Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Euro-Area Bond Stokes Tempers as Flashpoint for Debt Markets: Euro Credit. A proposal to sell joint euro-region debt has emerged as a new flashpoint among European leaders running out of options to stabilize bond markets. With a European Union summit set for next week in Brussels, officials from Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium and Greece said the proposal should be explored, prompting resistance from Germany, France and Austria. Economists and analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and HSBC Holdings Plc said it may end the euro-region debt crisis. The plan would establish a European Debt Agency to sell bonds to finance as much as 50 percent of EU member borrowing, rising to as much as 100 percent for countries unable to lure investors, and take pressure off the European Central Bank to prop up markets. Opponents say such bonds would burden stronger countries with higher borrowing costs.
• China Credit 'Bubble' Set for Bust on Trade Row, Blackhorse's Duncan Says. China’s economy is history’s biggest bubble and may be headed for collapse, according to Richard Duncan, chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Management Pte. who predicted a credit boom would trigger a global recession. A more than 50 percent surge in China’s money supply since 2008 helped fuel economic growth in excess of 9 percent per year, even as trading partners sank into recession. The expansion also saddled the country with factories that produce three times more goods than can be bought by China’s workers, 80 percent of whom make less than $5 a day, said Duncan. “China has the greatest economic bubble in history,” said Duncan, author of “The Dollar Crisis” first published in 2003. “There’s a real risk it’s going to collapse in a Great Depression-style scenario.” “It’s hugely hypocritical for the Chinese to say anything about the U.S. doing quantitative easing because they’re the kings of quantitative easing,” Duncan said in a phone interview this week from Bangkok. Premier Wen Jiabao’s government has been creating about $250 billion worth of yuan each year “out of thin air,” Duncan said. To keep its currency from appreciating, the People’s Bank of China has been printing yuan to offset the dollars flowing in from a trade surplus that expanded to $27.2 billion in October, the most since July.
• Hedge Funds, Institutions to Increase Commodity Investments, Barclays Says. About 76 percent of the respondents surveyed at a Barclays conference yesterday in New York predicted a bigger inflow into direct commodity investments than in 2010. New investments this year were $50 billion, the London-based bank said.
• Fink Builds Wall Street's Brain as BlackRock(BLK) Marks Rise of Asset Managers. As chairman and chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., Larry Fink controls more money than Germany has gross domestic product. BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset-management firm, a $3.45 trillion powerhouse that is Wall Street’s largest trading partner, set to pay investment banks $1 billion in fees this year. It manages $1.4 trillion for public pension funds in states including New York, New Jersey and California, and invests $240 billion for central banks and sovereign wealth funds such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. The company serves as the U.S. Treasury Department’s go-to source for private-sector financial expertise and managed at least $150 billion in toxic assets on behalf of U.S. taxpayers after the 2008 bailouts of American International Group Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. While running the company is a team effort, Fink, 58, is BlackRock’s brain, and BlackRock, increasingly, is Wall Street’s, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Dec. 13 edition.
• Bernanke Pledges Cooperation on Increasing Transparency, Issa Aide Says. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke today pledged to “work cooperatively” with the new head of a House panel who’s seeking to increase disclosure of the central bank’s actions, the lawmaker’s spokesman said. Representative Darrell Issa made it “very clear” in a private meeting with Bernanke that the lawmaker will pursue “an overall agenda intent on making government as transparent as possible,” said Kurt Bardella, spokesman for the California Republican who’s set to chair the House Oversight Committee in January. “Chairman Bernanke certainly signaled that he would be a willing partner in that effort.”
• Community Health(CYH) Makes $7.3 Billion Bid for Tenet(THC). made an unsolicited offer to buy Community Health Systems Inc.Tenet Healthcare Corp. for $7.3 billion in a bid to create the largest hospital operator in the U.S., with 176 hospitals in 30 states. Tenet rejected the offer Dec. 6 as not “remotely fair value” and Community Health has renewed the bid with Tenet’s board, Community Health, based in Franklin, Tennessee, said today in a statement.
• Nobel No-Shows for Award to Dissident Liu Reveal Rising Chinese Influence. Nineteen countries will be absent from today’s ceremony bestowing the Nobel Peace Prize on Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo in the wake of his government’s campaign to portray the award as a western effort to undermine its authority. Those absent will include countries with unelected rulers such as Cuba and Saudi Arabia, Chinese neighbors Kazakhstan and Vietnam, and U.S. allies Colombia and Egypt. Their decision to skip the ceremony in Oslo comes as Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu derided the award as a “farce” bestowed by “clowns” in comments to reporters in Beijing on Dec. 7.
• China's November Inflation May Be 5.1%, Two Newspapers Say. China’s inflation may have accelerated to 5.1 percent in November, the fastest pace since July 2008, according to two Chinese newspaper reports today ahead of the release of the data tomorrow. The reported pace would top the median 4.7 percent forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and bolster the case for the central bank to raise interest rates.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Markets Defy Fed's Bond-Buying Push. The Federal Reserve's decision to spur the economy with a $600 billion round of bond buying was among the most controversial in its history. Fed officials quarreled over whether to proceed. At worst, some members argued, such a move risked whipping inflation to dangerous levels. Six weeks later, the bond program looks more like a water pistol than a cannon. The purchases of government bonds are meant to drive down long-term interest rates, which did happen in the lead-up to the Nov. 3 move. But since then, long-term rates are up sharply.
• CFTC Hammers Out Corporate Exemption for Derivatives Rule. Federal regulators on Thursday proposed rules for spelling out how companies like Shell Energy North America and Caterpillar Inc. can avoid potentially costly new derivatives rules. The proposal by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was approved in a 3-2 vote and will now be issued for public comment. A second vote is needed to implement it.
• Companies Cling to Cash. Corporate America's cash pile has hit its highest level in half a century. Rather than pouring their money into building plants or hiring workers, nonfinancial companies in the U.S. were sitting on $1.93 trillion in cash and other liquid assets at the end of September, up from $1.8 trillion at the end of June, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. Cash accounted for 7.4% of the companies' total assets—the largest share since 1959.
• The Puzzling Assault on For-Profit Colleges. President Obama's commitment to serve nontraditional students—low income, working, mid-career—is clear. He demonstrated that again this week by visiting a community college in North Carolina. The reason, in his words: "Folks who have never gone to college have an unemployment rate nearly double of those who have gone to college." That's why it's so disappointing that the Department of Education is pursuing regulations that threaten to cripple or close down for-profit colleges and career schools that provide advancement opportunities for millions of poor and minority students.
• Once-Cautious Carlyle Gets in Game. Four years and a private-equity-boom ago, Carlyle Group LP co-founder William Conway sounded a cautionary note about buyout-market froth, as competitors pursued what proved to be market-top deals. Not so now. As other private-equity players fret about high takeover prices and a weak economy, Carlyle is in the midst of one of the biggest deal splurges in its 23-year history, a spree driven in part by an unusually bullish outlook for the U.S. and parts of the global economy. "We think the economy is stronger than most [people do], so we're putting more money to work," said Mr. Conway.
• Why I Support the Ryan Roadmap by Sarah Palin. Let's not settle for the big-government status quo, which is what the president's deficit commission offers.

