Monday, October 05, 2009

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Wells Fargo & Co.(WFC), JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM) and the biggest U.S. banks were raised to “attractive” from “neutral” by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said share prices don’t reflect prospects for earnings growth. “We believe this difference in earnings power hasn’t been fully reflected in share prices,” New York-based analysts led by Richard Ramsden wrote in a note to clients today. “We estimate that normalized earnings for large banks are 39 percent higher than in 2007 despite the 36 percent decline in share prices.”

- A measure of U.S. job prospects rose in September for the first time in more than a year, a sign job losses may not keep accelerating, a private survey showed. The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rose 0.3 to 88.5, the first increase since January 2008 and the highest level since April, the New York-based private research group said today. The reading was down 16 percent from a year ago.

- U.S. home-loan bonds without government backing ended a third-quarter rally with a week of gains, leaving some securities at prices almost double their lows. Typical prices for the most-senior prime-jumbo securities rose 2 cents on the dollar last week to 84 cents, according to Barclays Capital data. Similar bonds backed by Alt-A loans with a few years of fixed rates increased 2 cents to 60 cents. The jumbo bonds are up from about 75 cents three months earlier, while the Alt-A bonds have climbed from 47 cents.

- U.S. service industries expanded in September for the first time in a year as the emerging recovery spread from housing and factories to the broader economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, rose to 50.9, higher than forecast, from 48.4 in August, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. “We should continue to see broad improvement in the economy,” said Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. Even so, she said, “hurdles remain within the side of the economy that creates jobs. It’s going to be growth, but weak growth.” The ISM non-manufacturing gauge of new orders rose to the highest since October 2007, and the index of employment gained to 44.3, the highest since August 2008 and signaling job cuts were decelerating.

- Home prices in the Hamptons, the oceanside summer getaway for celebrities and Wall Street financiers, climbed 12 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier on an increase in high-end sales. The median price rose to $840,000 across the 15 villages and hamlets that make up the East End of Long Island, according to a report by the Corcoran Group, a New York-based property broker with offices in the Hamptons. The median for luxury homes, defined as the top 10 percent by price, jumped 23 percent to $5.9 million. “We usually see Wall Street bonus money stepping up to the plate in the second quarter,” said Rick Hoffman, a Bridgehampton-based senior vice president for Corcoran. “Some of it may have stepped up in the third quarter as people realized this is a buying opportunity.”

- Legislation aimed at tightening oversight of the $592 trillion derivatives market would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission new authority to police over-the-counter commodity swaps as well as derivatives traded on foreign exchanges. The commission would get the power sought by Chairman Gary Gensler to regulate bilateral swaps in commodities such as wheat and natural gas, and may impose position limits on speculation that takes place outside of regulated exchanges, according to a 187-page draft measure released Oct. 2 by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank.

- The cost to protect against defaults on U.S. corporate bonds fell for the second day as a report showed the nation’s service industries expanded last month for the first time in a year. Credit default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment- Grade Index Series 13, which is linked to 125 companies with investment-grade credit ratings and used to speculate on creditworthiness, fell 4.5 basis points to 102 basis points as of 11:57 a.m. in New York, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. The Markit CDX index has declined 13 basis points after climbing to an almost one-month high of 115 basis points in intraday trading on Oct. 2, Phoenix prices show.

- Investors are snapping up commodities at the fastest pace in 18 months just as stockpiles of raw materials rise and shipping rates plunge, signaling that prices may be poised to fall. Open interest, or contracts yet to be closed, liquidated or delivered, rose 6.6 percent in the third quarter for the 20 most-traded U.S. commodities, exchange data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the steepest gain since the first three months of 2008, just before the credit-market freeze sent prices plunging from records. While the U.S. economy shows signs of bottoming after the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression, supplies of raw materials are growing faster than demand. Oil inventories rose 15 percent in the past year, Energy Department figures show. The Baltic Dry Index, a barometer for raw-material demand, slid 41 percent in the third quarter. “We’ve been moving out of our commodity holdings and into cash,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage $13.8 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati and correctly predicted last year’s price declines. “People got so excited about growth coming back, but now no one is quite sure what the traction of the recovery will be.” A “protracted global slowdown” may mean the 90 percent surge in copper prices and oil’s 57 percent gain in 2009 was a “short boom,” the International Monetary Fund said on Oct. 1. Philip Verleger, the University of Calgary economist who correctly forecast in 2007 that oil would reach $100 a barrel, now says crude will fall below $40 by year-end. Copper may average 22 percent less this quarter than last, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, after monthly shipments of refined copper into China, the world’s biggest user, tumbled 25 percent in August. Investors poured $10.2 billion into commodity funds this year, a six-fold increase from a year earlier, according to researcher EPFR Global in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Investors turned the most bearish on the dollar in 18 months in September as signs of a worldwide economic recovery reduced demand for the currency as a refuge, according to 583 respondents in the Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index. Forward rates indicate the dollar will be little changed in six months. Warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange held 34 percent more copper on Oct. 2 than on July 14, when supplies reached a 2009 low. Inventories rose to 346,050 tons on Oct. 1, the highest since May 20. Stockpiles measured by the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a five-year high last month. In its semi-annual World Economic Outlook, the IMF said commodities gains similar to those of late 2007 and the first half of 2008 may be delayed for years.

