Pending Home Sales Rise Again

- Pending Home Sales for October rose .6% versus estimates of a 1.0% decline and an upwardly revised 1.4% gain in September.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes unexpectedly rose for a second month in October, suggesting the slump in housing may become less severe, Bloomberg said. The National Association of Realtors forecast 5.697 million homes will be sold in 2008, an upward revision from last month’s estimate. Moreover, the median price of an existing home is forecast to rise .3% in 2008. Pending home sales rose 16% in the Northeast and 8.4% in the West. Purchases fell 7.8% in the South and 1.4% in the Midwest. The fact that pending home sales rose again despite recent credit turmoil is a big positive. I continue to believe home sales are stabilizing at lower, but high by historic standards, levels.

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks posted their steepest two-week advance since September after President Bush announced a plan to freeze some mortgage rates to prevent foreclosures from causing a recession.
- Treasuries posted their first weekly decline since October as the government introduced a plan to freeze some subprime mortgages, reducing the safe-haven appeal of US debt.
- The US dollar rose to a one-month high against the yen after a US government report showed Friday that November job growth exceeded forecasts.
- Central bankers from the six Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, have no plans to meet to discuss revaluing their dollar-pegged currencies, Bahrain Central Bank Governor Rasheed al-Maraj said.
- Global economic growth will prevent a slowing US economy from spinning into a recession, said Jacob Frenkel, vice chairman of the insurance and financial-services firm American International Group(AIG).
- President Bush would veto a Democratic proposal to tie war funding to billions of dollars of additional domestic spending, White House budget director Jim Nussle said.
- Oprah Winfrey called Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama a politician with an “ear for eloquence and a tone dipped in unvarnished truth,” saying his life experience makes him best suited to lead the nation.
- Britain’s secretary of business reportedly is backing a plan to have wind farms power all homes in the UK within 13 years.
- The average price of regular gasoline at the pump in the US fell 9 cents in the past three weeks to $3/gallon, according to oil industry analyst Trilby Lundberg’s survey of 7,000 filling stations nationwide.
- China Petrochemical Corp. signed a $2 billion agreement to develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, China's state-run media said, underscoring closer ties with the Middle Eastern nation as the U.S. and Europe curb investment.
- China, India Say Mandatory Emissions Cuts Are ‘Inconceivable.’
- Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has a 22-point lead in the Republican presidential contest in Iowa among likely caucus voters, while Senator Barack Obama is ahead of NY Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton by 6 points, a Newsweek poll shows.
- CompUSA(CPU), the consumer electronics retailer owned by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, said it was acquired by restructuring firm Gordon Brothers Group LLC, which plans to close or sell its 103 stores.
- Hollywood studios and striking writers halted labor negotiations after failing to reach an agreement on pay for using writers’ work on the Internet.
- University of Florida quarterback Tim Tebow became the first sophomore to be voted the Heisman Trophy winner as college football’s top player after a season in which he passed for 29 touchdowns and ran for 22.
- Celgene’s(CELG) Revlimid, a treatment for a deadly cancer of the bone marrow, was safer and helped patients live longer when used in combination with a lower-than-usual dose of an immune-suppressing drug.
- Biogen Idec’s(BIIB) Zevalin, a drug that unloads radiation onto cancer cells, helped 76% of patients with non-Hodgkins lymphoma achieve complete remission after a single shot, a study found.
- Tension in Hillaryland Grows as Plan Goes Awry: Albert R. Huut.
- Pharmion Corp.’s(PHRM) Vidaza helped patients live longer with rare bone marrow disorder that can lead to leukemia, researchers said.
- UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, visiting British troops in Basra, said the government of Iraq will take over security in the southern province within two weeks, allowing British forces to almost halve their numbers within the next few months.
- Derivatives traded on exchanges surged 27% to a record $681 trillion in the third quarter, the biggest increase in three years, the Bank for International Settlements said.
- Japan’s October machinery orders rose at twice the pace economists predicted as companies build factories and buy equipment to meet rising demand. Orders climbed 12.7% from September, when they fell 7.6%, the Cabinet Office said.
- Stock Market Rallies When US Economy Slows to Less Than 1%. Just because most economists on Wall Street predict the US economy will slow next year, or sink into recession, doesn’t mean their market strategist colleagues won’t be right in their forecast of a record for the S&P 500. The benchmark for American equities climbed in eight of the 10 years the economy grew less than 1% since Harry Truman was in the White House 60 years ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
- Now that analysts on Wall Street are forecasting the worst to come for the securities industry, the biggest money managers are closing their eyes and buying. T. Rowe Price Group and Legg Mason spent about $1 billion combined since June to raise their stakes in Goldman Sachs(GS), Morgan Stanley(MS), Lehman Brothers(LEH) and Bear Stearns(BSC) as earnings fell from the record first half of 2007. Billionaire investor Josehp Lewis paid more than $1 billion to buy Bear Stearns(BSC) shares, while Dallas-based money manager James Barrow tripled his holding in the fifth-biggest US securities firm.

