Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Bank Debt Riskiest to Junk Bonds Since '05 on Sovereign Concern. Subordinated financial bonds are the riskiest in almost six years relative to corporate junk debt in Europe on concern investors will be forced to share in the cost of bailing out profligate governments. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Subordinated Financial Index tied to bonds of 25 European banks and insurers jumped 4.5 basis points to 314.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The measure of swaps on the debt of companies with mostly high-yield ratings fell 9 basis points to 448, and the gap between the two risk gauges is the narrowest since March 2005. Investors are speculating European policy makers will be unable to contain the region’s worsening deficit crisis and that banks, the biggest holders of their debt, will be saddled with losses. Anglo Irish Bank Corp.’s subordinated bonds were valued as low as 18.25 percent of face value at an auction to settle credit-default swaps today. Swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of mostly junk companies dropped 9 basis points to 448, according to JPMorgan prices at 11:30 a.m. in London. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings fell 1 basis point to 104.75, JPMorgan prices show. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of swaps on senior debt of 25 banks and insurers declined 0.5 basis points to 154.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell 17,000 to 421,000 Last Week. The number of workers filing first- time claims for unemployment insurance payments fell last week in the U.S., showing the labor market continues to improve. Applications for jobless benefits decreased to 421,000, less than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from a revised 438,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure, dropped to the lowest level in more than two years. The four-week moving average fell to 427,500, the lowest since August 2008, from 431,500. The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits fell by 191,000 in the week ended Nov. 27 to 4.09 million. They were forecast to fall to 4.24 million. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, dropped to 3.2 percent in the week ended Nov. 27, the lowest in two years, today’s report showed.
• Household Worth in U.S. Rose by $1.2 Trillion in 3rd Quarter. Household wealth in the U.S. rose by $1.2 trillion in the third quarter as share prices jumped in response to an improving economy. Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased to $54.9 trillion from $53.7 trillion in the previous three months, according to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report issued today in Washington. American families also cut debt for a 10th consecutive quarter.
• Dollar Climbs After Fitch Cuts Ireland's Ratings. The dollar climbed against the euro after the credit ratings agency Fitch slashed Ireland's debt rating, saying its big bailout showed its debt crisis was worse than had been known. The move highlighted the euro region's problems and prompted traders to resume selling euros. The European Union bailed out Ireland because of its soaring borrowing costs following the rescue of Greece in May. Investors are nervous that Portugal or Spain may be next, and that the current 750 billion euro fund would not be big enough to rescue Spain.
• Dell(DELL) in Talks to Buy Compellent(CML) for About $876 Million to Add Data Storage. Dell Inc., the world’s third-largest personal-computer maker, is in exclusive talks to buy Compellent Technologies Inc. for about $876 million, a discount to the data-storage maker’s current market value. Dell would acquire all of the outstanding common stock of Compellent for $27.50 apiece in cash, the companies said today in a statement. That’s 18 percent less than yesterday’s closing price for Compellent. The stock had almost doubled in the past two months before today on speculation it will get bought.
• Citigroup(C) Adds Hedge-Fund Service Amid Scrutiny, Regulation. Citigroup Inc., the third-biggest U.S. bank, said its prime finance business is starting a consulting service for hedge funds amid increased scrutiny from investors and new requirements from regulators.
• Gold Futures Rebound as Drop From Record Price Spurs Demand From Investors. “The bottom line is that investors are losing faith in paper money,” said Lannie Cohen, the president of Capitol Commodity Services Inc. in Indianapolis. “Gold will continue to act as the currency of choice.” Gold futures for February delivery rose $1.50, or 0.1 percent, to $1,384.70 at 11:25 a.m. on the Comex in New York. “If you were in Europe, you’d be buying gold to preserve your wealth,” Cohen said. The metal priced in euros reached a record on Dec. 7 as Europe’s debt woes spurred demand.
• Most Americans Say They're Worse Off Since Obama Took Office, Poll Shows. More than 50 percent of Americans say they are worse off now than they were two years ago when President Barack Obama took office, and two-thirds believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a Bloomberg National Poll shows. The survey, conducted Dec. 4-7, finds that 51 percent of respondents think their situation has deteriorated, compared with 35 percent who say they’re doing better. Americans have grown more downbeat about the country’s future in just the last couple of months, the poll shows. The pessimism cuts across political parties and age groups, and is common to both sexes. Sixty-six percent say the nation is headed in the wrong direction. That’s up from 62 percent who felt that way in an October poll and is the worst reading since the Bloomberg National Poll began in September 2009.
• Kim Jong Il Meets Chinese Diplomat for Talks Over Korea, Reaches Consensus. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and China’s top diplomat “reached important consensus” today on issues of the Korean peninsula, where tensions have heightened since the North’s attack on South Korean soil. Kim met with State Councilor Dai Bingguo in Pyongyang today and had “frank and in-depth talks,” China’s Foreign Ministry said on its website, without providing details. The two discussed “ways to further solidify cooperative relations,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported.
• Roach Says China Should 'Aggressively' Quell Inflation to Help Consumers. China should move “aggressively” to crack down on inflation to help the nation become a more consumption-driven economy, said Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman at Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. “The longer government policy makers wait to address inflation, the tougher it will be to deal with” structural changes, Roach told reporters in Hong Kong today. “My advice is move quickly and aggressively to deal with inflation, so that you can get on with the most important transition in China, which is stimulating internal private consumption.”
• Ron Paul, Author of 'End the Fed,' to Lead Fed Oversight Panel. Representative Ron Paul, Texas Republican and author of “End the Fed,” will take control of the House subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve.
• Life Expectancy in the U.S. Drops for First Time Since 1993. Life expectancy of Americans fell for the first time in 15 years, as the nation’s oldest adults died from heart disease, cancer and respiratory ailments, according to a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. Based on data from 2008, the latest available, life expectancy in the U.S. fell 36.5 days from 2007 to 77.8 years, according to the report released today.
• SEC Considering Curbs on Algorithms Blamed for May 6 Crash, Official Says. The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering whether to require automated trading programs known as algorithms to run risk checks that prevent errant executions, according to David Shillman, an associate director in the agency’s division of trading and markets. Regulators are concerned algorithms could act “too aggressively,” causing a security’s price to move rapidly, Shillman said. Safety checks could prevent algorithms, which execute larger trades by slicing them into pieces, from destabilizing markets. The SEC says an algorithmic trade of futures that gave no regard to prices or timing helped drive the May 6 crash that erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. equities in less than 20 minutes. The SEC is considering whether there should be a “throttle on an algorithm that prevents overly aggressive moves without checks on price or time,” Shillman said at an Investment Company Institute conference in New York today. Another idea regulators are evaluating is whether “baseline qualifications” should be required for individuals who design and use trading algorithms. Shillman said this is a separate issue from the notion of a throttle.
• Citigroup(C) Names Obama's Orszag Vice Chairman of Investment Bank. Citigroup Inc., the biggest bailout recipient among U.S. banks during the financial crisis, hired former White House Budget Director Peter Orszag to be vice chairman of its investment-banking division.
• Chubb(CHB) Plans to Buy Back 30 Million Shares in Insurer's Biggest Repurchase. Chubb Corp., the insurer of commercial property and high-end homes, said it will repurchase 30 million shares, the company’s biggest buyback, after raising its forecast for full-year profit. The repurchase program equals almost 10 percent of the 304.9 million Chubb shares outstanding as of Sept. 30 and would cost about $1.8 billion at the Warren, New Jersey-based company’s $58.70 closing price yesterday. Chubb’s largest buyback announced before today was in December 2007 when the company said it would repurchase 28 million shares.