- French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Europe’s economic recovery doesn’t justify further gains in the euro, underlining the Group of Seven’s call for China to shoulder more of the burden of the dollar’s slide. “The European economy is not doing badly but it’s not doing so well that its currency can be the ultimate recourse,” Lagarde said today in an interview in Istanbul, where the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are taking place. “We need a rebalancing so that one currency doesn’t take the flak for the others.”


Wall Street Journal:

- Data-storage and networking company Brocade Communications Systems Inc.(BRCD) has quietly put itself up for sale, people familiar with the matter said. Hewlett-Packard Co.(HPQ) is among those kicking the tires, these people said. Other companies including Oracle Corp.(ORCL) may also be examining a purchase, said one of the people familiar with the matter.

- Many companies backing action on climate change stand to gain if the U.S. requires corporations to pay for the right to emit carbon dioxide.

- The European Commission will propose raising a minimum tax on energy products such as gasoline based on their carbon-dioxide emissions, as part of a broader plan to reform energy taxation in the 27-nation bloc, a draft document obtained by Dow Jones Newswires showed Monday.

- News Corp. (NWS/A) Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch said Monday that traditional newspaper and television advertising markets are picking up, echoing growing sentiment that the media industry may rebound from steep losses.


CNBC:

- Obama Advisors Mull Tax Cuts, Other Job-Creation Measures.


NY Times:

- China plans to spend billions of dollars in the next few years to develop media and entertainment companies that it hopes can compete with global giants like the News Corporation(NWS/A) and Time Warner(TWX), and will in the process loosen some of its tight control of these industries. An ambitious plan, set forth in guidelines last week by China’s State Council, envisions the creation of entertainment, news and culture companies with a market orientation and with less government backing. China, in short, would like to consolidate its industry into companies resembling Bloomberg, Time Warner and Viacom, analysts say. “There appears to be a feeling at the highest levels of government that they need a media machine commensurate to the rising status and power of China,” says Jim Laurie, a former ABC News correspondent who teaches at Hong Kong University and recently met with Chinese state broadcasting executives. Beijing hopes the moves will even improve the nation’s image overseas — part of a longstanding effort to use “soft power,” rather than military might to win friends abroad. Along the way, Beijing will allow private and foreign companies to invest in everything from music, film and television to theater, dance and opera productions — though largely through state-owned companies.

- The Managed Funds Association, the hedge fund industry’s main lobbying group, has selected Darcy Bradbury, a former assistant Treasury secretary and a senior vice president for the D.E. Shaw group, to serve as its chairwoman. The move comes as hedge funds are stepping up their efforts to head off new regulation from Washington.

Washington Post:

- The nation's governors are emerging as a formidable lobbying force as health-care reform moves through Congress and states overburdened by the recession brace for the daunting prospect of providing coverage to millions of low-income residents. The legislation the Senate Finance Committee is expected to approve this week calls for the biggest expansion of Medicaid since its creation in 1965. Under the Senate bill and a similar House proposal, a patchwork state-federal insurance program targeted mainly at children, pregnant women and disabled people would effectively become a Medicare for the poor, a health-care safety net for all people with an annual income below $14,404. Whether Medicaid can absorb a huge influx of beneficiaries is a matter of grave concern to many governors, who have cut low-income health benefits -- along with school funding, prison construction, state jobs and just about everything else -- to cope with the most severe economic downturn in decades. "I can't think of a worse time for this bill to be coming," said Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), a member of the National Governors Association's health-care task force. "I'd love to see it happen. But nobody's going to put their state into bankruptcy or their education system in the tank for it."


The Hill:

- Venture capitalists breathed a collective sigh of relief Thursday when a proposal from the House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee did not seek to treat them like private equity firms or hedge funds. Venture capital investors had been lobbying against such a measure, saying that being required to register with the Securitiesand Exchange Commission like hedge funds and other private pools of money was unnecessary and expensive.


The Business Insider:

- The GM of Microsoft's (MSFT) in-game advertising unit Massive says business is booming. In a post to the company blog, JJ Richards writes that the ads-in-videogames market should reach $1 billion by 2014 and that Massive has already surpassed its quarterly sales targets.


