Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value (+.52%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -2.26% 2) Restaurants -1.66% 3) REITs -1.65%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • LUV, TGA, GIII, HANS, DECK, DORM, NFLX, RP, CISG, ARII, CEPH, PAAS, VECO, JOSB, JRCC, GOLD, UNFI, ASIA, CTRP, GDOT, KFN, VLKPY, PUDA, SWC and POWL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XLK 2) CIEN 3) KSS 4) FO 5) LOW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PSA 2) V 3) HAL 4) MA 5) ETR

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (+.11%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +1.90% 2) Hospitals +1.29% 3) Banks +1.09%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AVID, OREX, AVAV, GNTX and RDWR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) OREX 2) VVUS 3) JBLU 4) ARNA 5) SLE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) OCII 2) COST 3) AVGO 4) CQB 5) HHS

Wednesday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • Mortgage-Bond Yields That Guide Home Loan Rates Soar to Highest Since June. Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities that guide home-loan rates jumped to their highest levels in almost six months, suggesting borrowing costs will continue to climb from record lows. Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds rose to 4.04 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yields, whose changes typically create similar movements in loan rates, have increased from 3.27 percent on Nov. 4.
  • Greenlight's Einhorn Says Global Sovereign Debt Crisis Looms. David Einhorn, president of hedge- fund operator Greenlight Capital Inc., said the global economy will face a sovereign debt crisis after governments around the world increased spending to deal with the fallout from the financial crisis. “We managed to transfer a lot of the problems from the private sector to the public sector,” Einhorn said in an interview with the Charlie Rose television show. “It’s created a very, very large budget deficit. And it’s created a monetary policy that’s extremely easy. It is eventually going to come to a tough spot.” The U.S. reported on Oct. 15 its second-largest annual budget deficit, $1.29 trillion, for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. The Federal Reserve’s decision to buy an additional $600 billion in Treasuries to lower borrowing costs and stimulate the economy will probably result in rising prices of basic goods for consumers and businesses, curtailing economic growth, according to Einhorn. “It’ll be counterproductive,” Einhorn said. “The goal of quantitative easing right now is to raise the inflation rate. If you do raise the price of clothing, it effectively lowers everybody’s standard of living and gives them less money to buy other things.”
  • Bank Swaps Led by Citigroup(C) Drop Below Europe. U.S. bank bonds are about the safest on record relative to debt from European financial institutions as a growing economy allows Citigroup Inc. to wean itself off government support and a fiscal crisis roils Europe. The average cost of protecting the notes of the six biggest U.S. banks including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co. against default fell to 12.16 basis points below the Markit iTraxx Financial Index of 25 European banks and insurers. Credit- default swaps on U.S. banks were 341 basis points higher than their European counterparts at the height of the credit crisis in October 2008.
  • OPEC to Maintain Production Quotas as Crude Exceeds $90: Energy Markets. Oil’s rally to a more-than-two-year high is unlikely to coax OPEC into raising production quotas at this week’s meeting in Ecuador, as member nations consider the global recovery strong enough to withstand price gains. Iran, Venezuela and Libya said this month they would accept prices as high as $100, while OPEC Secretary- General Abdalla El-Badri said the group won’t necessarily boost production unless there’s a need for more oil. Prices will return to $100 a barrel for the first time in two years during 2011, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
  • Bernanke's 21-Month U-Turn Takes 60 Minutes: Commentary by Caroline Baum. He probably wishes he hadn’t said it, the part about the Federal Reserve not printing money and his 100 percent confidence in his ability to raise interest rates at the appropriate time to prevent an acceleration of inflation. But he did. The Fed does (print money). And nothing is 100 percent certain in this world, except death and taxes. After Sunday’s interview, we no longer have to worry about the Fed’s commitment to doing whatever it takes to promote a self-sustaining recovery. The real concern is policy makers won’t know when they’ve done enough. If history is any guide, we can be almost 100 percent certain that they won’t.
  • China Asks Flour Makers to Refrain From Price Hikes. China has asked some of the country’s biggest flour producers to refrain from raising prices until March, when the National People’s Congress holds annual meetings, the Beijing Times reported today, without citing anyone.