Wall Street Journal:
- A top federal bank regulator said some investors who are criticizing the new rescue plan for troubled homeowners also may be placing bets in which they would benefit from a jump in foreclosures.

NY Times:
- REITs Are Down, but for How Long?
- What Did the Professor Say? Check Your iPod.

CNBC.com:
- 6 Ways to Kill Your Credit Rating.

MarketWatch.com:
- The Federal Reserve will cut rates by a quarter-percentage point when they meet in four days despite no clear signal of weakness from the November jobs report, analysts said Friday.
- China promises less-wasteful growth in 2008. Over the weekend, China again hiked the reserve ratio for commercial banks by 100 basis points to 14.5% beginning Dec. 26 as a high-level planning meeting promised both lower growth and inflation next year.
- Chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital wins MarketWatch award for fourth time, sees Fed cutting interest rates Tuesday, then holding firm in January.
- These stocks’ blood is running in the streets. True contrarians like George Putnam relish buying opportunity.
- Sound Shore finding relative bargains in tech, health care and media.
- Has China’s IPO boom run its course? Risk worries emerge; share offerings in Hong Kong delayed.

IBD:
- Apple Macintosh Computers Likely To Gain Market Share.

Forbes.com:
- Holiday Gift List.

Business Week:
- More Clicks at the Bricks. How retail stores are scrambling to catch up with shoppers empowered by the Web.
- S&P unearthed nine issues under $10 that are good bests for bargain hunters. They’re undervalued and they have momentum.

CNNMoney.com:
- 28 Best Money Web Sites.

AP:
- Duke University will offer free education to undergraduate students whose families earn less than $40,000 and it will stop requiring parental contributions from those that make less than $60,000 a year. More than 30 schools have attempted to limit graduates’ debt burdens, citing the Institute for College Access and Success.

Reuters:
- Steady US hiring points to economic resilience that will let the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a restrained quarter-percentage point on Tuesday rather than a more aggressive half point.

Dow Jones:
- Citigroup’s(C) board will meet next week to choose a new CEO, with Vikram Pandit among frontrunners for the job.

Financial Times:
- James Murdoch may succeed Pete Chernin as Chief Operating Officer of News Corp.(NWS/A) when Cherin’s contract expires in 2009.
- China is to treble the amount of money that foreigners can invest in the mainland capital market, making the long-awaited announcement on the eve of this week’s high-level economic summit between Chinese and US policymakers.

Daily Telegraph:
- Blackstone Group LP is planning a bid for Rio Tinto Group(RTP) that may include China’s sovereign wealth fund.

Il Sole-24 Ore:
- Otmar Issing, the European Central Bank’s former chief economist, said China must allow its currency to gain in value soon to head off serious economic consequences. The negative effect of waiting to allow the yuan to appreciate will be evident “in terms of inflation and the distortion of resources,” Issing said.

The Australian:
- Banking majors including Goldman Sachs(GS), UBS and JP Morgan are sniffing around BHP Billiton(BHP), speculating that a merger with Rio Tinto(RTP) might lead BHP to float or sell off its petroleum assets into a separate $80 billion company.

Star:
- Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME) may buy a 10% stake in Bursa Malaysia Bhd.

Gulf News:
- Gulf Cooperation Council states are unlikely to meet their self-imposed 2010 deadline to create a regional monetary union and single currency, citing Qatar’s prime minister. Oman said last year it may not be able to meet the deadline, and fellow GCC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are also unlikely to be ready in time, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani said.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (ALL) and (JPM).
- Made negative comments on (KCI).

Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (T), target $47.
- Upgraded (RATE) to Buy, target $55.
- Raised Samsung Electronics to Buy from Hold.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (MTN)/-.79
- (FCEL)/-.27
- (HRB)/-.35
- (PLL)/.32
- (QSFT)/.19
- (VRNT)/.18
- (IDT)/-.40
- (JW/A)/.42

Upcoming Splits
- (XTO) 5-for-4
- (DNR) 2-for-1

Economic Data
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for October are estimated to fall 1.0% versus a .2% increase in September.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The BB&T Consumer Conference, (NVO) analyst meeting, (ITW) investor meeting, (PPG) investor day, (WTSLA) analyst meeting, (HIG) investor call and (AVT) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for the Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch.com.

