprime home loans won’t spread to other parts of the mortgage market, and IndyMac Bancop said losses from more creditworthy customers are far below industry averages.
- Dendreon Corp.’s(DNDN) prostate cancer drug Provenge was recommended for approval by a US regulatory panel that found it safe and “substantially” effective.
- McClatchy(MNI) is in talks to form advertising partnerships with Google(GOOG), Yahoo!(YHOO) and Microsoft(MSFT) to grab a greater share of Internet spending, CEO Gary Pruitt said.
- 54% of Americans said they’re happy the Democrats won control of Congress, down 6 percentage points since November, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center.
- Crude oil rose above $66/bbl. in NY, closing at a six month high, as speculators raised bets over the potential for production disruptions.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished about even today as losses in my Retail longs and Telecom longs were offset by gains in my Medical longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was neutral today as the advance/decline line finished about even, sector performance was mixed and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were above average into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bullish as the major averages and breadth finish mixed, but well off session lows. The underlying tone was never too bad, even with the market at its intraday low. Considering the jump in oil, today's market action was more impressive. I suspect we will build on this afternoon's gains tomorrow, notwithstanding any morning weakness on quarter-end short-covering and bargain hunting.

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour Ahead of Quarter's End

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Telecom long and Retail longs. I covered my(IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges into afternoon weakness, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Overall, economic data has improved modestly of late, notwithstanding fears by many over an economic hard landing. Oil is $5 higher since the Iranian/UK situation began, which is a rather muted reaction, and commercials continue to build their net short position into recent strength. Moreover, the price of gold has a very high correlation with oil. However, the two have diverged in price of late. Natural gas inventories fell -22 bcf this week versus estimates of a -19 bcf withdrawal. Supplies are now 21.5% above the five-year average for this time of year and poised to hit record highs barring any significant disruptions. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering and bargain-hunting ahead of quarter’s end.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- China, the world’s biggest nickel user, produced 15.1% more of the industrial metal, used in stainless steel, in February compared with the year ago month. Output in the first two months rose 16.8% to 20,400 tons.
- Crude oil is rising above $66/bbl. in NY, approaching a six-month high, as investment fund speculation is increasing on Iran concerns.
- The Senate approved a spending measure with a deadline for withdrawing US troops from Iraq, setting up a showdown with President Bush.
- Hedge funds opened last year at the slowest pace since 2000 as returns trailed those of the S&P 500, according to Hedge Fund Research.
- AT&T(T), Verizon Communications(VZ) and Qwest Communications(Q) won the right to bid on orders under a government telecom contract worth at least $20 billion, the biggest-ever federal award.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) started a service that lets customers buy full albums from its iTunes music store at a discount when they’ve already bought a single from the same album.
- US Steel(X) agreed to buy Lone Star Technologies(LSS) for $2.1 billion in cash to become North America’s largest supplier of pipes to crude-oil and natural gas producers.
- Gold is falling $5/oz., diverging from oil, after a government report signaled growth in the US economy, which eroded demand for the metal as an alternative asset.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, may have found 10 billion barrels of crude oil reserves in a new field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro.

NY Times:
- More than half of the legal immigrants living in the US are naturalized, the highest in two decades. The last time more than half of legal immigrants were naturalized was in 1980.
- NYC is averaging one homicide a day so far this year, which is the lowest point since at least 1962, when the Police Dept. started tracking crime using current record-keeping techniques.

Market News International:
- Outgoing European Central Bank council member Mitja Gaspari said he would be surprised if the benchmark interest rate climbed to 4.25% this year. The current rate of 3.75% “is okay for now,” he said.

Washington Post:
- The Shiite militia of Moqtada al-Sadr is fragmenting. At the same time, the anti-US cleric, who may now be in Iran, is facing new challenges to his leadership in Iraq.

Het Financieele Dagblad:
- Fortis is looking to make more acquisitions in the US, citing the company’s head in the region.