  • MBIA Sues Morgan Stanley(MS) Over Mortgage-Backed Debt. MBIA Insurance Corp. sued Morgan Stanley over allegations the securities firm “fraudulently induced” the insurer to issue policies covering $223.2 million in mortgage-backed securities. The bond-insuring unit of MBIA Inc. claims Morgan Stanley and one of its units failed to disclose that most of the 5,000 underlying loans didn’t meet the underwriting guidelines of the firm or the originators, according to a complaint filed yesterday in New York state court in White Plains. “A vast number of the mortgage loans were made to borrowers who could not reasonably have been expected to repay their mortgage debt,” MBIA’s attorneys alleged in the complaint.
  • Italy Budget Adds Political Risk to Debt Woes for Berlusconi: Euro Credit. Italy’s passage of a 2011 budget plan paves the way for a confidence vote that will decide Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s political fate and complicate passage of more deficit cuts called for by the European Union. “It’s a problem if Italy really does become ungovernerable, or if Berlusconi is clinging on for dear life,” said Marc Ostwald, a fixed-income strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London.
  • Texas Leaders Demand Spending Cuts Topping $500 Million in Current Year. Texas Governor Rick Perry and two other state leaders directed agencies to curb spending by as much as $750 million over the next nine months, citing “insufficient revenue” to cover costs. The 2.5 percent reduction is aimed at producing savings of $500 million to $750 million, said Mike Walz, a spokesman for Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, who signed a letter to state officials with Perry and House Speaker Joe Straus. State revenue receipts for the year ended Aug. 31 came in $2 billion below estimates, they noted in the letter, which was dated yesterday. “Reduced spending in the current fiscal year puts state government in a better position to prepare for the budget reductions that will be necessary to balance the budget,” Perry, Dewhurst and Straus, all Republicans, said in the letter.
  • BlackRock(BLK) May Lose Massachusetts Pension Assets Because Firm Not 'Focused'. BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, is set to lose assets it oversees for the $42.9 billion Massachusetts state pension fund because of concern that the firm isn’t adequately focused on some fixed-income markets.
  • Texas Instruments(TXN) Fourth-Quarter Profit, Sales Forecasts Match Estimates. Texas Instruments Inc., the second- largest U.S. chipmaker, narrowed its fourth-quarter profit and sales forecasts. The midpoints of the ranges are in line with analysts’ projections.
  • Wind-Power Producer NextEra Replaces California Turbines to end Bird Suit. NextEra Energy Resources LLC, the largest U.S. producer of wind power, agreed to replace thousands of outdated turbines in California, ending a five-year legal battle with environmental groups that claimed the spinning blades are killing endangered birds.
  • U.S. Treasury Sets Record for Debt Sales at $2.116 Trillion. The U.S. Treasury set a record for borrowing in a calendar year after selling $32 billion of three- year securities to push its total note and bond sales to $2.116 trillion amid all-time high demand for the debt.
  • Japan's Machinery Orders Decline for Second Month. Japanese machinery orders fell for a second month in October because of declining demand from the service sector, adding to signs that the nation’s export-led recovery is stalling.
  • Kerry Says Congress Is 'Impatient,' U.S. May Take Action on Yuan Next Year. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry said the U.S. Congress is “impatient” with the artificially low value of China’s yuan and may take action next year. The Massachusetts Democrat, speaking in Washington about U.S.-China relations, also said that if the Group of 20 nations isn’t able to address currency values, the U.S. should find another way to deal with the issue. “The United States Congress is getting increasingly impatient and in the next session may take matters into its own hands,” Kerry said, noting that the value of the yuan contributes to the U.S. trade deficit. “If the G-20 can’t deal with this problem, then we ought to look at other multilateral tools, ones with teeth, that can fix this.”
  • Fortune Brands(FO) May Spin Off Golf, Home and Security Businesses, WSJ Says. Fortune Brands Inc., the maker of Jim Beam bourbon and Titleist golf balls, may split into as many as three separate businesses, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. The home and security unit could be spun off to shareholders and the same may be done for the golf division while Fortune Brands would continue as a publicly traded liquor company, the Journal reported yesterday, citing people briefed on the plan. An announcement may come as soon as today, it said.

Wall Street Journal:
  • Fannie, Freddie Pressed on Mortgages. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in talks with Obama administration officials to join fledgling government programs aimed at reducing loan balances of mortgages where borrowers owe more than their homes are worth, according to people familiar with the situation. An agreement with the two government-owned mortgage giants to write down so-called underwater loans could reduce the threat to the U.S. housing market from the glut of homeowners believed at risk of default should their personal finances or home prices worsen. A deal would deepen losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which already have cost taxpayers about $134 billion.
