Thursday, September 04, 2008

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Growth (-3.15%)

Sector Underperformers:

Steel irlind (-5.89%), Homebuilding (-5.88%) and Coal (-5.02%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

OLN, CMC, CLF, BCS, VIP, MBT, ABB, PBR, STO, WBD, TSN, CIEN, CAVM, ADTN, ATMI, JOYG, NETL, SHPGY, AFAM, AAUK, DIOD, MRVL, ORCL, POWI, TEX, BBV, VOL and BTH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) CAG 2) IOC 3) TIVO 4) TEX 5) SINA

2Q Productivity Jumps, Unit Labor Costs Fall, Jobless Claims Rise, Service Sector Expanding Slightly, Prices Paid Declines

- ADP Employment Change for August was -33K versus estimates of -30K and +1K in July.

- Final 2Q Non-farm Productivity rose 4.3% versus estimates of a 3.5% increase and a 2.2% gain in 1Q.

- Final 2Q Unit Labor Costs fell .5% versus estimates of unch. and a 1.3% rise in 1Q.

- Initial Jobless Claims for last were 444K versus estimates of 420K and 429K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims were 3435K versus estimates of 3420K and 3429K prior.

- ISM Non-Manufacturing for August rose to 50.6 versus estimates of 49.5 and a reading of 49.5 in July.

BOTTOM LINE: US worker productivity in the second quarter increased more than previously estimated and labor costs unexpectedly declined, Bloomberg reported. 2Q productivity rose at a 4.3% annual rate, the highest since 3Q 2007 and more than double the long-term average of 1.9%. Productivity at non-financial corporations, a gauge closely monitored by the Fed, soared at a 5.6% rate in 2Q. 2Q Unit Labor Costs, the main component of inflation, fell at a -.5% annual rate, the lowest since 3Q 2007 and well below the long-term average of +3.0% increases. I still expect Unit Labor Costs to remain subdued over the intermediate-term and Productivity to remain above average rates.

First-time claims for unemployment insurance rose more than forecast, Bloomberg reported. However, the four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 438,000 from 441,250 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at 2.6% versus the long-term average unemployment rate of 2.9%. 23 states and territories reported a decline in jobless claims. The ADP Employment Change for August was -33K versus estimates of -30K and +1K in July. Companies with more than 499 workers cut their workforces by 28,000. Medium-sized businesses, with 50-499 employees, eliminated 25,000 jobs, while small businesses actually added 20,000 new employees. I expect the Change in Non-farm Payrolls for August, released tomorrow, to modestly exceed estimates of -75K.

US services industries, which make up almost 90% of the US economy, grew in August as a measure of prices fell by the most in almost two years, Bloomberg reported. The Prices Paid component fell to 72.9, the second straight decline, from 80.8 a month earlier. The New Orders component rose to 49.7 versus 47.9 in July. Supplier Deliveries rose to 55.5 from 53.5 a month earlier. The Inventory component fell to 53.5 from 54.5 in July. The Employment component of the index fell to 45.4 versus 47.1 in July. I suspect the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will improve again next month on lower energy/food prices, better consumer sentiment, decelerating inflation and low interest rates. The Citi eurozone economic surprise index is falling to -164.2 and the US economic surprise index is rising to +73.60 today. The US Dollar Index is surging another .59% and the 10-year yield is falling another 3 basis points to 3.66% on today’s news. The BankRate.com average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is falling another 6 basis points to 6.19%, which is down 33 basis points in a little over five weeks, which is a big positive.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Value (-1.51%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+.77%), Computer Services (-1.28%) and Retail (-1.43%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

UN, UL, STRA, KOK, WMT, CLMT, CLNE, BIOD, CRMT, CGRB, CACH, ZUMZ, CEPH, SPWR, MDVN, PPDI, BSI, UST, WF, GES, PSS, MR, BZC, MTR, OGE and EAS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) MAS 2) MW 3) NUAN 4) PSS 5) TEX

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
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WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
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Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Thursday Watch

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (ERTS), target $64.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 futures -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
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Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
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Today in IBD
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (JTX)/-.69
- (CIEN)/.37
- (TOL)/-.35
- (ADCT)/.27
- (COO)/.65
- (MATK)/.25
- (ZQK)/.20
- (MOV)/.41

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST

- The ADP Employment Change for August is estimated at -30K versus +9K in July.

8:30 am EST
- Final 2Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise 3.5% versus a 2.2% increase in 1Q.
- Final 2Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated unch. versus a 1.3% gain in 1Q.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 420K versus 425K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3420K versus 3423K prior.

10:00 am EST:
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for August is estimated at 49.5 versus 49.5 in July.

10:35 am EST:
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of 450,000 barrels versus a -3,502,000 barrel drawdown the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall by -1,300,000 barrels versus a -1,179,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by 1,000,000 barrels versus a 57,000 barrel increase the prior week. Refinery Utilization is expected to rise .2% versus a 1.58% increase the prior week. Finally, Natural Gas supplies are estimated to rise by 90bcf versus a 102 bcf injection the prior week.

Upcoming Splits
- (ISYS) 2-for-1
- (ATVID) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Fisher speaking, Fed’s Yellen speaking, ICSC August Chain Store Sales, (TEX) analyst meeting, Goldman Retail Conference, Keefe Bruyette Woods Insurance Conference, Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference, Morgan Keegan Equity Conference, Cowen Clean Energy Conference, Kaufman Brothers Investor Conference, Citigroup Tech Conference, Lehman Consumer Conference, Needham HDD Investor Day and CSFB Automotive Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and shipping shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finished Mixed as Losses in Commodity, Construction and Tech Stocks Offset Gains in Financial, Retail and REIT Shares

Evening Review
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GuruFocus.com

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In Play