BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Biotech longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is falling -.03% and is very high at 30.68. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 104.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.04. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 2.07 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.11. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.11% today to 68.83 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.98% to 105.90 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 24 basis points. The TED spread is now down 440 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +1.46% to 34.69 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +2 basis points to 2.04%, which is down 61 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is unch. today.Cyclicals are outperforming today, rising +1.0%.However, given today’s positive economic data and last week’s swoon, today’s muted advance on poor breadth is a bit disappointing.A number of sectors are lower on the day, as well.Small-caps are underperforming again.CDS indices are not confirming today’s equity move higher.In my opinion, the recent stock pullback is mostly due to technical factors.While more mixed-to-negative action is likely in the near-term, I do not believe this is the end of the recent advance and I expect stocks to finish the year on a positive note.Nikkei futures indicate an +8 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -48 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and less economic pessimism.
- Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded faster than anticipated in October, easing concern the economic recovery will be cut short once government aid wanes. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.7, a three-year high and exceeding every estimate of the 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, data from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed today. Other reports indicated housing kept gaining after its worst recession since the 1930s. “The economic outlook is brightening,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Manufacturing is in the driving seat at this stage of the recovery. Housing has turned the corner.”
- The chairwoman of the National Mediation Board has sharply criticized the federal agency's proposal to change a decades-old election rule that would make it easier for airline and railway employees to unionize, exposing a sharp rift at the agency's three-person board. In a letter sent to more than a dozen Republican senators Monday, NMB Chairwoman Elizabeth Dougherty said the process by which the proposal was drafted by her two colleagues is "flawed," and she questioned whether the agency had the authority to make such a rule change. The NMB sent a proposed change to the Federal Register on Thursday that would lower the bar for unionizing at airlines and railroad companies. It is expected to be published in the Federal Register Monday or Tuesday and be subject to a 60-day comment period before it could be implemented. Organized labor has been pushing for the change, but U.S. airlines oppose it -- including Delta Air Lines Inc. and Continental Airlines Inc., which are both preparing for large unionization votes. That sets the stage for a battle that could spill into Congress or the courts.
- A consortium led by Italian energy giant Eni SpA (E) Monday signed an initial 20-year agreement with Iraq to develop the giant Zubair oilfield in southern Iraq, an Iraqi oil ministry official said. Under the terms of the deal, Eni, Italy's biggest energy company by market value, and its partners Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Korea Gas Corp. (036460.SE) of South Korea will be paid $2 for each extra barrel of oil it extracts on top of current production at the field, but will be liable for a 35% tax on its profits. Eni has said the development of the field would require investments of about $10 billion in the first six years to raise output from the field to 1.125 million barrels a day from 195,000 barrels of oil a day now. However, Iraq's Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani, who was present at the signing, said Monday the field, in total and along the duration of the contract, would require an investment of $20 billion.
- Walmart(WMT) has stepped up efforts to mobilize local political support for new store openings in US cities and urban areas that were last month identified as a growth priority for the retailer by Mike Duke, its chief executive. In addition to a renewed drive to open a second Supercenter store in Chicago, the retailer is also raising its political profile in Philadelphia and continuing to cultivate the ground for a potential move into New York City. Walmart has long faced political resistance to its plans in the largest US cities, largely orchestrated by the UFCW grocery workers’ union and its political allies. Eduardo Castro Wright, chief executive of Walmart’s US stores, has estimated that urban markets where the retailer is under-represented could yield billions of dollars of new sales. “We already have in our real estate program a robust plan to go after those,” he told analysts in October. The retailer has only one store inside Chicago’s city limits and none in New York or Boston. The focus on urban markets comes at a time when Walmart’s national reputation has improved, partly as a result of its strong performance during the recession. Leslie Dach, head of corporate communications, said last month that Walmart’s role in serving low-income customers during the recession had won the retailer “new respect from politicians, from economists and from the media”. The retailer’s embrace of environmental sustainability over the past four years has also improved its ethical reputation, moving up Covalence’s ethical rating of 27 global retailers from bottom in 2004 to second currently, behind Marks and Spencer. Saint Consulting, a group specializing in land-use politics, reported in January this year a drop in the number of people saying that they would oppose the opening of a new Walmart store – at 56 per cent, down from 68 per cent two years ago.