LA Times:

- About 1 in 100 of America's 8-year-olds have been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researchers, who will be releasing details of their study later this year. That's a 50% increase from two years ago, when the government estimated the rate at 1 in 150. Dr. Ileana Arias, deputy director of the CDC, said the agency considers the disorder "a significant issue that needs immediate attention." But the higher rate might not mean more kids have autism spectrum disorder, scientists cautioned. "It is not clear more children are affected rather than just changes in our ability to detect," said Dr. Tom Insel, director of the National Institute of Mental Health.


USAToday:

- The president of Somalia on Sunday denounced the recruiting of young men from Minnesota's huge Somali community for terrorist activity in his war-ravaged homeland, and said he plans to work with the U.S. government to bring those still alive back home. President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed spoke with The Associated Press while visiting the Minneapolis area, where authorities believe as many as 20 young Somali men — possibly recruited by a vision of jihad to fight — returned to the impoverished nation over the last two years. At least three have died in Somalia, including one who authorities believe was the first American suicide bomber. Three others have pleaded guilty in the U.S. to terror-related charges.

- Moviegoers in about a dozen cities including San Francisco, Tucson, Las Vegas and Albuquerque will soon have an alternative to Imax (IMAX) when they want to see supersized flicks. Cinemark (CNK), the third-largest theater chain, has caught the attention of the movie industry — and investors — with a plan for its own big-screen system, called Cinemark XD, in time for the Christmas movie season.


Reuters:

- U.S. President Barack Obama has no plans now for a second economic stimulus package, spokesman Robert Gibbs said on Monday. "No, I think we've said all along that there were no plans for that," Gibbs said at a daily news briefing.


Financial Times:

- Asian central banks and regulators are moving to curb rising property prices, in a sign they have adopted a more aggressive stance on pre-empting asset bubbles. Singapore and South Korea in the past month have tightened rules governing loans to the property sector and Indian media report that the country may soon follow suit. China and Hong Kong have also warned banks to avoid imprudent lending to homebuyers. “This is a positive, albeit tentative, sign that Asia has learnt from the experience of the west,” said Rob Subbaraman, chief Asia economist at Nomura. “It is prudent to lean against the formation of asset price bubbles.”


Telegraph:

- According to sources close to the administration, Gen McChrystal shocked and angered presidential advisers with the bluntness of a speech given in London last week. The next day he was summoned to an awkward 25-minute face-to-face meeting on board Air Force One on the tarmac in Copenhagen, where the president had arrived to tout Chicago's unsuccessful Olympic bid.


DigiTimes:

- Demand for LED chips is set to outpace supply growth in 2010 due to the increasing penetration rates of LED TVs and LED notebooks, according to industry sources in Taiwan. Demand for LED chips from the LED TV segment is likely to top 1.2 billion units a month based on a projection of global shipments of 15 million LED TVs, or 10% of the global shipments of flat-panel TVs in 2009, the sources estimated. Some branded TV vendors have even predicted that global shipments of LED TVs in 2009 may reach as high as 30 million units, further pushing up demand for LED chips, the sources added. Meanwhile, the penetration rate of LED notebooks in the entire notebook segment is also expected to climb to 80% in 2010, from 50% in 2009, said the sources. The shortage of LED chips is unlikely to wane until 2012.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Large-Cap Growth (+.49%)

Sector Underperformers:
Education (-.43%), Software (-.27%) and Medical Equipment (+.11%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
SGEN, MLHR and AMAG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) NXY 2) AMX 3) ACH 4) CBS 5) CLX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-Cap Value (+2.08%)

Sector Outperformers:
Disk Drives (+2.56%), Hospitals (+2.52%) and REITs (+2.48%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
VIP, MBT, ATPG, COF, WFC, CYN, BMA, HES, COP, AGO, OSK, MED, TLVT, RINO, DTSI, HUBG, SMSC, DDRX, HEAT, XNPT, QSFT, NTAP, MLNX, ENDP, HITK SMRT, BGFV, RIMM, MSCC, JOYG, WATG, TBH, PSO,CMN, SGA, BRP, NTG and HBI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) BRCD 2) VRTX 3) LLTC 4) TXN 5) KSS

Trading Links

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets

Briefing.com Stock Market Update

Stocks On The Move
Upgrades/Downgrades

WSJ Data Center

Markit CDS Market Summary

Commodity Futures

StockCharts Market Performance Summary

Morningstar Style Performance
Sector Performance
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

Chart Toppers
CNBC Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Legislation tightening oversight of the $592 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market would give regulators authority to ban so-called abusive swaps. The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission would get the power to “prohibit transactions in any swap” that regulators determine “would be detrimental to the stability of a financial market or of participants in a financial market,” according to a 187-page draft measure released yesterday by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank. Opaque financial products, including some derivatives, have contributed to almost $1.6 trillion in writedowns and losses at the world’s biggest banks, brokers and insurers since the start of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

- Robert Halderman, a producer for CBS Corp. television, pleaded not guilty to charges he tried to extort $2 million from talk show host David Letterman in exchange for not revealing sexual affairs.

