Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Airline, Gaming, Retail and Financial Shares

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Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Financial Sector Pessimism, Credit Angst, Rising Commodities

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Alternative Energy longs, Gaming longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is falling and volume is light. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 3.4% and is still above-average at 21.69. The ISE Sentiment Index is below-average at 118.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.16. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day and is currently .96. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 10.0% today to 88.25 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 5.0% today to 141.34 basis points. The TED spread is falling 2.86% to 1.02. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.16%, which is the lowest since October 14, 2003 and down 47 basis points in about six weeks. The (XLF) is down 2.44% on the day, but bottomed around noon and has since trimmed losses, while the broad market recently made a new low. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some short-covering in the (XLF) into the close. The fact that volume remains very anemic during the recent pullback is a positive, in my opinion. (HPQ) reports after the close. While I am not long the stock, its report should be received positively by investors, which could help boost the Nasdaq tomorrow. Nikkei futures indicate a -115 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +15 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- NATO downgraded ties with Russia to protest the invasion of Georgia, struggling to go beyond verbal condemnation of Russia's first foreign military campaign since the collapse of the Soviet Union. ``There can be no business as usual with Russia under present circumstances,'' Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told reporters after allied foreign ministers met in Brussels today. He ruled out NATO-Russia meetings ``as long as Russian forces are basically occupying a large part of Georgia.''
- Medtronic Inc.(MDT), the world's second- largest device maker, said earnings beat analysts' estimates, driven by sales of a new heart stent and reductions in jobs and expenses.
- Venezuela's government extended its hold on the economy with accords to take majority stakes in the local units of cement companies Lafarge SA and Holcim Ltd., and by seizing Cemex SAB's factories.
- Macau casino owners Las Vegas Sands Corp.(LVS), Wynn Resorts Ltd.(WYNN), MGM Mirage(MGM), and Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. fell in New York trading after a report that China may increase travel curbs to the gambling center.
- Crude oil is rising $.98/bbl. on investment fund short-covering ahead of tomorrow’s EIA energy inventory data and a weaker US dollar.
- Russia's RTS Index fell to its lowest in almost two years and posted today's biggest drop among equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg as lower energy prices dragged down oil and gas producers. OAO Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil company, fell to its lowest in almost five months, and OAO Gazprom, the world's largest natural-gas producer, slid the most in seven months. The dollar-denominated RTS dropped 5.6 percent to 1,678.16 at 5:06 p.m. in Moscow, the lowest since November 2006. The RTS has plunged 32 percent from its May 19 high on concern that the outlook for earnings at commodity producers, which dominate the index, is weakening amid a global economic slowdown. The index also fell when Prime Minister Vladimir Putin attacked coal and steel producer OAO Mechel for its raw materials pricing and on Russia's invasion of Georgia on Aug. 8. ``Russia is overloaded with people trying to exit,'' said James Beadle, portfolio manager at Pilgrim Asset Management in Moscow.

Wall Street Journal:
- Russia Is Still a Hungry Empire.

NY Times:
- 18 New NYC Charter Schools to Open in September, Bloomberg Announces.
- Running a Hedge Fund Is Harder Than It Looks on TV.

The Detroit News:
- College presidents from about 100 of the nation's best-known universities, including Duke, Dartmouth and Ohio State are calling on lawmakers to consider lowering the drinking age from 21 to 18, saying current laws encourage dangerous binge drinking on campus.

The Washington Post:
- Barack Obama has proposed giving NASA an extra $2 billion, promising to make space exploration a higher priority if elected.

Reuters:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) has released a software update for the iPhone following customers’ complaints that the handsets were losing connections. The software became available for download today.
- The top U.S. securities regulator plans to propose new short selling rules in the next few weeks. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox said on Tuesday that the proposal "will focus on market-wide solutions" but is not intended to have any impact on the direction of prices. Cox also said fails to deliver "were reduced substantially" for the stocks covered under the SEC's recent emergency short selling rule.
- China's huge state banks are poised to report strong profit growth for the first half in 2008, thanks to wider margins and strong fee income, but funding costs are expected to rise in the second half, eroding growth. Chinese lenders are likely to face a harder time for the rest of the year and beyond as customers lock up funds in time deposits and move away from more profitable demand deposits, and as a weak stock market dents enthusiasm for investing in shares. Asset quality is expected to deteriorate as property firms are hit by Beijing's clampdown on borrowing and exporters are squeezed by a weakening U.S. economy and higher costs.