  • Goldman Sachs Hires Lures Big New York Prosecutor In House. Goldman Sachs(GS) is hiring David Markowitz of New York Attorney General's office for its litigation and regulatory proceedings group. Markowitz joined the attorney general's office in 2008 from the SEC, where he worked eight years.
  • Canadian Finance Minister Says European Response to Crisis Still Insufficient. European nations haven’t yet managed to get ahead of the financial crisis that’s rocking the region, said Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. “It’s important… to get ahead of the markets rather than play catch-up,” said Mr. Flaherty. “I think they have to demonstrate to the markets that they can fund adequately to restore confidence by the markets in the sovereigns and in the banks.” Mr. Flaherty’s comments come as global investors fret that other European nations — particularly Portugal and Spain — may also fall prey to fears that they could default on debt, spurring a full-fledged banking crisis. His sentiments echo concerns aired Tuesday by International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who said European nations need to come up with a comprehensive fix for their problems, rather than the slow, ad hoc response they’ve shown thus far.
  • Sale of New Silver Coin Delayed. The U.S. Mint said it is delaying the sale of 2010 "America the Beautiful" five-ounce silver coins due to concerns about the high prices and premiums that were to be charged for the bullion coins by its network of authorized purchasers.
  • New Players, Ties Surface in Trading Probe. Federal authorities have failed in two attempts to enlist the help of individuals to gather evidence against Steven Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors LP as part of a wide insider-trading investigation.
  • For New MBA Grads, Jobs Still Tough to Find.
  • Unions Want Limits on Firms' Use of Contractors. Unions are stepping up a campaign to get the Obama administration to crack down on companies that treat workers as independent contractors instead of employees—a practice that effectively puts tens of thousands of workers out of reach of labor organizers.
Business Insider:
NY Times:
Forbes:
  • The Economic Incompetence of the Political Class. The sovereign debt crisis now threatening Europe, as well as major American states and cities, discloses the sheer incompetence of a political class that has over-promised, under-delivered and squandered vast amounts of their citizens' wealth.
mocoNews.net:
  • CNBC Brings Its 'Real-Time' Data To The iPad - Paid Products Coming Soon. As its rivals look to buttress their existing “real-time” data businesses with separate digital products, CNBC has released its first iPad app that promises to bring up-to-the-second financial information to a more general audience. While most real-time services costs thousands of dollars in subscription fees, CNBC is keeping the iPad app free. However, in the coming weeks, the company is planning to rollout additional apps, with a focus on offering premium, paid content.
Politico:
  • Elizabeth Edwards Dies of Cancer. Elizabeth Edwards, who remade the role of the political spouse for a new media age, died Tuesday at her home in Chapel Hill, N.C., after a six-year struggle with cancer. Edwards, a lawyer, best-selling author and the wife of former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, was 61.
  • Harry Reid Tries to Add Online Poker to Tax Bill. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trying to use the tax cut package President Barack Obama brokered with Republicans to legalize online poker, POLITICO has learned — a move that could further complicate the deal Obama announced Monday.
  • Anger of House Democrats Boils Over. House Democrats railed against President Barack Obama's tax cut deal with congressional Republicans in a closed-door caucus meeting Tuesday night, even as there were signs that the White House could pick up enough support for the package to win enactment. Speaker after speaker expressed frustration at the president's acquiescence to Republican demands for a multi-year freeze on the rates for top income in exchange for an extension of unemployment insurance and a basket of Democratic-favored tax breaks, according to several Democratic sources.
Telegraph:
The Guardian:
YTN:
  • Artillery shells fell in North Korean waters today. The shells fell near South Korea's Baengyeong Island and may have been fired by North Korea.
Asahi:
  • North Korean 'New Military' Led by Hard-Line General. The North Korean propaganda machine has repeatedly described Kim Jong Un as an artillery genius who can speak seven languages, took up a rifle when he was 3 and is capable of striking a target every time he fires. But a hard-line army general who represents a "New Military" with increasing influence over the North Korean regime appears to be the true architect of the Nov. 23 artillery attack on Daeyeonpyeongdo island, according to sources.
ABC Radio Australia:
China Securities Journal:
  • Shanghai will be among the first group of Chinese cities to undertake property tax trials, citing an official with the city's housing bureau.