- The dollar strengthened the most against the euro in four months as public officials from Gothenburg, Sweden to Tokyo said a strong U.S. currency is essential to the global economy. The greenback advanced this week to the highest level versus the euro in almost a month as finance chiefs converging on Istanbul for Group of Seven talks today pushed for a “strong dollar.” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pledged support for such a policy, and European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said it was “extremely important.” “All of a sudden, Geithner and Trichet are all talking about the strong-dollar policy,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “The threshold for pain on the euro is a lot lower than it used to be.”

- The International Monetary Fund said central banks in Europe should keep interest rates low and possibly extend non-standard stimulus measures because the region’s economic recovery is likely to be “slow and fragile.” “Monetary policy will need to remain supportive for the time being and keep all options open,” the IMF said in its economic outlook for Europe published in Istanbul today. “In the advanced economies, there might still be additional room for maneuver through a more forceful signal of the intent to keep interest rates low and the extension of non-standard measures.” The recovery will likely be slow because increasing demand for European goods in Asia “can hardly substitute for the pre-crisis appetite for imports of U.S. consumers,” said Marek Belka, director of the IMF’s European department. “In addition, credit remains scarce, unemployment is rising, and the crisis has reduced Europe’s growth potential,” he said in the report.

- Eight U.S. soldiers and two Afghan troops died in a gun battle with militants in eastern Afghanistan, according to the coalition force. Militants from a nearby mosque and village attacked two outposts in Nuristan province yesterday, NATO’s International Security Assistance Force said in a statement today. Coalition forces retaliated, “inflicting heavy enemy casualties,” according to the statement.

- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said regulators should consider making bank holding companies and secured creditors carry more of the cost of bank failures. “This could involve potentially limiting their claims to no more than, say, 80 percent of their secured credits,” Bair said in a speech to a banking conference in Istanbul today. “This would ensure that market participants always have some skin in the game, and it would be very strong medicine indeed.” Bair’s comments go beyond any of her previous proposals for changing the way large and so-called systemically important financial institutions are treated to reduce the risk of their failure. She has long supported broadening the government’s powers so that it can limit the impact of a collapse such as last year’s bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

- Investors are snapping up commodities at the fastest pace in 18 months just as stockpiles of raw materials rise and shipping rates plunged, signaling that prices may be poised to fall. Open interest, or contracts yet to be closed, liquidated or delivered, rose 6.6% in the third quarter for the 20 most-traded US commodities, exchange data compiles by Bloomberg show. That’s the steepest gain since the first three months of 2008, just before the credit-market freeze sent prices plunging from records.

- President Barack Obama should consider legislation to limit greenhouse gas emissions as he looks for new ways to speed the U.S. economy’s recovery from the recession, said Senator Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat. Boxer and Senator John Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, last week unveiled a “cap-and-trade” proposal to cut U.S. greenhouse gases 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. In June, the House passed a cap-and-trade plan with a 17 percent cut. After the Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate hit 9.8 percent last month, the highest level since 1983, Obama said he was working to “explore any and all additional” means of spurring growth. Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus package in February. Asked on CNN’s “State of the Union” what extra steps the White House should take to stimulate the economy, Boxer said “it could be moving forward with an energy bill.” Environmentalists want Congress to pass and Obama to sign a cap-and-trade bill before December, when the United Nations will host more than 190 nations in Copenhagen for negotiations over a new global agreement to cut emissions. Rather than stimulate the economy through investments in cleaner energy sources, Republicans have said cap-and-trade will raise the cost of the existing sources that fuel the economy and hinder growth. “Don’t be pushing bills like cap-and-trade, which are big job killers,” Senator Jon Kyl, an Arizona Republican, said on the same CNN program as Boxer. The Boxer-Kerry cap-and-trade bill also has critics within the Democratic Party. Senator Jay Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democrat, said Sept. 30 the bill’s 20 percent cut in emissions by 2020 is “unrealistic and harmful.”

