Friday, October 09, 2009

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by HMO, Hospital and Technology Shares

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Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminishing Economic Fear, Short-Covering, Investment Manager Performance Angst

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs and Financial longs. I covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 3.93% and is high at 23.23. The ISE Sentiment Index is slightly above average at 162.0 and the total put/call is around average at .79. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running slightly above average most of the day, hitting 1.30 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.05. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.66% today to 72.33 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.16% to 102.37 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is down 1 basis point to 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 443 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is +10.58% to 37.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is down 1 basis point to 12 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up 7 basis points to 1.86%, which is down 81 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .06%, which is up 1 basis point today. Small-cap growth shares are substantially outperforming the broad market today. HMO, Hospital, Computer Service, Disk Drive and Semi shares are especially strong, jumping 2.25%+ today. The bears were unable to gain any traction this morning despite more hawkish Fed commentary and weakness in commodities. So far, technical action over the last couple of days indicates a healthy consolidation of recent gains before another push higher commences. Nikkei futures indicate an +50 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +9 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on diminishing economic fear, short-covering, investment manager performance anxiety and less financial sector pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- The US dollar rose against the yen and the euro and government bonds fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the bank will tighten monetary policy once the economy improves. Commodities slipped.

- The five Norwegian politicians who awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to Barack Obama faced criticism for selecting the U.S. president before he converts promises of nuclear disarmament, Middle East peace or better East-West relations into reality. While the Nobel committee has been faulted in the past for making political statements with its choice of laureates, the Obama award marked the first time it honored a head of state for laying out a vision rather than for practical accomplishments. The honor is a “premature canonization,” said Fred Greenstein, a historian at Princeton University. “It seems to me that it is an embarrassment for the Nobel process.”

- Derivatives Lobby Links With New Democrats to Blunt Obama Plan. As President Barack Obama vowed in a Sept. 14 speech in New York’s Federal Hall to correct “reckless behavior and unchecked excess” on Wall Street, Mike McMahon and Barney Frank sat in the audience discussing how to ease proposed rules for the $592 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market. Side by side at 26 Wall St., across from the New York Stock Exchange, freshman congressman McMahon told House Financial Services Committee Chairman Frank he was worried that Obama’s derivatives plan, released in August, would penalize a wide swath of U.S. corporations and could push jobs in his home district overseas, McMahon said in an interview. “It’s not just the farmers, and it’s not just the Wall Street guys,” said McMahon, a member of the New Democrat Coalition, a group of 68 self-described pro-growth Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. “It’s across the nation. American industry uses these products for a very useful purpose, which keeps down prices and makes consumer products cheaper.”

- Commodity assets under management rose by $15 billion to $224 billion in the third quarter and will likely keep expanding, Barclays Capital said. About $12 billion of the increase was new money.

- Wheat prices fell for the first time this week after the U.S. government said domestic inventories will reach a nine-year high by the end of May. Stockpiles will increase to 864 million bushels, up 16 percent from a September estimate, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. The average outlook of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was 804 million bushels. World inventories are forecast to rise 12 percent to 186.7 million metric tons from a year earlier, the most since 2002. “U.S. wheat supplies are historically burdensome,” said Greg Grow, the director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services in Chicago.

- Copper prices fell the most in a week as the dollar strengthened on signals that the U.S. Federal Reserve is ready to tighten credit once the economy improves. Inventories monitored by the LME fell to 346,600 tons, paring this week’s gain, the 13th straight increase. The world copper output surplus will rise next year from 2009 as demand slows, the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group said yesterday. The gap between output and use will widen to 539,000 tons from an estimated 368,000 tons in 2009.

- Manufacturers will tell Congress today that a lack of available credit threatens to stifle a U.S. recovery, as the Obama administration considers a proposal for loan guarantees. “As we see business increase, companies are having difficulty tapping into credit lines,” Rob Kiener, director of membership for the Precision Machined Products Association, which represents more than 500 factory owners, said in an interview. “Without credit, it becomes very, very difficult to compete.” A survey by a related group, the Precision Metalforming Association, found that two-thirds of the companies say that credit is a problem, with a third of respondents calling the issue a “serious” difficulty.

