- Chinese steel prices aren’t likely to rally until automakers and builders use up more of their inventories, said John Kovacs, an analyst at London-based metals consultant CRU Ltd.Inventories in Shanghai soared to their highest in at least 2 ½ years in March.Prices in China, the world’s largest user of the metal, for hot rolled coil declined 42% in the past year to $482 a metric ton, according to Metal Bulletin. “Prices won’t rise until the current inventory levels come down,” Kovacs said.“Inventory levels are still fairly high in all major cities in China.”
Market News International: - Chinese banks made about $90 billion in new loans in April.It would be the lowest monthly increase in loans since November, the news agency said.
- The Euro may be set for a sudden slide if the European Central Bank announces plans to buy debt at today’s policy meeting, Citigroup says.The US dollar dropped after the Federal Reserve announced March 18 it would start buying Treasuries to hold down consumer borrowing costs. “The present Euro-dollar setup suggests a non-linear reaction,” analysts led by NY-based Tom Fitzpatrick wrote in a note yesterday.“A dovish surprise looks much more likely to illicit a sharp move to the down side while an as expected outcome may have little material effect.”
- The cost to protect against a default by banks including Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped on reports suggesting that the biggest US lenders will have to raise less capital than investors.Contracts on Morgan Stanley dropped 78 basis points to 275 basis points, CMA data show.Swaps on Citigroup plunged 131 basis points to 423, Goldman Sachs fell 37 to 200, Wells Fargo declined 49 to 181, Bank of America fell 48 to 228 and JPMorgan dropped 28 to 128, according to CMA.Credit swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 12 dropped 12 basis points to 144 basis points as of 5pm in NY, according to CMA DataVision. The index, which typically falls as investor confidence improves, has dropped 53 basis points since the end of March.
- The cost of protecting Japanese corporate bonds from default plunged, according to traders of credit-default swaps.The Markit iTraxx Japan index fell 60 basis points to 260 as of 10:18 am in Tokyo, according to Morgan Stanley prices.The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan fell 21 basis points to 212.5 as of 9:05 am in Hong Kong, according to ICAP Plc.The Markit iTraxx Australia index was quoted 32.5 basis points lower at 240 as of 11:18 am in Sydney, Citigroup Inc. data show.
- Platinum may decline toward $800 an ounce, reversing this year’s 23% gain, as the metal slumps into a “bear trend,” Standard Chartered Bank forecast, citing trading patterns.“Spot platinum is resuming the bear trend, with trendline support giving way and a slide below $1,002 and $999 to build,” David Barclay, the bank’s commodity strategist, wrote.“A break down towards $800 should follow.”
- Alumina Ltd., partner in the world’s biggest producer of the material used to make aluminum, said demand for the metal may contract further this year and expects more cuts to production.“Global demand for aluminum is expected to contract by a further seven percent in 2009,” CEO John Bevan said today. “We expect curtailments will continue during this year.”
- Preliminary 1Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise .6% versus a .4% decline in 4Q.
- Preliminary 1Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise 2.7% versus a 5.7% gain in 4Q.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 635K versus 631K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 6350K versus 6271K prior.
- ICSC Chain Store Sales for April are estimated to fall 1.0% versus a 2.1% decline in March.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for March is estimated at -$4.0B versus -$7.5B in February.
Upcoming Splits - None of note
Other Potential Market Movers - The Fed’s Evans speaking, Fed’s Bernanke speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (POT) shareholders meeting, (VZ) shareholders meeting and the (BTU) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by automaker and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.