- The federal government should not consider a new stimulus package, even with U.S. unemployment likely “to penetrate the 10 percent barrier and stay there for a while,” former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said. “The focus has got to be on trying to get the economy going, but you also have to be careful that in trying to do too much you can actually be counterproductive,” Greenspan said on ABC’s “This Week” program. Greenspan appeared on ABC two days after the Labor Department reported an unemployment rate of 9.8 percent, the highest since 1983. Third-quarter economic growth is likely to be 3 percent and “possibly even higher,” Greenspan said today on ABC. Only 40 percent of the $787 billion economic stimulus package approved in February is “in place,” he said. “It’s far better to wait and see how this momentum that’s already begun to develop in the economy carries forward,” he said. While last week’s unemployment report was “pretty awful no matter how you looked at it,” the economy is recovering and it would be “premature” for Obama and Congress to enact another stimulus package, Greenspan said. “We are in a recovery and I think it would be a mistake to say the September (unemployment) numbers alter that significantly,” he said. The “silver lining” to the unemployment numbers is that firms have cut jobs expecting “the economy would go down far more sharply than it in fact did” after the “whole financial system imploded” following the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Greenspan said. U.S. firms “laid off a very substantial number of people to the point that the actual hours worked fell even more than the economy,” and this trend “can’t continue,” he said. “At some point we’re going to start to see an improvement in employment,” Greenspan said.

- Hand Over Your Job If You Want to Dream in Green.


Wall Street Journal:

- A deal to merge General Electric Co.'s(GE) NBC Universal into a new joint venture with Comcast Corp.'s(CMCSA) cable networks might solve pressing needs for both companies. But a number of financial and legal issues still hang over the talks, which are still at an early stage. While both sides hope to complete a deal, people familiar with the matter give the transaction "50-50" odds of coming together. In the deal under discussion, Comcast would contribute cash and its cable networks to NBC Universal for a 51% stake in the expanded company. NBC Universal would borrow money that would be turned over to GE, along with the cash contribution, according to the person familiar with the matter. GE would use that cash to buy out a 20% stake in NBC Universal held by Vivendi SA and then pocket the remainder, the person said. In the end, GE would have a 49% stake. The chief issue for all parties remains valuation.

- White House officials and Democratic leaders in Congress on Friday said they were weighing extending key elements of the economic-stimulus program as the nation grapples with a deteriorating job market. Obama administration economists said they would like the enhanced unemployment-insurance program to extend beyond its Dec. 31 expiration date. They also want to maintain a program that offers tax credits to pay 65% of the cost of health insurance policies under the COBRA program, which allows laid-off workers to purchase the health plans they had through their previous employer. White House officials said they also are examining whether to extend a soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time homebuyers, but that provision faces a stiffer headwind. "The question is, does it need to be extended or would fiscal considerations lead us to not do so," one administration official said. "We've got a budget deficit to think about, too." Administration officials are reluctant to call these possible moves a second stimulus package because about 60% of the initial $787 billion stimulus package remains unspent and not contractually obligated to projects. They are focused on what they call the "safety net" parts of the original package, which expire Dec. 31. But since the extensions would require congressional action, they would likely reopen a debate about the fast-rising federal deficit and the effectiveness to date of the stimulus package. For the fiscal year that ended Wednesday, the government is expected to post a record $1.56 trillion budget deficit. That rise is feeding criticism of the administration's spending, and sowing some worry among officials about spending.

- The U.S. government is expecting delivery starting this week of enough doses of the new swine-flu vaccine for nearly every American who wants it, but state and local budget cuts coupled with limits on who can administer the vaccine could hamstring the campaign. A second wave of the new flu, known as the 2009 H1N1 virus, is widespread across more than half of U.S. states, but it will be weeks before millions of people who want shots can get them.

- The rush to support Roman Polanski shows how isolated the entertainment industry is from the rest of the world.

- In recent years, many Americans have had cause to wonder whether decisions made at EPA were guided by science and the law, or whether those principles had been trumped by politics," declared Lisa Jackson in San Francisco last week. The Environmental Protection Agency chief can't stop kicking the Bush Administration, but the irony is that the Obama EPA is far more "political" than the Bush team ever was. How else to explain the coordinated release on Wednesday of the EPA's new rules that make carbon a dangerous pollutant and John Kerry's cap-and-trade bill? Ms. Jackson is issuing a political ultimatum to business, as well as to Midwestern and rural Democrats: Support the Kerry-Obama climate tax agenda—or we'll punish your utilities and consumers without your vote. The EPA has now formally made an "endangerment finding" on CO2, which will impose the command-and-control regulations of the Clean Air Act across the entire economy. Because this law was never written to apply to carbon, the costs will far exceed those of a straight carbon tax or even cap and trade—though judging by the bills Democrats are stitching together, perhaps not by much. In any case, the point of this reckless "endangerment" is to force industry and politicians wary of raising taxes to concede, lest companies have to endure even worse economic and bureaucratic destruction from the EPA.