- The U.S. may not agree to cut greenhouse-gas emissions in a new treaty this year because there is no domestic law setting a framework, the country’s top negotiator said at United Nations climate talks in Bangkok. Without legislation advancing in Congress, it will be difficult for the world’s biggest economy to pledge an emissions target for itself, U.S. negotiator Jonathan Pershing told reporters today as negotiations wound up in the Thai capital. “It will be extraordinarily difficult for the U.S. to commit to a specific number in the absence of action from Congress,” Pershing said. “The question is open as to how much we can do. It’s not really possible to answer.”

- Citigroup Inc., under pressure from the Obama administration to curb compensation, agreed to sell its Phibro LLC energy-trading business to avert a showdown over a potential $100 million payout to the chief of the unit. Oil producer Occidental Petroleum Corp., based in Los Angeles, will pay “net asset value” for the unit, the companies said today. Occidental’s net investment in Phibro will be about $250 million. The sale won’t be material to Citigroup earnings, the New York-based bank said.

- More US stocks are trading at 52-week highs than at any time since June 2007, a sign to some investors that the steepest rally in 70 years may be sustained. “When I see new highs leading the market, it bodes well,” said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan. “It wouldn’t surprise me to see a sharp rally in the next quarter. The market is acting like it’s going to take out the recent highs.”

- Google Inc.’s(GOOG) YouTube, the video Web site that’s working to become profitable, said it is recording more than 1 billion views a day. YouTube’s bandwidth has increased along with the quality of videos shown on the site, Chad Hurley, the site’s chief executive officer, said today in a blog posting. Google acquired the San Bruno, California-based company three years ago for $1.65 billion. Demand for longer, full-length content means YouTube is showing more movies and TV shows, and is focusing on improving quality and expanding tools for content partners and advertisers, Hurley said. More users who post videos are also looking to turn their “hobby into a real business,” he said. Google’s sites accounted for more than 10 billion videos viewed in the U.S. in August, 40 percent of the market, according to research firm ComScore Inc. Microsoft Corp., its closest competitor, showed 546.5 million.

- General Motors Co. agreed to sell its Hummer sport-utility vehicle brand to China’s Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Co. and another investor for an undisclosed price.


Wall Street Journal:

- A pickup in global trade will have to last some time before the container-shipping industry can overcome the burdens it took on during boom times. Since the second half of 2008, the shipping industry has experienced a spectacular downturn as charter rates collapsed alongside the rest of the global economy. Container-shipping rates even dropped to zero in January on the Asia-to-Europe route as brokers waived fees and charged only for fuel costs. Rates have risen for other kinds of shipping, such as tankers, but are expected to stay depressed for container-shipping companies for at least the next year. That crimps the companies' ability to make payments on ships they ordered when shipping rates were high. At the same time, the value of the ships they already own has fallen. Both factors make it harder for companies such as CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd AG to keep debt covenants with banks.

- Facing leadership uncertainty, the fallout from a tax evasion scandal involving its parent company and branch management shake-ups, UBS Wealth Management U.S. took a hit in terms of attrition last month. The unit of Swiss bank UBS AG (UBS) lost roughly 90 brokers and more than half of them went to other wirehouses, signaling they didn't leave out of a desire to go independent or move to a smaller firm, according to data collected by the research firm Discovery Database.

- Federal health officials said 76 children have died from the H1N1 flu since the virus was discovered in April, which appears to be a higher rate than pediatric deaths caused by the seasonal flu.

- Federal investigators have questioned two men whose photographs were shown to a Muslim religious leader along with a picture of an Afghan immigrant accused of plotting a bomb attack in New York City. Adis Medunjanin, a 24-year-old Bosnian immigrant, met voluntarily with investigators for 14 hours, said Robert Gottlieb, a New York lawyer representing him. Zarein Ahmedzay, a 24-year-old New York City cab driver, also was interviewed by the FBI, said his brother, Nazir Ahmedzay.


