BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs and Financial longs. I covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 3.93% and is high at 23.23. The ISE Sentiment Index is slightly above average at 162.0 and the total put/call is around average at .79. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running slightly above average most of the day, hitting 1.30 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.05. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.66% today to 72.33 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.16% to 102.37 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is down 1 basis point to 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 443 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is +10.58% to 37.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is down 1 basis point to 12 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up 7 basis points to 1.86%, which is down 81 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .06%, which is up 1 basis point today.Small-cap growth shares are substantially outperforming the broad market today.HMO, Hospital, Computer Service, Disk Drive and Semi shares are especially strong, jumping 2.25%+ today.The bears were unable to gain any traction this morning despite more hawkish Fed commentary and weakness in commodities.So far, technical action over the last couple of days indicates a healthy consolidation of recent gains before another push higher commences.Nikkei futures indicate an +50 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +9 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on diminishing economic fear, short-covering, investment manager performance anxiety and less financial sector pessimism.
- Derivatives Lobby Links With New Democrats to Blunt Obama Plan. As President Barack Obama vowed in a Sept. 14 speech in New York’s Federal Hall to correct “reckless behavior and unchecked excess” on Wall Street, Mike McMahon and Barney Frank sat in the audience discussing how to ease proposed rules for the $592 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market. Side by side at 26 Wall St., across from the New York Stock Exchange, freshman congressman McMahon told House Financial Services Committee Chairman Frank he was worried that Obama’s derivatives plan, released in August, would penalize a wide swath of U.S. corporations and could push jobs in his home district overseas, McMahon said in an interview. “It’s not just the farmers, and it’s not just the Wall Street guys,” said McMahon, a member of the New Democrat Coalition, a group of 68 self-described pro-growth Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. “It’s across the nation. American industry uses these products for a very useful purpose, which keeps down prices and makes consumer products cheaper.”
- Wheat prices fell for the first time this week after the U.S. government said domestic inventories will reach a nine-year high by the end of May. Stockpiles will increase to 864 million bushels, up 16 percent from a September estimate, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. The average outlook of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was 804 million bushels. World inventories are forecast to rise 12 percent to 186.7 million metric tons from a year earlier, the most since 2002. “U.S. wheat supplies are historically burdensome,” said Greg Grow, the director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services in Chicago.
- Copper prices fell the most in a week as the dollar strengthened on signals that the U.S. Federal Reserve is ready to tighten credit once the economy improves. Inventories monitored by the LME fell to 346,600 tons, paring this week’s gain, the 13th straight increase. The world copper output surplus will rise next year from 2009 as demand slows, the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group said yesterday. The gap between output and use will widen to 539,000 tons from an estimated 368,000 tons in 2009.
- Manufacturers will tell Congress today that a lack of available credit threatens to stifle a U.S. recovery, as the Obama administration considers a proposal for loan guarantees. “As we see business increase, companies are having difficulty tapping into credit lines,” Rob Kiener, director of membership for the Precision Machined Products Association, which represents more than 500 factory owners, said in an interview. “Without credit, it becomes very, very difficult to compete.” A survey by a related group, the Precision Metalforming Association, found that two-thirds of the companies say that credit is a problem, with a third of respondents calling the issue a “serious” difficulty.
- More US stocks are trading at 52-week highs than at any time since June 2007, a sign to some investors that the steepest rally in 70 years may be sustained.“When I see new highs leading the market, it bodes well,” said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan.“It wouldn’t surprise me to see a sharp rally in the next quarter.The market is acting like it’s going to take out the recent highs.”
- Google Inc.’s(GOOG) YouTube, the video Web site that’s working to become profitable, said it is recording more than 1 billion views a day. YouTube’s bandwidth has increased along with the quality of videos shown on the site, Chad Hurley, the site’s chief executive officer, said today in a blog posting. Google acquired the San Bruno, California-based company three years ago for $1.65 billion. Demand for longer, full-length content means YouTube is showing more movies and TV shows, and is focusing on improving quality and expanding tools for content partners and advertisers, Hurley said. More users who post videos are also looking to turn their “hobby into a real business,” he said. Google’s sites accounted for more than 10 billion videos viewed in the U.S. in August, 40 percent of the market, according to research firm ComScore Inc. Microsoft Corp., its closest competitor, showed 546.5 million.
- A pickup in global trade will have to last some time before the container-shipping industry can overcome the burdens it took on during boom times. Since the second half of 2008, the shipping industry has experienced a spectacular downturn as charter rates collapsed alongside the rest of the global economy. Container-shipping rates even dropped to zero in January on the Asia-to-Europe route as brokers waived fees and charged only for fuel costs. Rates have risen for other kinds of shipping, such as tankers, but are expected to stay depressed for container-shipping companies for at least the next year. That crimps the companies' ability to make payments on ships they ordered when shipping rates were high. At the same time, the value of the ships they already own has fallen. Both factors make it harder for companies such as CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd AG to keep debt covenants with banks.
- As the U.S. economy rebounds from a long-running recession, a weekly leading index of future growth released on Friday showed the annualized growth rate
hitting a record high. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week to Oct. 2 from 127.1 the prior week. The index's yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 26.1 percent in the latest reading, from a revised 25.0 percent