Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Less Economic Pessimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Alternative Energy longs, Computer longs, Software longs and Retail longs. I added to my (AKAM) long this morning and took some profits in a trading long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly bullish as the advance/decline line is mildly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is about average. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling 3.4%, but remains above average at 18.3. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 94.0 and the total put/call is below average at .80. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running slightly below average most of the day and is currently .83. Given recent stock gains, more negative financial sector news, a jump in oil to another record and technical selling, today’s action is even more impressive. The (XLF) has completely reversed morning losses and is trading near session highs, up .84%. This should be extremely worrisome to the many US stock bears. The Bear Stearns High Yield Composite Index continues to rally, rising another 1.03% over the last five days. This index is now only 1.13% from its all-time high hit on May 31, 2007. Moreover, many market-leading growth stocks are substantially outperforming the broad market again today. The TED spread is falling another 4 basis points to 113.0 basis points, which is the lowest since February 26^th and down from 204.0 on March 19^th, which is also a significant positive. Cisco Systems(CSCO) reports after the close today. There has been much talk in the financial media about the strong likelihood that the company will give disappointing guidance. There are currently 62.9 million shares of the stock sold short, which is right near record levels. As well, according to shaeffersresearch.com, the open interest put/call for CSCO is currently .99, which is the highest in at least 2 years. I am not currently long the stock, however I suspect that any initial negative investor reaction to their report may give way to buying by tomorrow afternoon. Nikkei futures indicate an +160 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +86 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and less economic pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Fannie Mae(FNM) reported a wider loss than analysts estimated, cut the dividend for the second time in six month and said it will raise $6 billion in capital. However, the stock is surging 6.4% on the news.
- The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four-month high after a reported jump in exports from Argentina increased speculation about a shortage of vessels in the Atlantic.
- Crude oil rose above $122 a barrel in NY on increased investment fund speculation after Goldman Sachs(GS) said the commodity could reach $200/bbl. despite a report today from the Energy Information Administration that said US oil demand is falling more than previously thought.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR) may pump oil a year earlier than expected from the Western Hemisphere’s biggest find since 1976, increasing supply at a time of record prices. The field isn’t as difficult to tap as predicted. Bringing the Tupi field online and other finds into production is key to Petrobras’s plan to boost output by 79% over the next 7 years, which would put Brazil on par with Iran, the second-largest producer in OPEC. Tupi is one of seven or eight prospects in that part of the Atlantic that Petrobras says may be “very, very, very large.”
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) CEO John Chambers may roil investors for a third quarter in a row when the largest maker of networking devices announces its earnings and outlook today.

Wall Street Journal:
- The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will market the bottom of the US housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now. (very good article)
- Senator John McCain condemned what he sees as “judicial activism” and corruption in federal courts and then vowed to appoint judges along the lines of Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Samuel Alito and the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist. He called the three “jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds, and know the law, and know the difference.”

The Boy Genius Report:
- Apple(AAPL) and AT&T(T) to launch iPhone 3G a lot sooner than we think?

hedgeweek:
- Penso Capital launches “Global Crisis Strategy” to target opportunities in volatile markets. 'The extreme market volatility, coupled with current and foreseeable economic and geopolitical risk - which exists without regard to strategy or asset class - has presented investment opportunities that we believe we are well positioned to exploit.'

CNNMoney.com:
- Networks Face Revenue Crunch as Ads Go Online. In the aftermath of the writer’s strike – and with ever-increasing competition from the Internet, cable channels and digital video recorders – primetime network television isn’t the all-powerful medium it used to be. That erosion of power will be in evidence over the next several weeks when the networks host their annual “upfronts” – gatherings where TV executives attempt to persuade advertisers to buy ad time by showing off previews of the upcoming fall season.

Renewable Energy World:
- Is Ethanol To Blame for All Our Global Woes? I want to make perfectly clear that cellulosic conversion is the "end game" for biofuels. And while biofuels have positive energy balances now, these balances will further increase using these new resources and these new cellulosic processes. Both private investment and government policy are clearly driving technology, project development and intermediate investment into cellulosic conversion with actual grants from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) along with federal loan guarantees towards cellulosic conversion. This allows the gains in biofuels from the days of large corn surpluses that rotted in farm silos, to the next era of waste-based and non-food-based sustainable biofuels.
- Investment in Renewable Energy Reaches $100 Billion. "The finance community has been investing at levels that imply disruptive change is now inevitable in the energy sector," says Eric Usher, Head of the Energy Finance Unit at the UN.

Business Wire:
- According to Deutsche Bank’s Sixth Annual Alternative Investment Survey, released today, 80% of hedge fund investors are bearish and cash levels are “unprecedented” as investors take a “wait and see” approach.

EIA:
- US consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is expected to decline in 2008 by about 190,000 bbl/d, versus a prior forecast of a 90,000 bbl/d decline, as a result of the economic slowdown and high petroleum prices. After accounting for increased ethanol use, US petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 bbl/d in 2008. OECD commercial inventories at the end of the first quarter stood at an estimated 2.54 billion barrels, 22 million barrels above the previous 5-year average level.

TimesOnline:
- Denmark’s Rasmussen Is Favorite for EU Presidency.
- Whatever happened to the Great Depression? I don’t know about you but I feel a bit cheated. There we all were, led to believe by so many commentators that the sub-prime crisis was going to force the US into a new era of dust bowls and breadlines. Well, it’s early days, but so far the Great Depression 2008 is shaping up to be a Great Disappointment. Last week the Commerce Department reported that the US economy actually grew in the first three months of the year.

Arab News:
- Saudi Oil Revenue to Top $260 Billion in 2008. In nominal terms, Saudi Arabia’s GDP is likely to grow by 22.1% this year. At $457 billion, the Saudi economy will be three times larger than it was in 1998. Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate increased to a 27-year peak of 9.6% in March.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value +.47%

Sector Underperformers:

Airlines (-3.34%), Biotech (-.72%) and Utilities (-.32%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

TXCO, PRGO, ATNI, AFSI, FEED, TSU, PSS and SMG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) AU 2) VMC 3) LM 4) THC 5) INTU

Economic Releases

- None of note

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Growth (+.32%)

Sector Outperformers:

Alternative Energy (+1.92%), Oil Service (+1.67%) and Software (+.85%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

IPHS, CRK, ARG, APC, HES, CLF, BAS, TESO, SU, DRL, MICC, CLWR, CMA, YHOO, TKLC, ASMI, IPGP, ERES, APWR, SYKE, AIMC, CWEI, PFBC, GMCR, ARGN, ECLP, HHGP, CHNR, ITWO, PTRY, ADVS, JRCC, TKG, DWA, KEI, TDG, MCK, CRK, FNM and TAP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) MLM 2) MCK 3) APC 4) RTN 5) AU

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