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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks rose for the fourth straight week, sending the DJIA above 13,000 for the first time, after profit reports that topped analysts’ estimates and a surge in takeovers reinforced speculation that shares are cheap.
- Shares of Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation's biggest maker of the lightweight metal, rose as much as 300% as the company started trading on the Shanghai stock exchange today.
- President Bush said he is gaining new support for immigration overhaul as his administration works with lawmakers in both political parties to try to tackle the issue this year.
- China orders banks to set aside more money as reserves for the seventh time in 11 months to try to prevent an accelerating economy from overheating. Premier Wen Jiabao is trying to stop a flood of cash from an export boom from fueling wasteful investment, inflation and a stock market bubble.
- The Fed’s Yellen said the odds are good for exceptionally strong world growth and that US growth should rebound later this year. Current below trend growth may mitigate inflation risk and low rates haven’t cut demand for US assets, she said.
- It’s a question few in Tokyo want to ask: What happens if deflation returns to Japan?
- Speculators are increasing their purchases of Russian stocks just as six years of gains grind to a halt in the world’s second-largest emerging market.
- The cost of shipping coal and iron-ore is about to decline as the supply of cargo vessels overwhelms demand.

NY Times:
- Citigroup Inc.(C) plans to spend $30 million in two months on a global advertising campaign, the first since it was created almost a decade ago.
- Michael S. Dell, the chairman and chief executive of Dell, who built his business by selling direct to his customers, is now thinking about changing the way the company markets its computers.
- The US military has found a cooperative ally in Sunni Muslim tribal leaders in Iraq’s Anbar province in fighting against the al-Qaeda terrorist network.

Boston Globe:
- Boston will plant 100,000 trees during the next 13 years and the US Forest Service will study the results on the city’s residents and environment.

Washington Post:
- The Interior Dept. will announce plans on April 30 to permit oil and gas drilling off the Virginia coast, an area currently off-limits. New exploration in Alaska’s Bristol Bay and the Gulf of Mexico would also be allowed. A news release the department distributed yesterday said officials had finished a five-year plan, including a major proposal for expanded oil and natural gas development on the US Outer Continental Shelf.

Financial Times:
- News Corp.’s MySpace Web site says 70% of its advertising income now comes from branded advertising, compared with around 30% a year ago.
- Senior Citigroup(C) executives fear the world’s biggest financial services company could become the target of activist hedge funds that would press for it to be broken up.
- DE Shaw, a NY-based hedge-fund firm, may start a private equity fund into which it may place some of its existing holdings.
- Iberdrola SA considers the US as the next market for growth as Spain’s second-largest power company is dissatisfied with the slow pace of energy integration in Europe. The US is “demonstrating a strong commitment to renewable energy,” Galan said. “In fact, in some states, the legislation sets out goals that go beyond the emission cuts laid out by” the 1997 Kyoto Protocol’s clean development mechanism.
- Short-sellers are facing growing structural barriers in their quest to profit from share-price declines, a reversal of fortune that helps explain the heavy losses suffered recently by hedge funds that bet against Amazon.com(AMZN), the internet retailer.

Nikkei:
- Osaka Gas Co. and Yamaha Motor Corp. are jointing developing methane gas vehicles that may be on sale within 3 years.

Commercial Times:
- Liquid-crystal display makers will accelerate price increases of some panels next month because of demand from personal computer makers. Prices of liquid-crystal displays used in computers began rising this month and may climb until the third quarter as Microsoft’s new Windows operating system spurs demand for wider screens, research firm iSuppli Corp. said.

Al-Hayat:
- Total SA plans to invest $2 billion in Yemen through 2009 to develop exploration projects and increase oil production.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (CELL) and US Dollar.
- Made negative comments on (ACP) and (AMZN).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.19%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.21%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (APC)/.76
- (ATHR)/.21
- (BEAV)/.32
- (CTX)/.63
- (CNA)/1.02
- (CVD)/.60
- (GNW)/.77
- (HLT)/.18
- (HUM)/.40
- (K)/.69
- (LTR)/.97
- (PBI)/.67
- (PPS)/.02
- (RSH)/.13
- (TSN)/.10
- (VZ)/.53
- (VMC)/.80

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for March is estimated to rise .6% versus a .6% gain in February.
- Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise .5% versus a .6% gain in February.
- PCE Core for March is estimated to rise .1% versus a .3% gain in February.

9:45 am EST
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for April is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 61.7 in March.

