Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,458.74 +.34%
DJIA 13,176.79 +1.03%
NASDAQ 2,637.24 +.35%
Russell 2000 769.50 -.39%
Wilshire 5000 14,667.84 +.15%
Russell 1000 Growth 604.74 +.56%
Russell 1000 Value 794.84 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 743.38 +1.89%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 975.45 -1.98%
Morgan Stanley Technology 619.47 +.45%
Transports 4,563.84 -.87%
Utilities 520.25 -.80%
MSCI Emerging Markets 153.28 -1.38%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 61,912 -5.25%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -626 -16.57%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 36.7 -36.7%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 225,232 -10.6%
Total Put/Call 1.28 +3.2%
NYSE Arms .70 -3.5%
Volatility(VIX) 25.5 -11.3%
ISE Sentiment 68.0 -43.70%
AAII % Bulls 33.01 -8.8%
AAII % Bears 49.5 -3.7%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 95.10 -1.3%
Reformulated Gasoline 237.80 -3.2%
Natural Gas 8.02 +1.4%
Heating Oil 259.25 -1.11%
Gold 787.70 -5.7%
Base Metals 230.93 -3.0%
Copper 319.0 +.79%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.16% -5 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 330,000 unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.24% unch.
Weekly Mortgage Applications 707.30 +5.5%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.4%
Nationwide Gas $3.11/gallon +.01/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 9% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 140.0 -.2%
US Dollar Index 75.81 +.57%
CRB Index 349.43 -1.44%

Best Performing Style
Large-cap Growth +.55%

Worst Performing Style
Mid-cap Value -.96%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.7%
Computer Services +2.7%
Retail +1.8%
Software +1.5%
Drugs +1.5%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -4.0%
Oil Tankers -5.2%
Gold -6.8%
Coal -7.3%
Construction -8.1%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour With Anxiety High

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even into the final hour as losses in my Commodity shorts offset gains in my Medical and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Retail options traders, however, are finally displaying the kind of pessimism I would expect to see near a meaningful market bottom. Cisco's (CSCO) additional $10 billion buyback is one large positive today. NPD also said video game sales were 73% higher in October from last year. As well, the speculative and investment grade credit default swaps have stabilized this week. The AAII percentage of bulls dropped to 33.01% this week from 36.2% the prior week. This reading is approaching depressed levels. The AAII percentage of bears fell to 49.5% this week from 51.4% the prior week. This reading is still at elevated levels. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently at 37.3%, a high level. The 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears peaked at 43.0% at the major bear market low during 2002. The 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 37.4%, an elevated level seen during only two other periods since tracking began in the 1980s. Those periods were October 1990 to July 1991 and March 2003 to May 2003, both of which were near major stock market bottoms. The extreme readings in the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears during those periods peaked at 41.6% on Jan. 31, 1991, and 38.1% on April 10, 2003. We are currently still close to eclipsing the peak in long-term bearish sentiment during the 2000 to 2003 market meltdown. I find this astonishing, notwithstanding the recent pullback, given that the S&P 500 is 100% higher from the October 2002 major bear market lows and just 6.6% off a record high. It is also noteworthy that as pessimism grows ever thicker, corporate insiders are displaying downright giddy behavior with their recent stock activity. Prior to the 2000 economic downturn, insiders were bailing in droves. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain hunting and short-covering.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Intraday Chart/Quote
Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A rare red diamond, the largest of its type ever to appear at auction, sold for a record at a Christie’s International sale in Geneva yesterday.
- President Bush announced steps to reduce airline delays before next week’s Thanksgiving holiday travel rush, including opening up military airspace and suspending nonessential maintenance work.
- India’s record stock market rally may falter if the government slaps controls on overseas buying in an attempt to stem gains in the rupee, CLSA Ltd. said.
- The yen fell against all 16 of the most-actively traded currencies as Japanese investors put money into mutual trusts specializing in overseas securities.
- China’s growth in factory and property spending accelerated, making the central bank more likely to raise interest rates for a sixth time this year.

Wall Street Journal:
- Democratic presidential candidates debated in what amounted to Round Two of their feisty encounters two weeks ago.

NY Times:
- Few American industries have had more success in selling goods to China than makers of medical devices like X-rays, pacemakers and patient monitors. Which is why a recent Chinese decree was so troubling.

MarketWatch.com:
- Best long-term market timers believe we’re in a bull market.

CNNMoney.com:
- Tahoe Hybrid SUV named ‘Green Car of Year’

CNBC.com:
- Fed Pumps Over $47 Billion Into Financial System.

USA Today.com:
- Number of cars with top safety scores nearly triples.

AP:
- Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig said the sport’s revenue was $6.07 billion this year, up from $1.2 billion when he took the job in 1992.
- Outfielder Barry Bonds was indicted by a federal grand jury on perjury and obstruction of justice charges.

Financial Times:
- Mubadala Development Co., an investment company owned by the Abu Dhabi government, may buy a 9% stake in Sunnyvale, California-based Advanced Micro Devices(AMD).
- China’s commerce ministry warned on Thursday that a slowing US economy would trigger a drop in Chinese exports that would mark a “turning point” for China’s rapid economic growth.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (INTU), target $35.
- Upgraded (EXPE) to Buy, target $38.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.75% to -1.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.20%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANN)/.60
- (JBX)/.38

Upcoming Splits
- (D) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
- Net Long-term TIC Flows for September are estimated to rise to $71.5 billion versus -$69.3 billion in August.

9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for October is estimated to rise .1% versus a .1% gain in September.
- Capacity Utilization for October is estimated to fall to 82.0% versus 82.1% in September.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Kroszner speaking, Fed’s Lockhart speaking, (MHS) analyst day, (GIB) investor day, CSFB High Yield Media & Telecom Investor Conference, RBC Capital Markets MLP Conference CSFB Insurance & Asset Management Conference and Bank of America Energy Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by financial and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows on Lingering Economic Worries

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Lingering Economic Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Retail longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is very negative today as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are falling and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. For the first time in many months, the U.S. dollar is trading as though at least a tradable bottom may be in place and oil/gold are trading toppy. It is also interesting to note that the Bombay Bullion Association said yesterday that gold imports into India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, plunged 50% in October from a year earlier. The October-December period is historically the busiest season in India for jewelry sales. Gold is around session lows falling $27 per ounce, to $788 per ounce. It is down $60 per ounce in a week. For several years, gold bugs have made the argument that its rise was indicative of mounting worries over inflation. The CPI rose to a modestly above-average 3.5% year over year in October vs. a 2.8% rise the prior month. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.3% higher today but is still not far off its recent lows. I have said for some time and continue to believe that the rise in gold has been mainly a function of the historic speculation for the commodity by investment funds related to perceptions over emerging market demand. I continue to believe the secular trend of disinflation remains firmly in tact and that it will reassert itself during the next meaningful global slowdown. While I may take some profits in my iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) long over the coming weeks, the position remains a core long, and I will add back to it on any significant uptick in interest rates from current levels. Reuters is reporting that Cisco Systems (CSCO) CEO Chambers is saying that he is comfortable with prior estimates. He also said, while there are risks, he see a soft landing for the U.S. economy and a very strong global economy. I continue to see no evidence of the impending recession that investors are pricing into many stocks at current levels. The forward P/E on the S&P 500 is now 15.8, down from 16.1 at the beginning of the year. If the multiple on the S&P 500 were to contract again this year, it would mark the fourth consecutive year of contraction, a feat which has only been done two other times since 1905. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-lower into the close from current levels on lingering economic worries.