Haaretz.com:
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (GE), target $21.
Susquehanna:
  • Rated (UNP) Positive, target $115.
  • Rated (KSU) Positive, target $60.
  • Rated (WERN) Positive, target $28.
  • Rated (NSC) Positive, target $76.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.50 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 104.25 -3.5 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures -.29%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (COST)/.69
  • (UNFI)/.39
  • (GIII)/2.09
  • (KFY)/.24
  • (MATK)/.37
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,400,000 barrels versus a +1,066,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -300,000 barrels versus a +561,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -900,000 barrels versus a -194,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by +1.0% versus a -2.9% decline the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Barclays Tech Conference, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, CSFB Holiday Conference, Wells Fargo Real Estate Conference, UBS Media/Communications Conference, (ROK) analyst meeting and the (YUM) analyst conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Tax Policies, Less Economic Fear, Short-Covering


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.90 -.55%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 182.0 +11.66%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -1.35%
  • NYSE Arms .53 -52.06%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.01 bps -4.34%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 127.79 bps +1.95%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 180.50 bps -.55%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 210.73 bps -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 -2 bps
  • TED Spread 17.0 -1 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 262.0 +10 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $164.70/Metric Tonne -1.44%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.10 -2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25% +6 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +64 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Retail, Ag, Biotech and Technology long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: Added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades slightly higher despite soaring long-term rates, recent gains, China inflation worries and insider trading probe rumors. On the positive side, Restaurant, Hospital, Disk Drive, Software and Steel shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. Cyclical and Small-Cap shares are outperforming again. Copper is rising +.76% and Lumber is gaining +.95% despite more euro weakness. Weekly retail sales rose +3.8% this week versus a +3.2% gain the prior week. This is the best showing since the first week of April. The Italy sovereign cds is falling -5.95% to 202.34 bps. Gold is falling -1.45%. On the negative side, Airline, Construction, Gold, Oil Service and Coal shares are under pressure, falling more than 1.0%. The Portugal sovereign cds is gaining +1.15% to 440.26 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is climbing +4.0% to 195.30 bps. The US Muni CDS Index is rising +3.64% to 191.21 bps, as well. The 10-year yield is soaring +21 bps to 3.13%. Market leading stocks have mostly underperformed throughout the day. Some key investor sentiment gauges are getting a bit too bullish. The Fed's highly flawed QE2 program and more short-term US economic optimism, as a result of the tax policies, are fueling a huge surge in long-term interest rates, which could potentially derail the economy next year as oil and mortgage rates rise too much. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on soaring long-term rates, profit-taking, China inflation fears, insider trading probe rumors and technical selling.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • Tax Cuts May Fuel Economy, Limit Need to Extend Fed Purchases. President Barack Obama’s agreement to extend Bush-era income-tax cuts may give U.S. economic growth a boost while reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to prolong its $600 billion bond-purchase program. Obama’s deal with congressional Republicans may raise gross domestic product next year by as much as half a percentage point to about 3.1 percent, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics in New York, also raised his growth forecast for next year by half a point, to a range of 2.75 percent to 3 percent. Stocks rallied after the agreement was announced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level since the financial crisis in September 2008 on expectations that the extension of Bush-era tax rates, as well as reduction in payroll taxes, would spur the consumer spending that accounts for 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. “It bumps up consumer spending in the first half of next year,” Feroli said. “You’re going to have a pretty nice increase in disposable income.” Much of the increase would come from a 2 percent cut in payroll taxes -- which fund Social Security and Medicare -- that “we weren’t expecting,” he said. The payroll-tax cut would apply to all wage earners, an administration official told reporters on a conference call yesterday. That would be an $800 savings for individuals with an income of $40,000. Those who earn salaries of more than $106,800 would save a maximum of $2,136.
  • Credit-Default Swaps Tumble to One-Month Low on Obama Tax Cuts. The cost of protecting U.S. corporate bonds from default fell for a fifth day and to the lowest in a month after President Barack Obama agreed to extend tax cuts. “The market much prefers certainty to uncertainty,” Brian Yelvington, head of fixed-income research at Knight Libertas LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut wrote in an e-mailed note. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, decreased 2.9 basis points to a mid-price of 87.7 basis points as of 8:22 a.m. in New York, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd.