CNBC:

• Mortgage Rates Hit Six Month High, Threatening Housing. Rates on fixed mortgages rose for the fourth straight week this week, hitting 4.61 percent. The surge could slow refinancings and further hamper the housing market.
• Government, Fannie Mae Considering Help for Housing Investors.
  

Business Insider:

• Try as She Might Megyn Kelly Can't Break The Resolve of Code Pink Woman Who Thinks WikiLeaks Leaker is Heroic.

Zero Hedge:

• Car Containing Prince Charles and Camilla Attacked in London by Angry Protesters.

New York Post:

• Hulu's in a Netflix(NFLX) Headlock. Netflix's muscle-flexing deal yesterday with Disney not only reinforces the fact that it is a programming distributor to be reckoned with, it is also forcing rival Hulu to reconfigure its business plan, sources tell The Post. Hulu CEO Jason Kilar must either step up and acquire additional distribution rights to compete head-to-head with Netflix or drop its fee and focus on free offerings, the sources said.

Politico:

• House Dems Reject Tax Deal. The House Democratic Caucus voted to oppose President Barack Obama’s tax plan, throwing into flux weeks of negotiations on an issue that has turned many congressional Democrats against the White House. Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio offered a resolution in a closed Democratic caucus meeting Thursday morning that said Democrats would oppose the bill in its current form.

Reuters:

• China, HK Should Rein in Property Prices - IMF Paper. China and Hong Kong need to implement more measures to rein in the threat of property bubbles forming in certain sectors of their markets, the International Monetary Fund said in a working paper citing the views of economists. China and Hong Kong, and many other markets in Asia including Singapore and India, face asset bubble threats, especially in the property sector, from strong economic growth and cheap money flowing in from the West driven by ultra-easy monetary policies. "The mass-market segment in a few large cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the luxury segment in Beijing and Nanjing appear to be increasingly disconnected from fundamentals," the IMF said in the paper released on Friday. "(Cooling prices) will require an increase in real interest rates, a higher carrying cost of homeownership (such as can be achieved by a broad-based property tax), and, in the case of China, broad financial market development to alternative investment vehicles to housing."
• Moody's May Cut Some Portuguese Banks' Ratings.
  