CNBC:

• Video Game Sales Surge Once More in November. "Black Ops" brought some black ink for the video game industry in November. Retail software sales posted impressive growth over 2009 numbers, marking the first time the industry has posted back-to-back gains this year.

Business Insider:

• Friday's Front Page Story: "What to Do When the Shells Hit Seoul". The US press mainly focuses on the fragile Korean situation after escalation, but don't presume things have calmed down, just because you may not have read about anything for a couple of days. The Korean papers are filled Friday with talk of war, including this column in the Chosun Ilbo suggesting that war is a real possibility, and this full page feature in the Joong Ang Daily titled What To Do When The Shells Hit Seoul. Note the use of the word "when" not "if." What does one do? Well, it seems that Seoul is pretty prepared:

Politico:

• Sarah Palin-Friendly Sites Attacked. Websites supportive of former Alaska GOP Gov. Sarah Palin came under cyberattack Thursday, a day after Palin’s own site was briefly taken down by hackers, POLITICO has learned.
• Obama 'Confident' Amid Dem Tax Revolt. The House Democratic Caucus voted Thursday to oppose President Barack Obama’s tax plan, throwing into flux weeks of negotiations on an issue that has turned many congressional Democrats against the White House. But in an interview with NPR Thursday, Obama said he still expected a final agreement that would continue the Bush tax cuts beyond their scheduled Dec. 31 expiration date, despite the protests in the House.
  
• 'Don't Ask' Repeal Fails in Senate. A key legislative opportunity to repeal the military’s ban on gays in uniform, which President Barack Obama vowed would be dismantled “on my watch,” fell victim to partisan wrangling and the time pressures of the lame-duck session Thursday afternoon.
  

