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Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Stocks Finish Lower on Profiting Taking After Recent Sharp Gains
Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking, Weakness in Tech, ECB Comments
Trade/Budget Deficits Shrink, Import Prices Rise on Oil, Job Market Healthy
- The Trade Deficit for August shrank to -$57.6 Billion versus estimates of -$59.0 Billion and -$59.0 Billion in July.
- The Import Price Index for September rose 1.0% versus estimates of 1.0% and a .3% decline in August.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 308K versus estimates of 315K and 320K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2521K versus estimates of 2550K and 2536K prior.
- The September budget surplus rose to $111.6 billion versus estimates of $100.7 billion and $56.2 billion in August.
BOTTOM LINE: The
Prices of goods imported into the
The number of US workers filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell more than forecast last week, showing the labor market remained resilient heading into the fourth quarter, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving-average of jobless claims fell to 310,250 from 313,250 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible to collect benefits, which tracks the
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Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Legg Mason(LM) fund manager Bill Miller acquired a 13% stake in convertible preferred stock issued by Thornburg Mortgage to finance its issuance of jumbo mortgages.
- TXU Corp.(TXU) completed its $32 billion sale to a group led by KKR and TPG Inc. in a record buyout, setting up a possible breakup of Texas’s largest electricity supplier.
- The House Judiciary Committee approved a four-year extension on a ban on taxing Internet services, rejecting efforts by cable and telephone companies to make the prohibition permanent.
- Billionaire Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A) cut its stake in PetroChina to 3.1% of the publicly held shares as of Sept. 30, from 5.44% five days earlier.
- Australia’s unemployment rate fell to a 33-year low as companies hired extra workers for a 11th consecutive month in September, adding to signs the economy’s 16-year expansion may be gathering pace.
- Chrysler LLC agreed to spend $11 billion to finance a union-run health fund and will pay beginning employees lower wages under a new contract with the United Auto Workers.
Wall Street Journal:
- Nine Wall Street firms have agreed to pay $280 million for a minority stake in bond-trading firm TradeWeb LLC, a move that could help unify disjointed markets.
MarketWatch.com:
- VMware, Microsoft headed for virtualization war.
- ‘Cubes’ ETF may get a littler sibling.
IBD:
- Medical Equipment And Systems Firms Enjoy Healthy Runs.
CNBC.com:
- Google’s(GOOG) share price should hit $750, Cramer said Wednesday on Mad Money, maybe even higher.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (MON), target $95.
- Reiterated Buy on (KO), raised target to $67.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
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Company/EPS Estimate
- (MTB)/1.94
- (PEP)/.96
- (SWY)/.44
- (SLM)/.73
- (FAST)/.42
- (IDT)/-.37
- (PLL)/.56
- (WINN)/-.14
- (WGO)/.40
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Trade Deficit for August is estimated to shrink to -$59.0 Billion versus -$59.2 Billion in July.
- The Import Price Index for September is estimated to rise 1.0% versus a -.3% decline in August.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 315K versus 317K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2550K versus 2541K prior.
12:00 pm EST
- The 2007 US Budget Deficit is estimated to shrink to -$162.5 Billion versus -$247.7 Billion in 2006.
- The Monthly Budget surplus for September is estimated to rise to $100.0 billion versus $56.2 billion in August.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Kroszner speaking, ICSC Chain Store Sales report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (HRL) analyst meeting, (IHS) investor day, (MSCS) analyst meeting and Biotechnology Industry Organization Investor Forum could also impact trading today.
Stocks Finish Mixed on Healthy Consolidation of Recent Gains
Indices
S&P 500 1,562.47 -.17%
DJIA 14,078.69 -.61%
NASDAQ 2,811.61 +.27%
Russell 2000 845.19 -.06%
Wilshire 5000 15,730.40 -.10%
Russell 1000 Growth 636.09 +.16%
Russell 1000 Value 869.0 -.43%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 753.21 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,085.75 -.30%
Morgan Stanley Technology 689.40 +.34%
Transports 4,933.53 -1.07%
Utilities 516.09 -.92%
MSCI Emerging Markets 157.44 +.63%
Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .88 +.88%
NYSE Arms 1.15 +58.35%
Volatility(VIX) 16.67 +3.47%
ISE Sentiment 123.0 -29.71%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil $81.27 +1.27%
Reformulated Gasoline 203.0 +.49%
Natural Gas 7.01 +2.14%
Heating Oil 221.77 +1.48%
Gold 746.50 +.46%
Base Metals 252.82 +1.89%
Copper 370.10 +2.31%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.65% unch.
US Dollar 78.32 -.27%
CRB Index 329.33 +1.06%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.89%
Biotech +1.10%
Retail +1.05%
Lagging Sectors
Insurance -1.0%
Banks -1.12%
Oil Tankers -2.01%
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Afternoon Recommendations
Piper Jaffray:
- Rated (QGEN) Outperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- New Jersey’s loss of residents to other US states more than tripled between 2002 and 2006, draining $10 billion in personal income from the economy and reducing tax revenue by $680 million, according to a Rutgers University report.
- Medtronic’s(MDT) experimental stent, Endeavor, appears to safely and effectively prop open clogged heart arteries, advisers to US regulators said today while deliberating whether to recommend approval of the device. The stock is rising 3.2% in after-hours trading.
- Morgan Stanley(MS) said its quantitative strategy traders lost $390 million during a single day in August as their computer models failed to account for “widespread” investor selling.
- The United Auto Workers union said it reached a tentative agreement with Chrysler LLC, ending a strike that began at 11 am NY time this morning.
- Lexmark Intl.(LXK) surged 6.7%, the most since January 2006, on speculation the second-biggest
- Zumiez(ZUMZ) said September sales rose 13.9%. The stock is rising 5% in extended trading.
-
- Crude oil rose for a second day on speculation that Turkish forces may attack rebel camps in northern
Financial Times:
- Paulson in drive to ease subprime ‘pain.’