El Universal:

• Mexican Newspaper: Chávez's family has $137 million in US accounts. According to DEA reports, Venezuela’s presidential family holds five bank accounts in the United States. La Razón reported that "under the umbrella of power, the Venezuelan president's family has a life style that includes jewelry, cars, travels and even weapons, in contrast to Chávez's anti-capitalist discourse."
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth (+.02%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -1.91% 2) Defense -.84% 3) Computer Service -.83%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CMTL, SNH, SRX, TITN, MATK, HMIN, GSIC, TSTC, OXM, HDB and EQY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GAP 2) GDXJ 3) AIG 4) DF 5) SVU
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ELON 2) MS 3) V 4) EXC 5) EP
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value (+.47%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +1.16% 2) Banks +1.04% 3) Coal +.76%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AIG, IVN, BCS, BAC, PFG, CYMI, SWC, PUK, MIPS, VRNT, PZE, LUK, FO, MXWL, LULU, ASML, DMND, TEVA, NTLS, NXPI, CIEN, HELE, HITK, ENOC, GIII, CTCT, HOLI, LCAPA, GHDX, ASYS, AVGO, CHBT, FMCN, ARB, SFD and OLP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EK 2) CML 3) LULU 4) BBT 5) CIEN
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HD 2) FO 3) BDC 4) EQR 5) COST
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Libya's Ghanem Expects OPEC Quota Rollover, Expects $100 Crude Oil 'Soon'. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep its production quotas unchanged as oil gets ready to hit $100 a barrel, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., said. OPEC, which is scheduled to gather Dec. 11 in Quito, Ecuador, will probably agree to a quota rollover and will focus on discussing compliance during this meeting, Ghanem said today at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport.
• Copper Gains to Record in London on Concern Fed May Extend Asset Purchases. Copper climbed to a record in London and advanced to a 31-month high in New York on concern that the Federal Reserve may extend asset purchases to support the economy, driving the dollar lower and boosting the appeal of commodities as alternative investments. The metal for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.6 percent to $9,066 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, surpassing the previous peak of $9,044 on Dec. 7. It traded at $9,037.25 at 11:30 a.m. Singapore time, up 23 percent this year.
• Obama Proposes Easing Export Controls on 37 Allies. The Obama administration proposed easing controls on the export of technology items that may be used for military purposes to 37 allies, including Canada, Japan, Germany and France. The U.S. requires exporters to obtain a license to sell civilian technology, such as aircraft parts and encryption software, that also can be used for military purposes. The restrictions vary based on U.S. relations with the government, and those rules are administered by the Commerce Department and State Department.
• India's Inflation Holds Above 'Tolerance Level,' Subbarao Says. India’s inflation remains above “tolerance level,” central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said ahead of the monetary policy announcement next week. “Inflation is coming down but is still above the RBI’s tolerance level,” Subbarao told reporters in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata yesterday. India’s benchmark wholesale-price inflation cooled to a nine-month low of 8.58 percent in October. The Reserve Bank of India aims to slow inflation to between 4 percent and 4.5 percent.
• Apple(AAPL) Displaces Samsung on Home Turf With iPhone. For more than a decade, Kim Jung Yeon only bought phones from Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc., passing on best sellers made by non-Korean companies such as Motorola Inc.’s Razr. Her loyalty ended with Apple Inc.’s iPhone. “The iPhone has a cool design and I love the feel and grip of the phone,” said the 37-year-old Web designer in Seoul, who bought the device last year, and enjoys using applications about food recipes. “I don’t see any reason why I should return to LG or Samsung phones again if I buy another smartphone.”
• LBO Defaults to Climb as Debt Costs Top Growth, Mudrick Says. Defaults on speculative-grade debt will climb in the next five years as companies bought by private-equity firms before markets seized up in 2008 struggle to boost earnings, said hedge-fund manager Jason Mudrick. Borrowers may renege on $150 billion to $250 billion of leveraged loans and high-yield bonds due by 2015, or between 15 percent and 25 percent of the amount maturing, said Mudrick, president of Mudrick Capital Management LP, at a briefing in New York. The former money manager at Contrarian Capital Management LLC, who started his fund in July 2009 and oversees $150 million, is predicting the rise in defaults even as Moody’s Investors Service said the 12-month rate in the U.S. fell to 3.5 percent in November from 14.7 percent last year.
• New York Teachers' Union Fights City Over Release of Performance Reports. The United Federation of Teachers went to court to stop the New York City Department of Education from publicly disclosing the names and performance reports of teachers in the biggest U.S. public school system.
• Mullen Says 'Too Much at Stake' for China 'Myopia' on North Korea. China’s reluctance to try and persuade North Korea to abandon its aggressive stance in Asia imperils regional stability, said U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. China is “unwilling” to use its influence as the North’s biggest ally to curtail Kim Jong Il’s regime, Mullen told reporters today in Tokyo, reiterating earlier remarks. North Korea “has been unable” to “recognize the risks and the costs of miscalculation,” Mullen said. “China must lead and guide North Korea to a better future. There is too much at stake for this sort of myopia.” “What once was unusual is becoming all too routine,” he said. “I speak mainly here of North Korean aggression that threatens all of us, but it applies as well to a wide range of economic, social and political changes throughout the region. As threats evolve, so too must we.”

