Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Financial, Rail, Construction and Homebuilding Shares

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In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Financial Sector Pessimism, Global Growth Worries and Profit-Taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs, Biotech longs, Medical longs and Emerging Market shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is rising 5.3% and is still above-average at 21.2. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 105.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.05. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day and is currently .95. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.44% today to 78.69 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising .48% today to 129.68 basis points. The TED spread is falling another -4.12% to .95. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling another 2 basis points to 2.14%, which is the lowest since October 8, 2003 and down 49 basis points in less than six weeks. Gold is falling another $7/oz. today, despite slight dollar weakness, and is down $213/oz. from its $1,033.90 high on March 17. The CRB RIND Index is falling convincingly below its 200-day moving-average for the first time since its bull move began in 2000. Many CNBC pundits are now calling for a bottom in oil. I think the commodity trades very poorly given recent potential positive catalysts. I’ll be very surprised if oil doesn’t test the psychologically important $100/bbl. level and somewhat surprised if it doesn’t finish the year below that level. Given the 5.4% decline in the (XLF), the Nasdaq is holding up very well. As well, airline, biotech, disk drive, computer hardware, software, paper, oil service, energy and defense stocks are all higher on the day. Growth stocks are again substantially outperforming value stocks. I still think the XLF has seen its low, but financials will not likely display sustained market leadership for quite some time. Nikkei futures indicate a -63 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +10 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on financial sector pessimism, global growth concerns and profit-taking.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Russia promised to pull back troops from Georgia under a European Union-mediated peace plan after President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt to a five-day offensive in the former Soviet neighbor.
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New York Times Co.(NYT) faces increased financial pressure to cut its dividend as credit quality deteriorates amid record advertising declines. Credit-default swaps used to speculate on New York Times' creditworthiness or to hedge against losses are trading as if the company already was rated junk, according to data from Moody's credit strategy group. The contracts, costing $397,000 a year to protect $10 million in debt for five years, trade as if the company had a Ba3 rating from Moody's, three levels below its actual Baa3 rating, the data show.
- Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield credit ratings decreased 5 basis points to 547, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices at 7:50 a.m. in London. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade index, a benchmark gauge of credit risk linked to the bonds of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada, fell 1 basis point to 130.5 basis points at the close in New York, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
- According to Morgan Stanley(MS), there are clear signs of a slowdown in India over the last few months. A number of indicators show that investments growth has decelerated over the last six months. Capital goods output growth has slowed to 6.8% during the three months ending June 2008, from the peak of 24.2% for the three months ending October 2007. Similarly, the trend for aggregate corporate fund raising has also suffered over the last six months. We believe the combined impact of slowing domestic consumption, higher domestic cost of capital and reduced capital access from international capital markets will result in further major slowdown in investment cycle over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley does not see a recovery until 2010.
- The UK pound slid to its lowest level in almost 21 months against the dollar after an industry report showed U.K. house prices fell in July, adding to evidence the economy is slowing.
- Dennis Garman, economist and editor of the Gartman Letter, calls the US dollar a ‘safe have’ and says to avoid gold. (video)
- The US dollar headed for a sixth day of gains against the euro, the longest rally since October 2006, on speculation tumbling commodity prices will give a boost to the world's largest economy. The greenback also rose against the Australian and New Zealand currencies as crude oil traded near a 14-week low, copper fell to the weakest in six months and gold dropped to the cheapest since December.
- Posco, Asia's biggest maker of stainless steel, and rival Jindal Stainless Ltd. cut prices of the rust-resistant metal after the cost of nickel declined. Posco cut prices by as much as 10 percent from Aug. 18, the first reduction this year, Ko Min Jin, a spokeswoman for the Pohang, South Korea-based company, said today. Jindal, India's largest producer, dropped prices by more than 5 percent. Nickel has slumped 32 percent this year as rising supplies outpace demand from steelmakers. World stainless-steel demand probably won't recover until early 2009 as soaring energy prices and a property slump in major economies curb consumption, MEPS (International) Ltd. said July 31.

- Corn declined as the U.S. crop's condition improved last week after rains fell in parts of the Midwest, improving production prospects. Soybeans and wheat also dropped.
- Crude oil fell $.81/bbl., despite tensions between Russia and Georgia, as the US dollar traded near a six-month high. China, the second-largest oil consumer, said yesterday crude oil imports fell 7% in July.
- Copper fell 20 percent below last month's all-time high in London trading, entering a bear market, on speculation a worsening global growth outlook will exacerbate falling demand. Zinc dropped to a two-year low. ``It's a bear market if you think the copper cycle is really over,'' said Michael Widmer, an analyst at Lehman Brothers Holdings Ltd. in London, who forecasts copper to drop to $7,000 in August. ``The wind is probably out of the base metals.''
- Sales of New Zealand houses fell 33 percent from a year earlier in July as record-high interest rates curtailed demand for property.