10:00 am EST
- Construction Spending for March is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% gain in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are slightly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,494.07 +.66%
DJIA 13,120.94 +1.23%
NASDAQ 2,557.21 +1.22%
Russell 2000 829.70 +.10%
Wilshire 5000 15,051.89 +.61%
Russell 1000 Growth 590.63 +1.02%
Russell 1000 Value 857.66 +.17%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 737.42 +.46%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,013.53 +1.51%
Morgan Stanley Technology 600.54 +3.0%
Transports 5,122.39 -1.60%
Utilities 524.38 +.73%
MSCI Emerging Markets 122.75 +.09%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 75,694 unch.
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +355 -48.10%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.0 +61.5%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 199,503 -3.4%
Total Put/Call 1.0 +33.3%
NYSE Arms 1.23 +41.4%
Volatility(VIX) 12.45 +3.1%
ISE Sentiment 136.0 +8.8%
AAII % Bulls 39.2 -16.4%
AAII % Bears 38.0 +28.3%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.46 +3.6%
Reformulated Gasoline 236.13 +10.5%
Natural Gas 7.83 +4.5%
Heating Oil 191.35 +4.5%
Gold 681.80 -2.03%
Base Metals 268.43 -2.0%
Copper 353.25 -2.5%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.69% +2 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 332,000 +.8%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.16% -1 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 653.30 +3.6%
Weekly Retail Sales unch.
Nationwide Gas $2.90/gallon +.04/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 34.0% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 141.60 +.9%
US Dollar Index 81.53 -.1%
CRB Index 314.20 +.7%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +5.4%
Networking +4.8%
Internet +1.7%
Biotech +1.6%
I-Banks +1.4%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.8%
Steel -1.9%
HMOs -2.2%
Gold -2.5%
Airlines -6.7%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

DJIA Finishes at Another All-Time High, Led by Cyclicals

Evening Review
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In Play

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
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Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
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NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
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Option Dragon
Intraday Chart/Quote

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Robert “Bo” Collins, founder of the $400 million MotherRock LP hedge fund that collapsed last year, plans to start a new energy trading company next month. The firm will be called 1.618 Group LLC.
- Ritchie Capital Management Ltd. agreed to sell a “significant portion” of the assets in its flagship hedge fund to NY-based Reservoir Capital Group, a step toward returning cash to investors.
- Late payments on subprime mortgages that underlie derivative indexes rose at a slower pace in March, according to Barclays Capital Inc. and Bear Stearns(BSC). A second month of slower increases in late payments of more than 60 days, foreclosures and seized property suggests stabilizing performance for mortgage bonds issued in the past 18 months, according to Barclays.
- Japan’s consumer prices fell more than economists predicted and industrial production unexpectedly dropped, reducing the likelihood the central bank will raise interest rates.
- The yen dropped to a record low versus the euro after Japanese consumer prices fell more than expected and industrial production declined.

Financial Times:
- French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy has the support of the leaderships of Germany, the UK and Belgium.
- Gao Xiqing, vice chairman of the National Council for Social Security Fund, said China’s stock prices are “defying gravity.” The fund is selling stocks to cut its risk to the climbing market, Gao said.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Business Week:
- Cooper Cos.(COO), an optical, surgical and medical-diagnostic products maker trying to turn itself around and seeking a CEO, is a potential takeover target.
- Shares of Metabolix(MBLX), a maker of biodegradable plastic and chemicals, may rise 61% in the next 12 months. Cantor Fitzgerald LP analyst Pamela Bassett said Metabolix’s bioplastics is the only one that can biodegrade in the earth, sea or sewer without incineration or industrial composting. She said the stock will rise to $40 in the next year.
- Shares of Progressive Corp.(PGR), the low-cost auto insurer, are undervalued and will gain on strong earnings, citing Michael Camp, a principal at Northwest Criterion.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (OSIP), target raised to $46.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.14%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.20%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BEBE)/.13
- (BKC)/.22
- (CVX)/1.68
- (CVH)/.80
- (CMI)/.94
- (GT)/-.12
- (IR)/.71
- (IRF)/.59
- (ITT)/.68
- (MSTR)/1.28
- (NOV)/1.33
- (GAS)/.98
- (PD)/3.61
- (PCU)/1.88

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Advance 1Q GDP is estimated to rise 1.8% versus a 2.5% gain in 4Q.
- Advance 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 3.5% versus a 4.2% gain in 4Q.
- Advance 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 3.0% versus a 1.7% gain in 4Q.
- 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise .9% versus a .9% gain in 4Q.

10:00 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated at 85.3 versus prior estimates of 85.3.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.