Wall Street Journal:

• House Democrats Seek Boost In Regulator Funding. A budget bill unveiled by U.S. House Democrats on Wednesday contains big funding boosts for federal securities and futures regulators working to erect a vast regime for the over-the-counter derivatives market.
• Traders Ready for Silver to Tarnish. There is a tinge of worry about silver in the options market. Bearish put options have been unusually active lately in the iShares Silver Trust, a popular exchange-traded fund tracking the metal that broke a new 52-week high on Tuesday. Puts convey the right to sell shares at a fixed price on or before an agreed-upon date. Nearly the same number of puts as bullish call options to buy the fund changed hands Wednesday, according to Trade Alert, following similar action in the previous session.
• Investor Survey Says: Bet Oppositely. When the American Association of Individual Investors' weekly gauge of sentiment hits the tape early Thursday, much of Wall Street will be ready to pore over the numbers.
• North Korea Claims Waters Around Shelled Island. North Korea state media on Thursday issued a statement that claimed possession of all waters around South Korea-controlled Yeonpyeong Island, clarifying for the first time that its Nov. 23 attack of the island was motivated by a different view of the inter-Korean maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea than is widely held.

CNBC:

• 'Shove It' Indicator Turns Positive: More People Quitting. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Julian Assange May Have The Files For Every Single Prisoner In Guantanamo. Evidently, what's worrisome to government officials is evidence that GITMO prisoners have been released, despite clear evidence of their posing an ongoing threat.
• Treasury to Sell $10 Billion in AIG(AIG) Shares, Company to Recapitalize.
• Glenn Beck: Hey George Soros, Here's How I'd Create a Dictatorship! (video)
  

Zero Hedge:

• Department of Justice "Crackdown" on Wall Street is Just a P.R. Stunt Targeting Small-Time Crooks.
• Watch Latest Farcical Senate Hearing on Flash Crash. (video)
• 31 Consecutive Outflows From Domestic Equity Funds. (graphs)
  

NY Times:

• Morgan Stanley(MS) Aims to Rein in Executive Pay.

CNN Money:

• MasterCard(MA), Visa(V) Targeted in Apparent Cyberattack. The corporate websites of Visa and MasterCard were inaccessible at times Wednesday due to an apparent cyberattack by purported Wikileaks backers. Messages posted on Twitter indicated the attacks maybe be in response to recent moves by Visa and Mastercard against WikiLeaks, the website that recently released thousands of secret U.S. State Department documents.

Politico:

• Tax Deal Gains Steam Toward Passage. A wave of new Democratic support Wednesday signaled that President Barack Obama’s deal to renew the Bush tax cuts would make it through Congress, as long as most Republicans lined up behind it as expected. With Democrats in both chambers still angry about parts of the package, the administration scrambled to allay concerns and build momentum for the unusual deal with congressional Republicans reached this week. By the end of the day, the measure looked increasingly likely to pass, as Democrats stepped forward one by one to back it.

Reuters:

• Fortress(FIG) CEO Sees Raising $5 Billion of Capital in '10. Hedge fund and private equity firm Fortress Investment Group said that he expects the firm to have raised $5 billion in new capital this year as it works to build relationships with investors globally. The firm's Chief Executive Dan Mudd said at the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference in New York, that the company "should be over" $5 billion in new capital raising through the full year of 2010.
• BlackRock's(BLK) Fink Sees "Very Strong" Q4 Profit. BlackRock Inc, the world's largest money manager, will report "very strong" earnings and profit margins for the fourth quarter, Chief Executive Laurence Fink said on Wednesday.
• Fed Said to Unveil Debit-Card Fee Limits Next Week. The Federal Reserve is expected to unveil a proposed rule next week that would limit the transaction fees that banks can charge retailers when a customer uses a debit card, according to two industry sources familiar with the matter.