USA Today:

• Gas Prices on Track for Unseasonable Spike. Motorists, brace yourselves for a lump of coal this holiday season: higher-priced gasoline. Nationwide, a gallon of regular unleaded gas averaged $2.975 on Thursday and more than $3 a gallon in 20 states. That's up nearly 10 cents the past week and 34 cents higher than December 2009, AAA spokesman Troy Green says. Benchmark crude oil opens today at $88.37 a barrel. If crude crosses $90 for the first time since 2008 and continues to rise, as many industry experts forecast, the average price of regular unleaded could hit $3.15 or higher by year's end. $3 a gallon gas will pinch some consumers. "If they have to pay more for gas, they'll have less to spend on other things," Green says.
• Stock Forecasters Predict Market Gains in 2011. An early peek at Wall Street stock market forecasts for 2011 points to more upside for U.S. stocks, with strategists at major firms predicting gains ranging from 5% to 15%.

Reuters:

• PIMCO Ups US Economic Growth Forecast On Tax Deal. Pacific Investment Management Co, which runs the world's biggest bond fund, is revising its growth forecast for the United States next year after President Barack Obama's tax-cut compromise, Chief Executive Mohamed El-Erian told Reuters late Thursday. PIMCO sees the economy growing 3 percent to 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the same period of this year. That compares with its previous estimate for 2 percent to 2.5 percent growth. "We revised this week our outlook for U.S. growth in 2011 taking into account Monday's announcement on additional fiscal stimulus measures," El-Erian said in an interview.
• Beckman Coulter(BEC) Puts Itself Up For Sale. Beckman Coulter Inc, maker of diagnostic instruments used in clinical testing, has put itself up for sale and could fetch more than $5 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
• National Semi(NSM) Guides Low But Sees End of Correction.
  
• Netflix(NFLX), Three Others to Join the S&P 500.
• U.S. Fed's Balance Sheet Grows to Record Size. The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded for a sixth straight week, bolstered to a record by purchases of Treasuries, Fed data released on Thursday showed. The balance sheet, a broad gauge of Fed lending to the financial system, rose to $2.364 trillion in the week ended Dec. 8 from $2.329 trillion the previous week. Last month, the U.S. central bank began a second bout of quantitative easing, known as QE2. The Fed expects to buy about $600 billion in U.S. government debt purchases over an eight-month period in an effort to stimulate the economy.
• Coffee Costs Hit Green Mountain's(GMCR) Outlook, Shares Sink. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc gave a weak first-quarter profit outlook due to higher marketing costs and an expected volatility in coffee costs -- becoming the latest coffee company to take a hit due to soaring prices. Shares of the company fell 18 percent after the bell.
• NYSE Short Interest Slips in Late November, Nasdaq Dips.
  

Financial Times:

• Issa Says Reform Bill 'Soft' on Hedge Funds. The incoming Republican chairman of the House oversight committee said Wall Street owed it to Americans to be more transparent.
• Goldman(GS) CDS Trading Activities Under Fire. Goldman Sachs ’ trading activities in the credit insurance market in 2007 have come under attack from a US senator after e-mails revealed a senior trader urged colleagues to “kill” some investors’ positions. Mr Levin said that in May 2007, Goldman adopted a “short squeeze strategy” to drive down the price of credit default swaps on troubled mortgage-backed securities. Mr Levin alleged the move, which Goldman denies, would have enabled the bank “to purchase the CDSs for itself at artificially low prices”.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (CIEN), target $24.

Wells Fargo:

• Rated (PLX), (GILD) and (VRTX) Outperform.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.50 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 104.75 -1.25 basis points.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.24%
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note
  

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for October is estimated at -$43.8B versus -$44.0B in September.
• The Import Price Index for November is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.9% gain in October.
  

9:55 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December is estimated to rise to 72.5 versus 71.6 in November.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for November is estimated at -$138.0B versus -$120.3B in October.

Upcoming Splits

• (ROL) 3-for-2
• (RES) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (HSC) analyst meeting, (CVVT) analyst day, JPMorgan Ag Conference and the Goldman Sachs Auto Conference could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by automaker and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Short-Covering, Falling Long-Term Rates, Seasonal Strength

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Rising
  
• Volume: Slightly Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.46 -1.58%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 206.0 +108.08%
  
• Total Put/Call .67 -8.22%
  
• NYSE Arms .50 +18.40%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.52 bps -1.64%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 139.61 bps +5.01%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 179.50 bps +.75%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.88 bps +1.33%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -1 bp
  