There are a few economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. – Pending Home Sales

Tues. – Weekly retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Wholesale Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision

Wed. – Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly EIA energy inventory report, Trade Deficit, Import Price Index, Monthly Budget Deficit

Thur. – Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Business Inventories

Fri. – Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. – Vail Resorts(MTN), H&R Block(HRB), FuelCell Energy(FCEL), Pall Corp.(PLL), John Wiley & Sons(JW/A), Quest Software(QSFT)

Tues. – Sharper Image(SHRP), Multimedia Games(MGAM), Cooper Cos(COO), Krogere(KR)

Wed. – Martek Biosciences(MATK), ADC Telecom(ADCT), CKE Restaurants(CKE)

Thur. – CostcoWholesale(COST), Quiksilver(ZQK), JOS A Bank(JOSB), Lehman Brothers(LEH)

Fri. – Tektronix(TEK), CSK Auto(CAO), Winnebago(WGO), Ciena Corp.(CIEN)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. – BB&T Consumer Conference, (NVO) analyst meeting, (ITW) investor meeting, (PPG) investor day, (WTSLA) analyst meeting, (HIG) investor call, (AVT) analyst meeting

Tue. – CIBC Virtualization Conference, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, Wedbush Morgan California Dreamin’ Conference, (ARM) analyst meeting, (HPQ) analyst meeting, (T) investor day, (VVC) analyst breakfast, (INWK) analyst meeting, (VTIV) analyst meeting, (GNW) strategic update, (MRK) business briefing, (GMR) analyst meeting, (WLP) investor conference, (A) analyst meeting, (VRGY) analyst meeting, (ALTR) analyst meeting, (GE) outlook meeting

Wed. – CIBC Virtualization Conference, Wedbush Morgan California Dreamin’ Conference, (BDC) investor day, (SUN) analyst meeting, (YUM) investors conference, (LII) analyst meeting, (MALL) analyst meeting, (DHR) analyst meeting, (VVC) analyst luncheon

Thur. – Thomas Weisel Telecom Tomorrow Conference, Merrill Lynch Growth Industrial Conference, RBC Healthcare Conference, (PBG) investor day, (AMD) analyst day, (SMG) analyst day, (ZGEN) analyst meeting, (JAV) analyst meeting, (UTX) analyst meeting

Fri. – Roth Capital Software Event, (ACAD) analyst meeting, (IDT) analyst meeting

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as a firmer dollar, lower energy prices, seasonal strength, less economic pessimism and short-covering offsets profit-taking and higher inflation readings. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,504.66 +1.59%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,504.66 +1.59%
DJIA 13,625.58 +1.90%
NASDAQ 2,706.16 +1.70%
Russell 2000 785.52 +2.31%
Wilshire 5000 15,130.98 +1.76%
Russell 1000 Growth 625.82 +1.79%
Russell 1000 Value 818.68 +1.60%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 759.96 +.75%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,020.34 +2.82%
Morgan Stanley Technology 632.85 +2.66%
Transports 4,876.35 +4.61%
Utilities 550.66 +3.46%
MSCI Emerging Markets 159.61 +3.87%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 64,580 +3.08%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -199 +32.1%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 19.57 -41.3%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 215,237 -6.8%
Total Put/Call .96 -10.3%
NYSE Arms .92 +10.84%
Volatility(VIX) 20.85 -8.83%
ISE Sentiment 111.0 +15.63%
AAII % Bulls 40.65 +42.3%
AAII % Bears 39.84 -29.0%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 88.28 -.48%
Reformulated Gasoline 226.90 -1.72%
Natural Gas 7.15 -2.01%
Heating Oil 250.47 -.41%
Gold 800.20 +1.41%
Base Metals 218.16 -3.01%
Copper 312.60 -1.84%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.11% +17 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 340,300 +1.4%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.96% -14 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 791.80 +22.51%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.4%
Nationwide Gas $3.03/gallon -.05/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 10% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 138.70 +1.31%
US Dollar Index 76.29 +.19%
CRB Index 342.92 +.91%

Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Growth +2.56%

Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Value +1.60%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +10.05%
Disk Drives +7.18%
Engineering & Construction +7.05%
Steel +6.27%
Alternative Energy +6.23%

Lagging Sectors
Tobacco +.66%
Drugs +.42%
Hospitals -.01%
Airlines -.39%
Banks -.71%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change