Style Outperformer:
Small-cap Value (+1.74%)
Sector Outperformers:
Airlines (+9.27%), Retail (+3.30%) and Restaurants (+2.96%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
PT, AXA, VMED, PRU, FSS, BAC, GE, ABT, UDRL, CLMT, SCRX, EGLT, DXPE, BRKR, WBMD, HIBB, AMAG, UAUA, GIII, MRTN, URBN, PACW, SNCR, NTCT, PETM, SBSI, BAGL, CYBX, GOOG, ISH, PFM, JKL, PJP, PMR, PVD, SCX, CUK, IJS and SDY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) AXP 2) MAT 3) JBLU 4) CCL 5) VRX
Click here for The Coming Week by TheStreet.com.
Click here for Stocks on the Move for Tuesday by Bloomberg.
There are a few economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. –
Tues. – ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Construction Spending
Wed. – Total Vehicle Sales, weekly retail sales reports, Fed’s Beige Book, Factory Orders, Challenger Job Cuts, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report
Thur. – Weekly EIA energy inventory report, ADP Employment Change, Non-farm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing, ICSC Chain Store Sales
Fri. – Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. –
Tues. – Donaldson Co.(DCI)
Wed. – Joy Global(JOYG), H&R Block(HRB), Hovnanian Enterprises(HOV), Staples(SPLS), Guess? Inc.(GES)
Thur. – Jackosn Hewitt Tax Services(JTX), Ciena Corp.(CIEN), Cooper Cos.(COO), ADC Telecom(ADCT), Quiksilver Inc.(ZQK), Toll Brothers(TOL)
Fri. – National Semi(NSM), Korn/Ferry(KFI)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – US markets closed
Tue. – Lehman Brothers Energy Conference, Citigroup Tech Conference,
Wed. – Kaufman Brothers Investor Conference, Keefe Bruyette Woods Insurance Conference, Citigroup Tech Conference, Lehman Consumer Conference, Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference, Goldman Sachs Retail Conference, Morgan Keegan Equity Conference
Thur. – Goldman Retail Conference, Keefe Bruyette Woods Insurance Conference, Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference, Morgan Keegan Equity Conference, Cowen Clean Energy Conference, Kaufman Brothers Investor Conference, Citigroup Tech Conference, Lehman Consumer Conference, Needham HDD Investor Day, CSFB Automotive Conference
Fri. – Kaufman Brothers Investor Conference, Morgan Keegan Equity Conference, Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher bargain-hunting, less credit market angst, diminishing financial sector pessimism, less economic pessimism, mostly positive earnings reports, lower commodity prices, a stronger US dollar and short-covering. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week. I will be unable to post the Tuesday Watch due to a scheduling conflict. I hope everyone had a safe and happy holiday weekend.
Indices
S&P 500 1,282.83 -.72%
DJIA 11,543.96 -.72%
NASDAQ 2,367.52 -1.95%
Russell 2000 739.50 +.26%
Wilshire 5000 13,061.77 -.52%
Russell 1000 Growth 547.22 -1.41%
Russell 1000 Value 684.07 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 688.42 -1.10%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 874.13 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 560.09 -2.63%
Transports 5,103.40 +.92%
Utilities 477.52 -.51%
MSCI Emerging Markets 40.08 +.18%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 45,104 +9.14%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -183 +54.02%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.0 -30.9%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 205,459 +.55%
Total Put/Call .99 +15.12%
OEX Put/Call 1.98 +214.29%
ISE Sentiment 132.0 -12.58%
NYSE Arms 1.68 +82.60%
Volatility(VIX) 20.65 +9.78%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.33 +3.2%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,643.68 +2.46%
AAII % Bulls 30.68 -19.48%
AAII % Bears 45.45 +21.85%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 115.64 +.73%
Reformulated Gasoline 286.17 +2.26%
Natural Gas 8.02 +.62%
Heating Oil 320.0 +.95%
Gold 835.30 +.76%
Base Metals 219.21 -3.54%
Copper 337.95 -2.30%
Agriculture 409.98 -5.23%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.81% -6 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 2.14% -5 basis points
TED Spread 1.10 -2 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 142.93 +1.26%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 263.11 -.38%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +72.50 +58.30%
Fed Fund Futures 8.0% chance of 25 hike, 92.0% chance of no move on 9/16
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 74.0 -.29%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 440,300 -1.3%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.40% -7 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 421,600 +.55%
Weekly Retail Sales +1.5%
Nationwide Gas $3.67/gallon -.02/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 20.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 125.50 -.24%
US Dollar Index 77.29 +.75%
Baltic Dry Index 6,929 -3.63%
CRB Index 391.71 -.78%
Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Value +.58%
Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Growth -1.41%
Leading Sectors
Gaming +4.68%
I-Banks +3.97%
Homebuilders +3.52%
Banks +3.11%
Road & Rail +2.94%
Lagging Sectors
HMOs -1.86%
Foods -1.93%
Restaurants -2.85%
Semis -3.29%
Computer Hardware -3.32%