Financial Times:
- Swiss central bank President Jean-Pierre Roth said the economy is slowing more than policy makers had expected and that inflation should ease as the price of oil declines.

International Herald Tribune:
- A new study by the International Monetary Fund could fuel an uneasy feeling already stirring in financial markets that some Asian central banks are drawing down their currency reserves a bit too fast for comfort. In a challenge to conventional wisdom, including that of the Fund, two IMF researchers say the huge war chests in most Asian countries are not too big in light of the potential for international capital flows to come to a screeching halt.

AFP:
- Seven Russian armored vehicles, three tanks and other military vehicles today left the Georgian city of Gori, near the separatist region of South Ossetia.

Canadian Business Online:
- Hedge fund operator Paul Eustace, a Canadian who controlled Philadelphia Alternative Asset Management, has been ordered to pay more than US$279 million to defrauded customers and more than US$12 million in civil penalties.

The Manila Times:
- PHILIPPINE economic managers have revised downwards the country’s economic growth goal while raising its inflation target this year owing to costlier food and fuel, government sources said.

Arab Times:
- Kuwait’s government approved measures to control prices of goods in the Gulf state. The plans include increasing subsidies for Kuwaitis and capping prices of goods sold at co-operative societies. Kuwaiti inflation accelerated to a record 11.4% in April and slowed to 11.1% in May.

National:
- Aldar Properties PJSC, Abu Dhabi’s biggest developer, plans to restrict resale of its properties to discourage speculation.

Bear Radar

quzStyle Underperformer:

Small-cap Value -1.85%

Sector Underperformers:

Gaming irlind (-5.87%), Airlines (-5.69%) and Retail (-3.06%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

NGLS, ANW, VIP, TWI and AIN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) SPLS 2) AMLN 3) NRG 4) NCC 5) SLM

Producer Prices Above Estimates, Housing Starts Lowest in 17 Years

- The Producer Price Index for July rose 1.2% versus estimates of a .6% increase and a 1.8% gain in June.

- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for July rose .7% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .2% increase in June.

- Housing Starts for July fell to 965K versus estimates of 960K and 1084K in June.

- Building Permits for July fell to 937K versus estimates of 970K and 1138K in June.

BOTTOM LINE: Prices paid to US producers rose more than economists had forecast in July, reflecting the jump in energy and commodity costs that has since started to wane, Bloomberg reported. Oil prices have plunged 21% since the start of last month, natural gas is down 42%, copper is down 15% and corn has dropped 14%, helping lower the cost pressures on companies. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.16%, which is the lowest since October 14, 2003 and down 47 basis points in about six weeks. The 10-year yield is also unch. on today’s reports. Gold is falling another .7% and the US Dollar Index is down .08%. I expect the PPI to show significant deceleration next month and continue to improve over the intermediate-term.

Builders in the US broke ground on the fewest houses in 17 years in July, Bloomberg reported. Compared with July 2007, work began on 30% fewer homes. The decline in starts was led by a 30% decrease in the Northeast. Construction fell 8.2% in both the South and West. They rose 10% in the Mid-west. According to BankRate.com, the avg. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has declined 15 basis points since July 23^rd to 6.37%. I continue to expect new home construction to remain subdued over the intermediate-term as builders reduce inventory. The number of new homes for sale fell in June by the most in 40 years.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Growth (-.39%)

Sector Outperformers:

Oil Service (+1.72%), Energy (+1.49%) and Medical Equipment (+.20%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

ENG, WMB, POT, NTES, AFFY, FSYS, OFIX, AFAM, SCX and OTE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) SPLS 2) GEOY 3) TASR 4) LLY 5) UAUA