- Tensions over Iran's nuclear program were one of the main drivers pushing oil up to nearly $150 a barrel a year ago. What a difference a year makes. Oil markets have brushed off last week's disclosures about Iran's secret uranium-enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom. The news increased suspicions that Tehran may be seeking a nuclear weapon, raising the prospect of a diplomatic crisis that could prompt Iran to cut its oil exports -- but oil prices have barely budged. The reason: The world is a very different place than it was a year ago. The global economic slowdown has eroded oil demand, inventories are full, and there is plenty of spare supply. Even if Iran cuts its oil exports, Saudi Arabia has so much spare production capacity that it could easily make up the shortfall.

- After a six-year building frenzy that transformed this city, casino companies are shifting strategies dramatically toward slower growth, paying down debt and cutting back on spending. Many casino executives don't expect to break ground on another major building project in Las Vegas for at least 10 years. "The old model has been thrown out the window," says MGM Mirage Chief Executive Jim Murren. For most of this decade, casinos embarked on a debt-fueled expansion, plowing more than $30 billion into casino and hotel projects around Las Vegas. When the economy collapsed, it left casino companies with dwindling revenues and mountains of debt. Several entered bankruptcy-court proceedings. Now, casino companies are eschewing capital-intensive projects to focus on increasing profit margins through branding, marketing and customer loyalty.

- Chávez imports Ahmadinejad's ideology to Latin America.


Barron’s:

- Steris(STE) is cleaning up, as demand for sterilization equipment grows.


MarketWatch.com:

- Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a major Citigroup Inc.(C) investor, is urging the U.S. government to sell its stake in the bank as soon as this year to boost investor confidence, Emerging Markets magazine reported, according to Reuters. "The earlier the U.S. government exits its investments in those companies, the better," as long as the government's move isn't done in a way that hurts the prices of U.S. banking stocks, the Saudi billionaire was quoted as saying in an interview published Sunday, according to Reuters. "We need to give confidence back to the shareholders and investors that these companies are moving along without government support." The U.S. government has a 34% stake in Citigroup, after the bank obtained $45 billion from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

CNBC.com:
- Three more large investment firms have raised sufficient capital to participate in the joint partnership with the government to purchase toxic assets from banks. The Treasury Department said Alliance Bernstein and BlackRock, both headquartered in New York City, and Wellington Management, based in Boston, had all raised the $500 million minimum to begin operations.

NY Times:

- Senior staff members of the United Nations nuclear agency have concluded in a confidential analysis that Iran has acquired “sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable” atom bomb. The report by experts in the International Atomic Energy Agency stresses in its introduction that its conclusions are tentative and subject to further confirmation of the evidence, which it says came from intelligence agencies and its own investigations. But the report’s conclusions, described by senior European officials, go well beyond the public positions taken by several governments, including the United States.

The Business Insider:
- Letterman Backlash: Will CBS Have To Fire Him?

Business Week:
- CEO Eric Schmidt discusses how Google(GOOG) is handling challenges from Microsoft and upstarts Twitter and Facebook—and why search remains its priority.


New York:

- Is it possible to use one embattled politician to save another? That’s the implausible but intriguing scenario that New York Democrats are considering as they try to persuade David Paterson to withdraw from next year's governor's race. The turmoil engulfing one of Paterson's oldest friends, Representative Charles Rangel, could point the way to a resolution. The trickiest part about pushing Paterson out of Albany has been finding the proper cushion to soften the fall. An ambassadorship? That would require U.S. Senate confirmation and the intense scrutiny that comes with it. A post in the Obama administration? It's possible, but less likely after the governor's response to the president's request that he step down. With the options appearing limited, Democrats are quietly floating an alternative exit strategy. Rangel, one of the highest-ranking Democrats in the House, has been mired in multiple tax scandals and legislative setbacks that have weakened his standing. The 79-year-old has vigorously fended off Republican attempts to strip him of his chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee and has insisted he will seek a 21st term next year. But Rangel's Harlem clubhouse ties with Paterson and his father, Basil, which are as close as family, might help him reconsider. Should Rangel and Paterson resign from their offices next year, party leaders in Manhattan could hand the seat over to Paterson in a special election that would be virtually uncontested. The scenario has surfaced in private discussions this week among prominent Democrats, according to a source involved in the talks. "If Charlie's going to walk away in a way that helps David save face, then Charlie might choose to do that," said a Manhattan Democrat.


Politico:

- What was he thinking? Monday-morning Quarterbacking became Washington’s favorite Olympic sport Friday after President Barack Obama’s in-person pitch failed to bring home the 2016 Olympics to Chicago – and in rather dramatic fashion. Chicago was knocked out in the first-round of balloting – winning just 18 of 94 votes — making Obama’s trip to Copenhagen seem not just unsuccessful but entirely ineffective.