Financial Times:

• Merkel Seeks Calm After Juncker E-Bond Blast. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has called for calm in the European Union after an angry attack by Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg, who accused Berlin of being “un-European” and “a bit simple” in making some areas “taboo” in EU negotiations. Amid signs of increasing tension between eurozone leaders over how to cope with the sovereign debt crisis that has undermined their common currency, Ms Merkel urged her fellow EU leaders to concentrate on reaching a good decision for the future of the euro at their summit in Brussels next week. At the same time she repeated her rejection of Mr Juncker’s proposal for jointly guaranteed eurobonds to help finance the most debt-laden members of the currency union. “The discussion does not help us,” she said after meeting Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish prime minister.

Telegraph:

• EU's Michel Barnier Unveils Clampdown on Derivatives, Bonds and Commodities Markets.

The Guardian:

• Allied Irish Banks to Pay €40m bonuses despite bailout. Stricken Allied Irish Banks says court case forces it to give out bonuses while Ireland's taxpayers suffer. Stricken Allied Irish Banks is preparing to hand out €40m (£34m) of bonuses next week – despite being on the brink of receiving another emergency bailout from the Irish government. As many as 2,400 bankers in its Dublin capital markets division are to receive the payments on 17 December under agreements struck with the bank in 2008. The bank, 19% owned by Ireland's taxpayers but expected to reach 95% state-ownership, had originally been blocked from making the payments under one of the government's bailout programmes.

Shanghai Daily:

• New homes in major Chinese cities are "overpriced" by an average of 30%, citing the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' annual housing report released yesterday. The report said prices of new properties in Fuzhou in the southeastern seaboard province of Fujian were most inflated with a "price-bubble index" of .703. Hangzhou in Zhejiang province and Nanning in the Guangxi region were second and third.

Oriental Morning Post:

• China's three commodities exchanges in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou are considering increasing contract sizes to curb speculation, citing managers at futures brokerages. Large contract sizes require more funds to trade.

21st Century Business Herald:

• Former Chinese central bank deputy governor Wu Xiaoling said banks' reserve ratio should be raised more frequently while there are large foreign exchange inflows. There is still room to further raise reserve ratios, Wu said.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (GLW), target $22.50.
• Reiterated Sell on (GNW), target $13.

Oppenheimer:

• Rated (VPRT) Outperform, target $55.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.50 unch.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 106.0 +1.75 basis points.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.42%
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CIEN)/-.16
• (GRB)/.08
• (SFD)/.56
• (JW/A)/.95
• (BF/B)/1.00
• (NSM)/.32
• (PLL)/.50
• (GMCR)/.20
• (BGP)/-.51
• (ESL)/1.20

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 425K versus 436K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4237K versus 4270K prior.

10:00 am EST'

• Wholesale Inventories for October are estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.5% gain in September.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Goldman Sachs Automotive Conference, Lazard Cloud Computing Summit, Barclays Tech Conference, (BFB) analyst conference, (AKAM) investor summit, (DPZ) analyst meeting, (DLR) investor day, (NUAN) analyst day, (PFG) investor day and the (UTX) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Seasonal Strength, Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Tech Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  
• Sector Performance: Mixed
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.78 -1.22%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -33.78%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 +2.67%
  
• NYSE Arms .68 +29.76%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 bps +2.26%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 135.28 bps +5.82%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 178.17 bps -1.29%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.88 bps +.78%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 -1 bp
  
• TED Spread 17.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% +1 bp
  
• Yield Curve 263.0 +1 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $165.0/Metric Tonne +.18%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.10 unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% -5 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +38 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech, Medical and Technology long positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades slightly higher despite soaring long-term rates, recent gains, China inflation worries and US municipal debt concerns. On the positive side, Education, Insurance, Hospital and Bank shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. (XLF) has traded well throughout the day. Copper is rising +1.27% and Lumber is gaining +2.89% despite more euro weakness. The Italy sovereign cds is falling -3.81% to 194.40 bps. Gold is falling -1.11%. On the negative side, Airline, Road & Rail, Gaming, Restaurant, REIT, Homebuilding, Steel, Gold, Ag, Coal, Oil Tanker and Paper shares are under pressure, falling more than 1.0%. (IYR) has been heavy throughout the day. Cyclicals and small-caps are underperforming. The Greece sovereign cds is jumping +3.41% to 940.47 bps, the China sovereign cds is surging +5.51% to 74.19 bps and the Japan sovereign cds is rising +3.33% to 70.21 bps. The European Financial Sector CDS Index is beginning to trend higher again. Moreover, the US Muni CDS Index is rising +4.34% to 199.50 bps. The 10-year yield is soaring another +11 bps to 3.24%. The Citi Asia Pacific Economic Surprise Index is falling to another 52-week low today to -10.0. It is now at the lowest level since May 2009. Some key investor sentiment gauges remain a bit too bullish. The 10-year yield is mostly jumping on rising economic growth and inflation expectations, not on deficit worries, in my opinion. The US sovereign cds is flat over the last 5 days. Despite a number of potential negative equity catalysts, the bears remain unable to gain any traction, which is a big positive. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on soaring long-term rates, profit-taking, China inflation fears, US municipal debt concerns and technical selling,