CNBC:

- A year after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac teetered, industry executives and Washington policy makers are worrying that another government mortgage giant could be the next housing domino. Problems at the Federal Housing Administration, which guarantees mortgages with low down payments, are becoming so acute that some experts warn the agency might need a federal bailout.


Fox News:

- The Congressional panel that oversees the government’s financial bailout plan questioned the effectiveness of the Obama Administration’s key foreclosure prevention program -- one day after the Treasury Department said the program reached a major benchmark ahead of schedule. In a report released Friday, the Congressional Oversight Panel of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program [TARP] said it was concerned about the scope, scale and “permanence” of the administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program [HAMP]:


LA Times:

- Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley said today that all the medical marijuana dispensaries in the county are operating illegally, and that "they are going to be prosecuted." There are hundreds of dispensaries throughout the county, including as many as 800 in the city of Los Angeles, according to the city attorney's office. They operate under a 1996 voter initiative that allowed marijuana to be used for medicinal purposes, and a subsequent state law that provided for collective cultivation. Based on a state Supreme Court decision last year, Cooley and City Attorney Carmen Trutanich have concluded that over-the-counter sales are illegal. Most if not all of the dispensaries in the state operate on that basis.


Rassmussen:

- Most members of the Senate Finance Committee were relieved this week to find that their health care reform plan will cost under $900 billion over the next 10 years and is actually projected to bring the federal deficit down by $81 billion. But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that most voters continue to favor middle class tax cuts over spending more money for health care reform. Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters say new spending for health care reform is more important. But 54% rate middle class tax cuts as the priority over more health care spending.

- Just 30% of U.S. voters now think President Obama is governing in a bipartisan fashion, down 12 points from late January and the lowest such finding of his presidency. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 52% believe the president is governing like a partisan Democrat.


Washington Times:

- The Democratic chairmen of several key committees overseeing war policy, including the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, say they back the military's request for a troop buildup in Afghanistan - despite House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's stance that Congress will not support deploying more U.S. forces. At a White House meeting this week, participants said about half of the chairmen from the dozen House and Senate panels involved in military issues told President Obama that they supported ordering more troops to Afghanistan.


USAToday:

- Across the USA, states are falling short of their goals to increase the use of renewable energy as Congress weighs a national renewable-energy standard. Among the states struggling with the renewable-energy targets they set for themselves:


Reuters:

- As the U.S. economy rebounds from a long-running recession, a weekly leading index of future growth released on Friday showed the annualized growth rate

hitting a record high. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based

independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week to Oct. 2 from 127.1 the prior week. The index's yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 26.1 percent in the latest reading, from a revised 25.0 percent

the prior week. "With WLI (Weekly Leading Index) growth rocketing to a new

record high, the economic recovery will prove to be far more resilient in coming months than most believe possible," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director. "The risk of a double dip (recession) is very low," Achuthan added.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Mid-Cap Value (+.04%)

Sector Underperformers:
Gold (-1.73%), Oil Service (-1.55%) and Coal (-1.30%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
AIZ, OIS, LIHR, INFY, ROST, LEAP, CYOU, SOHU, CMN and MR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) ACOR 2) NBL 3) OXY 4) XTO 5) WMB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-Cap Growth (+.53%)

Sector Outperformers:
HMOs (+3.94%), Hospitals (+3.92%) and Semis (+2.59%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
RMBS, IRE, SWIR, SBNY, NSM, ARD, IOC, IBM, DELL, DLLR, PLCE, CVX, MBT, IFLO, CAAS, SVNT, CHNG, SKBI, CTFO, RVBD, LRCX, TSRA, RIMM, NTAP, ROVI, CREE, BIDU, CERN, AMSC, GOL, LAD, TK, RBC, NGT, NCR and GSH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) ACOR 2) RVBD 3) AMSC 4) RMBS 5) CREE

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