Wall Street Journal:
- Signs are emerging that Americans are cutting down on their appetite for oil, driving fewer miles, buying more fuel efficient vehicles and modifying their power consumption habits. US motorists drove 966 million fewer miles in May than they did a year earlier, a 3.7% decline, citing the US Transportation Dept. US consumers are buying fewer sport-utility vehicles and more energy-saving washing machines as they reduce consumption. Mass-transit usage rose 3.4% in the first quarter, citing the American Public Transportation Assoc. Procter & Gamble(PG) is filling smaller bottles with more-powerful laundry detergent.

- Wal-Mart’s(WMT) Three-Year Turnaround Plan May Be Working.

NY Times:
- Is Goldman Sachs(GS) Losing its Halo? Two analysts lowered their ratings Tuesday on Goldman Sachs. In Tuesday’s report, Mr. Mayo said new evidence of economic slowdowns in China and Europe may be bad news for Goldman, which gets much of its revenue from overseas.
- NYC may photo the license plates of vehicles entering Manhattan and scan them for radioactivity to strengthen security against a possible terrorist attack, citing a Police Dept. proposal.

NY Post:
- The SEC is working furiously to unveil a proposal next month that would permanently tighten existing rules for short selling.

Washington Post:
- European Unity Under Pressure as Economies Slow.
- Antiwar activist Cindy Sheehan has qualified to run as an independent against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in November’s general election. She says Pelosi has failed the country by refusing to cut off funding for the war after Democrats reclaimed the majority in the 2006 election.

TmoNews:
- Presale of Google’s(GOOG) Android phone will begin on September 17.

Reuters:
- Intel’s(INTC) CFO said he is comfortable with Q3 revenue forecast of $10 billion-$10.6 billion versus consensus of $10.3 billion. He said the Atom processor is off to a very strong start and that it is far exceeding estimates.

Market News International:
- The German economy may have contracted 1% in the second quarter, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said.

Il Messaggero:
- European Central Bank executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said the economy may show “extended weakness” in the next few quarters, citing an interview.

Le Phare:
- The Democratic Republic of Congo western basin contains about 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves and millions of cubic meters of natural gas, citing Perenco SA. Oil-industry experts are meeting in the capital to discuss ways of increasing the central African nation’s oil production.

Stuttgarter Zeitung:
- European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said the bank stressed after its last policy meeting that fighting inflation remains its “highest priority.” Weber said the inflation outlook is poor and the ECB must prevent the higher cost of living from becoming a yardstick in wage negotiations. Weber, who heads the German Bundesbank, said he doesn’t expect the euro-area inflation rate to fall below the bank’s 2% limit “this year or next.”

Caijing:
- China’s top food production quality director committed suicide by jumping off a building a day after he met with Beijing prosecutors on alleged financial corruption

Haaretz:
- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday rejected an Israeli peace proposal, which included withdrawal from 93 percent of the West Bank, because it does not provide for a contiguous Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. Nabil Abu Rdainah, Abbas's spokesman, told the official Palestinian news agency WAFA that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's plan showed a "lack of seriousness." Under the proposal, Israel would return to the Palestinians 93 percent of the West Bank, plus all of the Gaza Strip, when the Palestinian Authority regains control over the Gaza Strip, which the militant group Hamas seized from forces loyal to Abbas in June 2006.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value -1.68%

Sector Underperformers:

Road & Rail irlind (-4.90%), Construction (-4.79%) and I-Banks (-4.46%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

CHL, UNP, ARII, INWK, AFAM, ZOLT, ERES, RNOW, CMED, NUAN, EZPW, FSIN, FWLT, CEG, SXE, DPM, MDR, KV/A, FLR, KYN and PNM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) CEG 2) LDK 3) CSX 4) ARO 5) UNP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Growth (-.31%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+4.51%), Gaming (+1.26%) and Papers (+.93%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

MOS, AEM, UB, TWTC, CNSL, FOSL, TACT, JASO, OMRI, ASEI, GIGM, AMCN, UAUA, CSIQ, CEDC, SOLF, HANS, NATI, HMIN and OTEX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) LDK 2) TTWO 3) WU 4) ABB 5) SIL

Trade Deficit Narrows More Than Expected

- The Trade Deficit for June narrowed to -$56.8 billion versus estimates of -$62.0 billion and -$59.2 billion in May.

BOTTOM LINE: The US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in June as the biggest jump in exports in more than four years overcame record imports of petroleum, Bloomberg reported. Exports jumped 4%, the biggest percentage increase since February 2004, led by record overseas sales of industrial supplies, capital goods, food and consumer goods. US imports rose 1.8%, propelled by a record $44.5 billion in purchases of foreign petroleum. After eliminating the influence of price changes, the trade gap shrank to $39.1 billion, the lowest since December 2001. This should lead to an upward revision to 2Q GDP. The deficit with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expanded by $200 million to a record $18.1 billion. I expect the Trade Deficit to continue to improve over the intermediate-term on lower commodity prices and still strong exports.