- China should withdraw its monetary stimulus to correct “imbalances” in the economy and avoid bad loans from surging among the nation’s banks, said Aberdeen Asset Management Co., which manages $40 billion in Asian equities. “The government is stimulating the economy through the banks,” Nicholas Yeo, head of Hong Kong and China equities, said in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. “When the government exits its stimulus program, you may see more nonperforming loans. It may take three to five years. I think they should withdraw stimulus but they won’t because they need to keep the economy going.” The World Bank said yesterday China’s policy makers must avert stock and property market bubbles after lending swelled to a record $1.27 trillion this year. Aberdeen has a “strong underweight” in mainland stocks, Hong-Kong based Yeo said. “I’m uncomfortable with state-owned enterprises like the banks,” he said.
- Passengers on Boston subways, the oldest public transit system in the U.S., and regional commuter trains face the potential for serious injury because the state agency in charge lacks funds for repairs, a report today said. The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, known as the T, operates “under a mountain of red ink,” with 51 separate safety projects unfunded, the report said. Those fixes, estimated at $543 million, are needed for problems that “demonstrate imminent danger to life or limb of passengers and/or employees,” the report said. In some places, track fasteners are corroding and the tracks are shifting out of alignment with “the possibility of train derailment,” said the report, written by a panel led by David F. D’Alessandro, former chief executive of John Hancock Financial Services. Along one stretch of the subway’s Red Line in Cambridge, water leaks damaged a system of slabs and disks used to absorb train vibrations. It requires replacement to prevent derailment, the report said. “Yes, people could die,” said Charles Chieppo, a Boston consultant not involved in the report who served on a state panel that studied overhauling MBTA funding in 2000.
- Many hedge funds have bounced back from a rough 2008 and, for the most part, managers are projected to pay employees as if that troubled year never happened. According to a report conducted by executive search firm Glocap Search LLC, some portions of which were reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires, pay for hedge-fund employees who survived last year's hedge-fund culling is expected to rise slightly over compensation in 2008. Pay still remains lower than in 2007, when the average hedge fund was up double digits. "Our numbers show that [2009] is being treated in isolation," said Adam Zoia, chief executive of Glocap and head of the company's hedge-fund practice. Zoia said the estimates for 2009 are through Oct. 1, and will be correct as long as there's no "material" change in hedge-fund performance between now and the end of the year. The report is based on information gathered by Glocap recruiters, fund managers and industry professionals. The report, which breaks down hedge-fund firms by their 2009 performance, shows that total average compensation this year at funds that have performed well relative to their industry peers are projected to be about 2% higher than in 2008. More importantly, employees at those funds are expected to make only about 5.3% less in 2009 than they made in 2007, not that big a disparity considering the average hedge fund's performance was down about 20% last year and many other funds were closed. "What happened last year was the owners of the hedge funds - the partners - took a large paycut so employees would not have to take as large a paycut," Zoia said.
- Less than a fortnight ago, Christophe de Margerie, the chief executive of Total, beseeched politicians to discuss energy security, not only the environment, at the Copenhagen climate-change summit in December. One of the industry’s most plain-spoken ambassadors, he said: “Don’t go to Copenhagen only with your concern about the environment. We also have a concern over energy access. If you take only one [concern with you], we are dead and we don’t want to die.” His linking of the two issues has been underscored by the findings of the International Energy Agency, the rich countries’ watchdog. In an unauthorized draft of the World Energy Outlook, its annual report, it concludes that the world’s dependence on natural gas would drop dramatically if environmental policies were enacted to limit carbon emissions. The IEA would not comment on the findings before the report’s launch next Tuesday. If environmental policies are put in place to stabilize greenhouse gases at levels that scientists believe will give the world a good chance of avoiding a sharp rise in temperatures, they will have a significant effect on gas demand, the IEA believes. Increases in energy efficiency and faster growth in renewables such as windpower and nuclear energy would reduce gas consumption by 5 per cent by 2015 and 17 per cent by 2030 compared with the business-as-usual scenario. Russia holds a quarter of the world’s gas reserves, but before 2015 no significant increases are expected from any regions except for the Yamal peninsula. In the US, the situation is slightly different, says the IEA, largely because of its large reserves of natural gas trapped in shale rocks. New technology that allows companies to break the rock and drill horizontally has opened up vast new areas of supply, helping to nearly eradicate the need for liquefied natural gas imports from abroad. “The looming glut in gas-export capacity essentially results from factors on the supply and demand sides: an ongoing surge in LNG capacity coming on line and a dramatic improvement in the prospects for unconventional production in North America . . . and the unexpected slump in demand,” the IEA said. “In the short term at least, trade will not grow as quickly as most investors in new LNG and pipeline capacity originally expected.” North America has 12 LNG terminals with a capacity of 145bcm a year and five more under construction, plus one being extended. This will bring its import capacity to 214bcm.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (ADP), target $45.
Night Trading Asian Indices are -1.25% to unch. on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 116.50 -4.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures -.40%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.
- Preliminary 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +6.5% versus a +6.6% gain in 2Q.
- Preliminary 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to fall -4.2% versus a -5.9% decline in 2Q.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 522K versus 530K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 5750K versus 5797K prior.
Upcoming Splits - None of Note
Other Potential Market Movers - The BoE rate decision, ECB rate decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, ICSC retail monthly same-store-sales, (ATHR) analyst day, (SCHW) business update, (EHTH) analyst day, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Business/Government Services Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrial Conference, Keefe Bruyette Woods Brokerage & Market Structure Conference and the Lazard Tech/Media Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and retail shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Medical longs, Retail longs and Technology longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling -5.59% and is very high at 27.21. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 111.0 and the total put/call is around average at .78. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.25 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.04. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.48% today to 67.33 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -3.76% to 104.03 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 23 basis points. The TED spread is now down 441 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -1.04% to 35.75 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +7 basis points to 2.12%, which is down 53 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is unch. today.The market’s reaction to today’s news is disappointing.Economically sensitive stocks are substantially underperforming. (XLF) has been heavy since its morning high. Bank, Education, Hospital, Disk Drive, Oil Service, Alt Energy and REIT shares are especially weak falling -1.0%+. On the positive side, a number of sectors are posting meaningful gains.Homebuilding, HMO, Steel and Paper stocks are surging 2%+.A number of market leaders are substantially outperforming, as well.Today’s overall action likely indicates more mixed-to-negative broad market performance near-term.Nikkei futures indicate an +50 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -19 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, rising long-term rates, rising energy prices and financial sector pessimism.