Rasmussen Reports:

- Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters nationwide say guaranteeing that no one is forced to change their health insurance coverage is a higher priority than giving consumers the choice of a "public option" health insurance company. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 29% take the opposite view. They say it’s more important to give people a government-sponsored non-profit health insurance option.


InvestmentNews:

- The Achilles heel of hedge funds — tax inefficiency — could soon send investors limping toward other options. “If investors feel they are getting less after-tax income, they will find other alternative investments,” said Ken Rubenstein, senior partner at the law firm Rubenstein & Rubenstein LLP, which specializes in hedge funds. If tax rates rise, as most ob-servers expect given the ballooning federal deficit, hedge funds may find themselves in a structural bind should investors become more conscious of after-tax returns. “The nature of what hedge funds do doesn't lead to a lot of tax efficiency,” said Jeffrey Mindlin, chief operating officer at Advanced Equities Asset Management Inc. Hedge funds are characterized by high portfolio turnover, which leads to lots of short-term gains taxed at ordinary income rates. But managing a portfolio to avoid short-term gains can adversely affect performance and hedge fund manager income.


Washington Post:

- A new report from a national coalition of mayors urges President Obama to adopt dozens of reforms to help curb gun violence, including steps to crack down on problems at gun shows and the creation of a federal interstate firearms trafficking unit. The "Blueprint for Federal Action on Illegal Guns," a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post, presents 40 recommendations that "would dramatically improve law enforcement's ability to keep guns out of the hands of criminals -- and, in doing so, save innocent lives." The strategies outlined by the Mayors Against Illegal Guns, a bipartisan group of about 450 mayors nationwide, focus on the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

- There was once a swagger to the scotch-swilling, insurgent-fighting Raed Sabah. He was known as Sheik Raed to his sycophants. Tribesmen who relied on his largess called him the same. So did his fighters, who joined the Americans and helped crush the insurgency in Anbar province. Sabah still likes his scotch -- Johnnie Walker Black, with Red Bull on the rocks -- but these days, as the Americans withdraw from western Iraq, he has lost his swagger. His neighbors now deride him as an American stooge; they have nicknamed his alley "The Street of the Lackeys." "The Americans left without even saying goodbye. Not one of them," Sabah said in his villa in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar, once the cradle of Iraq's insurgency. "Even when we called them, we got a message that the line had been disconnected." Nowhere is the U.S. departure from Iraq more visible than in Anbar, where the 27 bases and outposts less than a year ago have dwindled to three today. Far less money is being spent. Since November, more than two-thirds of combat troops have departed. In their wake is a blend of cynicism and bitterness, frustration and fear among many of the tribal leaders who fought with the troops against the insurgents, a tableau of emotion that may color the American legacy in a region that has stood as the U.S. military's single greatest success in the war. Pragmatism, the Americans call their departure. Desertion, their erstwhile allies answer.

AP:

- Iran's president hit back Saturday at President Barack Obama's accusation that his country had sought to hide its construction of a new nuclear site, arguing that Tehran reported the facility to the U.N. even earlier than required. The Iranian president defended his government's actions as the head of the U.N.'s nuclear monitoring agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, arrived Saturday to arrange an inspection of the uranium enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom. "The U.S. president made a big and historic mistake," Iranian state TV quoted Ahmadinejad as saying. "Later it became clear that (his) information was wrong and that we had no secrecy." Suspicion that Iran's newly revealed nuclear site was meant for military purposes was heightened by its location, at least partly inside a mountain and next to a military base. Iran has said it built the facility in such a way only to ensure continuity of its nuclear activities in case of an attack.

Reuters:

- The head of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said on Sunday that she wanted to end the "too big to fail" doctrine and shrink the shadow banking system that operates outside the reach of regulators. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, speaking to the Institute of International Finance meeting here, said a U.S. proposal to create the authority to shut down failing systemically important financial firms may need to be extended to insurers and hedge funds. "We need to end 'too big to fail' and this needs to be an overarching policy that applies to everyone," Bair said. Bair said she believed that bank holding companies with subsidiaries that are shut down by regulators also should be made to pay the price of failure by being subject to the same wind-down process. "I believe that the new regime should apply to all bank holding companies that are more than just shells and their affiliates regardless or not whether they are considered to be systemic risks," she said, adding that including only systemically important firms in the shut-down regime could reinforce the 'too big to fail' doctrine.

- If the stock market bulls are right, U.S. third-quarter corporate earnings could show revenue kicked into gear after some disappointing numbers last quarter, sustaining the rally. As the reporting period approaches, analysts said economic growth in the quarter could lift companies' sales in contrast to the previous quarter, when revenue lagged bottom-line earnings. "The key is revenue. I think (it) will surprise. It will grow from the second quarter along with GDP, and I think that's what investors are going to focus on," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston.