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Wall Street Asks Agencies to Slow Down on New Derivatives Rules. Eleven financial-industry trade associations representing Wall Street banks, hedge funds, swaps dealers are asking federal regulators writing new derivatives rules to slow down. In a letter sent to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, the groups called for extending public comment periods on some regulatory proposals and said firms should be given more time to implement new directives. “We are concerned that market participants will be asked to do too much in too short a time,” the groups wrote in the letter sent yesterday. “This could have significant adverse consequences for the customers that rely on these products.”
• Democrats Urge Senate Leaders to Add Build-America Program to Tax Accord. Democratic senators are urging the chamber’s leaders to continue the Build America Bond program as part of legislation enacting the agreement that President Barack Obama struck to extend the 2001 and 2003 income-tax cuts. The federally subsidized initiative, which pays 35 percent of the interest on state and local government bonds sold for public-works projects, wasn’t included in the deal that the White House brokered with Republicans.
• Byron Wien Says S&P 500 May Advance to Record in 2011 on Profits, Economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rise at least 28 percent through next year to a record as corporate profits and the economy improve, according to Byron Wien, the vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services.
• Physical Gold Sales Slowing as Prices Rally, Standard Bank Says. Gold investors and jewelers are becoming more accustomed to higher prices and physical sales of the metal slowed compared with when bullion last climbed above $1,400 an ounce, according to Standard Bank Plc. The Standard Bank Physical Gold Flow Index dropped to minus 21 yesterday as prices reached a record $1,431.25. That compares with a slide to as low as minus 85 on Nov. 11, two days after the metal climbed to a then-record $1,424.60. An index value below zero indicates net selling of physical gold and a value above zero shows net buying.
• U.S. States Face 'Cliff' as Federal Stimulus Ending Opens $38 Billion Hole. U.S. states are preparing for more budget cuts next year as tax revenue isn’t likely to rebound enough to replace almost $38 billion in aid that will be gone as federal economic stimulus ends, according to a report. At least 31 states and Puerto Rico are forecasting deficits of $82.1 billion in the next fiscal year even as tax receipts are picking up, the National Conference of State Legislatures said today. Under a temporary mandate since 2009, the U.S. has provided economic aid to states, helping to pay government workers and shoulder the cost of the Medicaid program to provide health care for the poor. That aid will be gone, the group said.
• Bank of America(BAC) Deal in Muni Case May be 'Tip of the Iceberg'.
• Banks in Europe Fail Stress Tests With No Authority. In the five months after the U.S. published results of its 2009 bank stress tests, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index rose 25 percent. Five months after the European Union released its version, the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index is down 4 percent. The failure of the EU tests to restore confidence in the region’s banks was underscored last month when Ireland directed its two biggest lenders, both of which passed the exams, to raise additional capital. Since the results were disclosed on July 23, the cost of insuring the senior debt of 110 European banks against default rose 113 basis points, or 1.13 percentage points, while credit-default swaps on 34 of the largest U.S. banks are unchanged, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
• Tax Appeals Swamp US Cities, Towns as Property Prices Plunge. A fiscal flood that threatens to swamp local government budgets across the U.S. overflows from file cabinets in the office of Patty Halm, chair of the Michigan Tax Tribunal. The backlog of cases from taxpayers seeking to lower property-tax bills of more than $100,000 shot up to 14,236 this year from an annual average of about 6,000 during the past decade. The backlog of smaller claims was at 28,558 at the end of September, eight times higher than a decade ago, according to records at the tribunal, a Lansing-based administrative court.
• IMF's Strauss-Kahn Says Europe Still in 'Troubling' Situation on Deficits. Europe, where a debt crisis prompted bailouts of Greece and Ireland this year, remains in a “troubling” situation, the head of the International Monetary Fund said. The effects of the global financial turmoil “are far from over,” IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said today in Geneva, according to a copy of his prepared remarks. “The situation in Europe remains troubling and the future is more uncertain than ever.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Two Large Banks Tied to Gerson, Big Network Firm. Two large Wall Street firms formed alliances with the nation's largest "expert-network" firm in recent years, giving them a vested interest in the outcome of a big insider-trading investigation. One of those Wall Street firms, Credit Suisse Group(CS), recently received a subpoena seeking information and documents related to its use of experts at Gerson Lehrman Group, a large expert-network firm, by the banks' researchers and clients, people familiar with the matter says. Credit Suisse declined to comment. Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley(MS), another large bank, have formal partnership agreements with Gerson Lehrman dating back to 2008. Those alliances boosted access by the banks and their clients to Gerson's network of doctors, technology-firm employees and thousands of other experts; and some of the banks' researchers and analysts in turn were made available to consult with Gerson clients.