  • ECB Said to Be Buying Irish, Portuguese, Greek Government Securities Today. The European Central Bank bought Irish and Portuguese government bonds today, according to at least two people with knowledge of the transactions. Central banks were also buying Greek debt, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the deals are confidential. Irish 10-year bonds rose, sending the yield down nine basis points to 8.28 percent as of 12:27 p.m. in London.
  • Junk Bond Defaults Fell to 3.3% in November, to Drop Further, Moody's Says. The global speculative-grade default rate fell to a two-year low of 3.3 percent last month at Moody’s Investors Service, as junk-rated borrowers tapped the bond market at a record pace. The rate declined from 3.7 percent in October and 13.6 percent a year ago, Moody’s said in a report today. Defaults will fall to 2.9 percent by year-end and 1.8 percent by November 2011, according to the report. That compares with a forecast last month of 2.8 percent by year-end and 1.9 percent by October 2011.
  • Middle East Supertanker Excess Expands, Curbing Potential Rates Advance. A surplus of supertankers competing to collect 2 million-barrel cargoes of Middle East oil expanded, curbing the potential for rates to rally as Northern Hemisphere refineries seek more crude to meet winter demand. There are 23 percent more very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, for hire over the next four weeks than there are cargoes, according to the median estimate of six shipowners and brokers surveyed by Bloomberg News. The surplus was 18 percent for the past two weeks.
  • First Exchange-Traded Funds Backed by Industrial Metals Will Start Dec. 10. ETF Securities Ltd., whose managers started the world’s first gold-backed exchange-traded product, said it will list similar funds holding copper, nickel and tin on the London Stock Exchange on Dec. 10. Other ETPs backed by aluminum, lead and zinc will be introduced next year, the Jersey, Channel Islands-based company said in an e-mailed statement today. The first three funds will be denominated in dollars and carry a management expense ratio of 0.69 percent, it said. A seventh fund will track all six metals. “They give investors, for the first time, direct access to the physical metals market,” ETF Securities Chairman Graham Tuckwell said in the statement.
  • China, India, Brazil Push U.S. for Deeper Greenhouse Gas Cuts. China, India, Brazil and South Africa said the U.S. must pledge deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to help make progress in United Nations climate talks, sharpening divisions between rich and poor countries on how to combat global warming. The four developing nations at the talks in Cancun, Mexico, also called on industrialized economies to provide more aid for countries seeking to clean up their energy industries, adding to demands that the U.S. and European Union said may wreck the meeting.
  • Iran Agrees to More Nuclear Talks, Won't Suspend Enrichment. Iran agreed to more talks on its nuclear program while saying it would “absolutely not” suspend uranium enrichment, marking the first time in a more than a year that diplomatic options for the dispute are being kept alive.
  • Onyx(ONXX) Drug Reduced Cancer in a Third of Patients With Myeloma in New Study. Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s experimental drug carfilzomib shrank the tumors of one-third of study patients with multiple myeloma, a deadly blood cancer. The company’s shares surged the most in four months in New York trading. The company rose $3.91, or 13 percent, to $33.25 in Nasdaq Stock Market trading at 9:44 a.m.
  • Christie Says Goal Is To Erase New Jersey Budget Gap by End of First Term. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said his goal is to erase the state’s chronic budget deficits by the end of his first term. Christie, a Republican who took office in January, spoke to Bloomberg News after a speech to business leaders in Newark that was closed to the press.
  • Tax-Cut Extension Will Fuel U.S. Growth, Pimco's El-Erian Says: Tom Keene. Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian said that the U.S. tax agreement worked out by the Obama administration is good for growth as reflected in gains in stocks and commodities and declines in bonds. “It puts pressure on the fiscal situation so bonds are selling off,” El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of the firm that runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said in an interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “It is very important that the market is interpreting it as good for growth, so risk assets are rallying across the board.”

Wall Street Journal:
  • Hedge Funds Post $16 Billion Inflow in Oct., Heaviest Since Nov. 2009. Hedge funds hauled in $16 billion in October, marking the heaviest inflow the industry saw since November 2009, according to alternative investment data provider BarclayHedge.