- A U.S.-led consortium has entered the race to buy Volvo from Ford (F), the Financial Times reported, in a challenge to China's Geely Automotive, which confirmed its interest in the money-losing Swedish carmaker last month.

- NetApp Inc's (NTAP) chief executive told Barron's in an interview that selling the data storage company might make sense at some point in the future. "This is America and everything has its price," Chief Executive Tom Georgens told the financial newspaper. "At some point, it might make sense."


Financial Times:

- Goldman Sachs(GS) stands to receive a payment of $1bn – while US taxpayers would lose $2.3bn – if embattled commercial lender CIT files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, people familiar with the matter said. The payment stems from the structure of a $3bn rescue finance package that Goldman extended to CIT on June 6 2008, about five months before the Treasury bought $2.3bn in CIT preferred shares to prop it up at the height of the crisis. The potential loss for taxpayers would be the biggest to crystalize so far from the government’s capital injection plan for banks. The agreement with Goldman states that if CIT defaults or goes bankrupt, it “would be required to pay a make-whole amount” that totals $1bn, the people familiar with the matter said. In the event of bankruptcy, Goldman would reap more than $1bn because it also holds credit insurance that would be paid off.

- Lakshmi Mittal is close to pulling out of a $20bn plan to build two large steel plants in India – the centerpiece of efforts by one of the world’s most prominent industrialists to expand in the country of his birth. Delays in persuading farmers and others to sell the land he needs for the developments in the states of Jharkand and Orissa are “unacceptable”, the chairman and main owner of the ArcelorMittal steel company told the FT. Although Mr Mittal said he was still committed to building at least one steel plant in India, abandoning his plan to have two sites producing between them about 24m tons of steel a year by around 2015 would be a big blow.

- A sweeping process of democratization is opening up the investment landscape to an unprecedented array of participants. Hitherto secretive hedge fund managers are racing to launch vehicles aimed at the smallest of retail investors, while once hidebound traditional asset managers are rolling out complex absolute return and equity long/short structures to fight for a share of potentially lucrative markets.UK broker. “They have suddenly had a shock. “Their so called high net worth clients have disappeared in many cases. They are realizing having two dozen high net worth clients is not as good as having 5,000 retail investors. The quality of retail money is better. It’s much more sticky money.” At the same time large institutional investors are increasingly planning to venture into previously niche asset classes such as infrastructure, private equity and hedge funds in a search for greater diversification and stronger returns. However, the wholesale shift is raising fears that investors are being clobbered with far higher fees, lining the pockets of the industry but potentially sharply reducing investment returns. “The hedge fund industry was dead snobby to us retail,” said Mark Dampier, head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, a large

TimesOnline:
- Iran has the know-how to produce a nuclear bomb and may already have tested a detonation system small enough to fit into the warhead of a medium-range missile, according to confidential papers. The “secret annexe” to this year’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran summarises information submitted by intelligence agencies about the country’s work on warheads, detonators and nuclear fuel enrichment. It is based partly on evidence thought to have been smuggled out of Iran by the wife of a spy recruited by German intelligence. The papers conclude that Iran already “has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device”, or atom bomb. The finding goes beyond America’s public stance and may complicate its efforts at talks in Geneva to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

Automobilwoche:

- Volkswagen AG, Europe’s biggest carmaker, expect German car sales to contract by almost 20% next year after the German “cash-for-clunkers” program expired, citing an interview with Christian Klingler, sales chief for the VW brand.


Yonhap News:

- North Korea has up to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, citing a document submitted by South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense to a ruling party lawmaker. The communist nation can also independently produce 13 kinds of biological weapons, including anthrax, cholera and typhus, according to the report.


Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (TGT), (JNJ), (DIS), (BTU), (AVII) and (AGO).


Citigroup:

- Upgraded (PNW) to Buy, target $35, added to Top Picks Live List.

- Reiterated Buy on (DOW), target $29.

- Reiterated Buy on (NLC), target $24, added to Top Picks Live List.

- Upgraded (CVG) to Buy, target $12.

- Reiterated Buy on (NVDA), target $19.


Merrill Lynch:

- Raised Toshiba to Buy.


Night Trading
Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on avg.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 120.50 -4.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.33%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.


Morning Preview
BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (RPM)/.44

- (MOS)/.34

- (RBN)/.20

- (AGP)/.56


Upcoming Splits

- (DEER) 2-for-1


Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

- ISM Non-Manufacturing for September is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 448.4 in August.


Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Dudley speaking, JMP Securities Healthcare Conference and the (CRM) Investor Event
could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.