• Overhaul of Oil Industry Urged. The oil and gas industry needs a "major transformation" in its approach to safety to avoid another big offshore-drilling disaster, a leader of the presidential panel investigating the BP PLC accident plans to tell a gathering of industry officials Wednesday.
• Wells Fargo(WFC), Visa(V) Test Mobile Payments. Wells Fargo & Co. said Tuesday it is testing mobile payments through a pilot program with Visa Inc., stepping up competition with telephone companies that also hope to dominate the business. The pilot program, which will take place in San Francisco, where the two companies are based, comes on the heels of a mobile payments joint venture announced last month between three major U.S. wireless carriers. The developments underscore tension among card lenders and wireless companies over who controls the mobile-payment network.
• States Face Budget Shortfalls of $26.7 Billion. States are reporting billions in midyear budget shortfalls, and the crunch is likely to continue for at least several more years, a new report says. Fifteen states are facing combined budget gaps midway through their 2011 fiscal year totaling $26.7 billion, according to a National Conference of State Legislatures report to be released Wednesday. Illinois had the largest midyear shortfall relative to the size of its budget among the 15 states with deficits: $13 billion, or 47% of its general-fund budget. While states have been able to rely partly on federal funding from the stimulus program to weather the recession and its aftermath, most of that funding will be exhausted next year, fiscal 2012. States will have $37.9 billion less in federal stimulus funding in fiscal 2012, compared with this year.
• EU Seeks Limits on Commodity Trading. The European Commission Wednesday said it wants to ensure that national regulators have the power to limit commodity traders' bets. The proposal is aimed at preventing traders from manipulating commodities markets, a common accusation in the summer of 2008 when food and energy prices soared to record highs. The commission, the European Union's executive arm, said it wants to ensure that EU national regulators have the authority to set limits when they determine that commodity markets aren't functioning properly, with EU institutions having a coordinating role.
• Investors Pile Into Commodities. Investors are holding their biggest positions on record in the commodities markets as prices surge and debate intensifies among U.S. regulators about whether to limit the amount that any one trader can bet in markets for energy, metals and agricultural products. Hedge funds, pension funds and mutual funds dramatically ramped up their holdings in everything from oil and natural gas to silver, corn and wheat this year. In many cases, the number of contracts held for individual commodities now far exceeds the amount outstanding in mid-2008, the last time commodity markets were soaring to records and debate raged about whether excessive speculation was driving up prices. Contracts held by investors have risen 12% this year through October and are 17% higher than June 2008, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the market regulator. In several commodities, including the $200 billion crude oil market, so-called speculative investors now make up a significantly larger proportion of the market than they did in 2008. Investors increased their bullish bets on crude oil by 24% since June 2008 and now represent 16% of the market, up from 13% just over two years ago. Bets in the copper market are up 58% and for silver they are up 52%, according to the CFTC data. "Speculative money from the likes of hedge funds, index funds and pension funds is coming into the commodity markets at a blistering pace," Mr. Chilton said in prepared remarks for a speech he plans to make on Wednesday at a conference in New York. "If prices are skewed in a manner that is not fair by speculators, consumers can pay more than they should," he said. According to Barclays Capital, investors have piled a total of $121.2 billion into commodities since the beginning of 2009. The emergence of exchange-traded funds that buy commodities futures contracts, such as the U.S. Oil Fund and U.S. Natural Gas Fund, have helped lead a march into commodities over the past few years. Gold has jumped 29% this year and reached a nominal record of $1,415.30 per troy ounce this week. Copper is up 22% and trading near its record high of $4.0775 per pound. Silver prices are at 30-year highs and oil on Tuesday surpassed $90 during the trading day for the first time since October 2008.
• BofA Merrill to Expand Its Online Brokerage Business.
• The Bush Tax Cuts Never Went Far Enough. A permanent reduction in capital taxes would increase productivity and wages. Postwar Britain shows how higher capital tax rates reduce investment and damage economic growth.