  • 18 Countries Join China in Nobel Boycott. China and 18 other countries have declined to attend this year's Nobel Peace Prize ceremony honoring imprisoned Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, Nobel officials said Tuesday. China has unleashed a new barrage deriding the decision, with Chinese officials in Beijing called Liu's backers "clowns" in an anti-Chinese farce — comments that came only three days before the Dec. 10 Nobel peace prize ceremony in Oslo. Beijing considers Liu's recognition an attack on China's political and legal system, and says the country's policies will not be swayed by outside forces in what it calls "flagrant interference in China's sovereignty."
  • Julian Assange Denied Bail After Arrest. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was denied bail at a court hearing following his arrest in the U.K. early Tuesday on an international warrant related to sexual-assault allegations in Sweden.
CNBC:
  • Job Openings Rise Sharply to a Two Year High. Employers posted a sharp increase in job openings in October, raising hopes that hiring could pick up in the coming months. Businesses and government advertised nearly 3.4 million jobs at the end of October, up about 12 percent from the previous month, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
  • Payroll Tax Cut Signals Big Obama Shift to Supply Side. Wall Street cheered President Obama’s fiscal compromise with Republicans, not just the extension of the existing Bush-era tax cuts, but the addition of a payroll tax cut in particular as that measure may signal an even bigger shift on the part of the White House toward supply-side economics.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
New York Times:
  • Banks May Face Rating Cuts, Analyst Says. One of Wall Street’s most influential securities analysts is telling investors to brace themselves: some of the nation’s biggest banks could be on the cusp of a credit rating downgrade. In a new report, Glenn Schorr, who covers brokerage firms and banks at Nomura, says that while “it’s not a done deal, at present, Bank of America(BAC), Citigroup(C) and Morgan Stanley(MS) appear most at risk of being downgraded to Tier 2 status.”
HedgeCo.Net:
Apple Insider:
  • Apple(AAPL) Struggles to Meet iPhone 4, iPad, MacBook Air Demand in China. Apple's hottest products are facing significant demand in China, with the 11-inch MacBook Air, certain versions of the iPad, and the iPhone 4 all facing shortages. Analyst Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities is continuing his tour of the Far East, and on Monday provided investors an update on his second day in China. Though he noted the iPad and 11-inch MacBook Air, in particular he found the iPhone 4 to be Apple's most difficult product to purchase. He said wait times are around two months and carrier China Unicom is unable to fulfill about a third of preorders. "Most of the carriers agree that the high-end smartphone opportunity in China is approximately 100-125 million subscribers, which we view as the addressable market for the iPhone," White wrote.
Real Clear Politics:
  • Will the Next President & Congress Rescue Us From ObamaCare? Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winner in economics and an influential New York Times columnist, also has a blog, "The Conscience of a Liberal." On ABC's This Week (Nov. 14), during a discussion on balancing the federal budget against alarming deficits, he proclaimed the way to solve this problem is through deeply cost-effective health care rationing. "Some years down the pike," he said, "we're going to get the real solution, which is going to be a combination of death panels and sales taxes." That would mean the U.S. Debt Reduction Commission "should have endorsed the panel that was part of the [Obama] health care reform."
Politico:
  • Democratic Leaders Rip Tax Deal. Democratic leaders in the House are openly rebelling against President Barack Obama’s deal with Republicans on the Bush-era tax cuts — further isolating the president from Democrats who carried his agenda for the first two years of his presidency. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Tuesday that Democrats didn’t reach a deal with the White House, adding that his party believes it is “not appropriate” to extend tax cuts for upper-income Americans “when the deficit is at unacceptable levels.” “There was, at that point in time, no consensus or agreement reached by the House leadership,” Hoyer said. “There was a discussion it took some time, but there was no agreement reached.”
AP:
  • More Auto Loans Going to Subprime Buyers. Consumers with less than stellar credit are getting car loans again as lenders loosen their standards, and the trend is likely to continue as more lenders get into the business. The percentage of loans going to subprime buyers rose 8 percent in the third quarter, their first year-over-year increase since 2007, according to a report issued Tuesday by Experian, a credit reporting agency. For new cars, the percentage of loans going to subprime buyers rose 13 percent over the July-September period in 2009. The increase for used cars was 3 percent.
Arabian Business:

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value (+.52%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -1.24% 2) Coal -.92% 3) Gold -.72%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SWC, SSRI, WTFC, AVGO, GFRE, LLEN, FSYS, CRZO and FIRE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CX 2) PCYC 3) SWC 4) SPWRB 5) IRE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DFS 2) TASR 3) HAL 4) LPS 5) TLB