CNBC:

• In Shift, Mexico to Allow Oil Drilling Again. In a major shift for Mexico, the country will allow private companies—both domestic and foreign—to drill for oil there, the first time in 70 years. This move came as a result of a supreme court decision there on Tuesday. This step for Mexico is crucial for the oil-rich nation and it’s long-term prospects. Even though it has so much oil, if the country doesn’t make the right moves—and build infrastructure—the nation will end up importing oil. Mexico ranks number three as an oil supplier to the US.
• Online Retail Sales Up 12% and Best Yet to Come. The latest read on online holiday shopping from Comscore shows a 12 percent increase in spending in the first 35 days of the November through December shopping season compared with the same period a year ago.

Business Insider:

• David Einhorn Explains How QE2 Will Affect The Average American In One Sentence. In case you've been MIA the past month, the Federal Reserve decided to buy another $600 billion in Treasuries (and might buy more) on November 3rd. Technically, they did it "to lower borrowing costs and stimulate the economy," says Einhorn, but QE2 will instead probably result in rising prices of basic goods for consumers and businesses, which will curtail economic growth. Basically, the Fed just threw away $600 + billion because QE2 "will be counterproductive," he told Rose, according to Bloomberg. “The goal of quantitative easing right now is to raise the inflation rate. If you do raise the price of clothing, it effectively lowers everybody’s standard of living and gives them less money to buy other things.”

Zero Hedge:

• Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen Says "Unsure Whether Obama-Republican Deal Can Pass House In Current Form".
• TIPS Breakevens Indicate Inflation Expectations "Double" From Two Months Ago.
  

New York Times:

• What the Fed Is Still Owed by Wall Street. The Federal Reserve has a story and is sticking to it: We didn’t lose taxpayer money, and we won’t. But several emergency programs and credit lines still exist, and the path to profitability on them remains uncertain. Hedge funds, pension funds and other investors have some $25 billion in outstanding loans from the Fed, some backed by subprime consumer debt. The central bank’s books are stocked with $66 billion of securities related to Bear Stearns and the American International Group, and the troubled insurer also owes $20 billion on a Fed credit line.
• Three Years After Private Equity Boom, an Exit Strategy. Private equity firms may finally have an exit strategy for deals made at the height of the buyout boom. While the market for initial public offerings remains unpredictable, the industry increasingly is finding a steady stream of buyers among rival firms and corporate suitors flush with cash.
• Central Bank and Financiers Fight Over Fate of the Euro. On one side is the European Central Bank, which is spending billions to prop up Europe’s weak-kneed bond markets and safeguard the common currency. On the other side are hedge funds and big financial institutions that are betting against those same bonds and, by extension, against the central bank, that mighty symbol of Europe’s monetary union. The war keeps escalating as traders position themselves for what some believe is inevitable: a default by Greece, Ireland or perhaps even Portugal. The central bank owns about 17 percent of the combined debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Goldman Sachs estimates.

Forbes:

• Russell Abrams' Hedge Fund Accused of Fraud Amid Losses of 70%. Russell Abrams, founder of New York hedge fund firm Titan Capital Group, which not so long ago reportedly managed $400 million, is having a terrible year. One of his main hedge funds has suffered losses of as much as 70% since the end of June, according to a document filed in Manhattan’s New York state court.

GoldSeek:

• Fed's QE Ponzi Scheme Begins to Backfire.

Reuters:

• ECB Consensus at Risk Unless Governments Act. A fragile consensus at the European Central Bank could break down soon, threatening its triage operation to buy bonds from the euro zone's weakest economies, unless governments do more to resolve the bloc's debt crisis.
• US Regulations Hurt Competitiveness - Business Group. A broad-based financial regulatory overhaul enacted this year overreaches and must be modified to avoid hurting U.S. companies' ability to compete and create jobs, a prominent business group said on Wednesday. The Business Roundtable, made up of chief executives of leading firms from banking to oil production, said the Dodd-Frank bill contains provisions that reach far beyond the financial sector and could be a drag on economic recovery.

Telegraph:

• Eurozone Debt Fears Infect German Bonds. Eurozone debt crisis worries spread to German bonds as nervous markets turned their attention from Ireland to the splits within the European Union over how to stem contagion.

DigiTimes:

• LED Lighting to Reach US$15.4 Billion in 2011 With Over 10% Market Share. Lighting will generate significant growth for the LED industry. Based on latest data from Digitimes Research, the high brightness LED market will grow to US$12.6 billion in 2011, up 53% from US$8.25 billion in 2010. The overall use of LEDs in lighting will increase to 12.4 billion units in 2011 from 4.8 billion units in 2010, as the effects of LED light bulbs replacing incandescent bulbs will start to show in 2011.

Macau Daily Times:

• Five Unused Plots to Be Taken Back. The Government has decided to push forward with the recall of five undeveloped plots, secretary for Transport and Public Works, Lau Si Io, revealed yesterday at the Legislative Assembly. The process to declare that the concession of these areas has lapsed has already begun, he explained. During the 2011 Policy Address, Lau said two more cases were sent to the Public Attorney’s Office to evaluate whether or not there are grounds for a civil suit. In total, he stated, “approximately 30 cases” of unused plots are being analysed.