• TED Spread 17.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% -1 bp
  
• Yield Curve 259.0 -4 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $165.40/Metric Tonne +.24%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.0 +.1 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15% -5 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech and Medical long positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM), (QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades slightly higher despite recent equity gains, rising eurozone debt angst, China inflation worries, US tax policy uncertainty and US municipal debt concerns. On the positive side, Road & Rail, Bank, Telecom, Networking and Coal shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. Cyclicals and small-caps are outperforming. (XLF) has traded very well throughout the day. Lumber is jumping +3.65% and is breaking above its 50-day moving average convincingly. The 10-year yield is falling -6 bps to 3.21%.On the negative side, Education, Restaurant and Homebuilding shares are under pressure, falling more than 1.0%. (IYR) has been heavy throughout the day and tech stocks are underperforming. The Greece sovereign cds is jumping +3.48% to 956.47 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is surging +6.45% to 324.19 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is climbing +6.56% to 206.17 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is rising +4.2% to 450.03 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is gaining +3.24% to 201.66 bps. The European Financial Sector CDS Index continues to trend higher and the US Muni CDS Index is rising another +4.01% to 207.50 bps. Some key investor sentiment gauges remain a bit too bullish. The AAII % Bulls rose to 53.05 this week, while the % Bears fell to 22.56. Despite a number of potential negative equity catalysts, the bears remain unable to gain any traction and stocks continue to consolidate recent gains in a healthy fashion. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on falling long-term rates, short-covering, less financial sector pessimism and seasonal strength.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Bank Debt Riskiest to Junk Bonds Since '05 on Sovereign Concern. Subordinated financial bonds are the riskiest in almost six years relative to corporate junk debt in Europe on concern investors will be forced to share in the cost of bailing out profligate governments. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Subordinated Financial Index tied to bonds of 25 European banks and insurers jumped 4.5 basis points to 314.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The measure of swaps on the debt of companies with mostly high-yield ratings fell 9 basis points to 448, and the gap between the two risk gauges is the narrowest since March 2005. Investors are speculating European policy makers will be unable to contain the region’s worsening deficit crisis and that banks, the biggest holders of their debt, will be saddled with losses. Anglo Irish Bank Corp.’s subordinated bonds were valued as low as 18.25 percent of face value at an auction to settle credit-default swaps today. Swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of mostly junk companies dropped 9 basis points to 448, according to JPMorgan prices at 11:30 a.m. in London. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings fell 1 basis point to 104.75, JPMorgan prices show. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of swaps on senior debt of 25 banks and insurers declined 0.5 basis points to 154.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell 17,000 to 421,000 Last Week. The number of workers filing first- time claims for unemployment insurance payments fell last week in the U.S., showing the labor market continues to improve. Applications for jobless benefits decreased to 421,000, less than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from a revised 438,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure, dropped to the lowest level in more than two years. The four-week moving average fell to 427,500, the lowest since August 2008, from 431,500. The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits fell by 191,000 in the week ended Nov. 27 to 4.09 million. They were forecast to fall to 4.24 million. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, dropped to 3.2 percent in the week ended Nov. 27, the lowest in two years, today’s report showed.
• Household Worth in U.S. Rose by $1.2 Trillion in 3rd Quarter. Household wealth in the U.S. rose by $1.2 trillion in the third quarter as share prices jumped in response to an improving economy. Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased to $54.9 trillion from $53.7 trillion in the previous three months, according to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report issued today in Washington. American families also cut debt for a 10th consecutive quarter.
• Dollar Climbs After Fitch Cuts Ireland's Ratings. The dollar climbed against the euro after the credit ratings agency Fitch slashed Ireland's debt rating, saying its big bailout showed its debt crisis was worse than had been known. The move highlighted the euro region's problems and prompted traders to resume selling euros. The European Union bailed out Ireland because of its soaring borrowing costs following the rescue of Greece in May. Investors are nervous that Portugal or Spain may be next, and that the current 750 billion euro fund would not be big enough to rescue Spain.
• Dell(DELL) in Talks to Buy Compellent(CML) for About $876 Million to Add Data Storage. Dell Inc., the world’s third-largest personal-computer maker, is in exclusive talks to buy Compellent Technologies Inc. for about $876 million, a discount to the data-storage maker’s current market value. Dell would acquire all of the outstanding common stock of Compellent for $27.50 apiece in cash, the companies said today in a statement. That’s 18 percent less than yesterday’s closing price for Compellent. The stock had almost doubled in the past two months before today on speculation it will get bought.
• Citigroup(C) Adds Hedge-Fund Service Amid Scrutiny, Regulation. Citigroup Inc., the third-biggest U.S. bank, said its prime finance business is starting a consulting service for hedge funds amid increased scrutiny from investors and new requirements from regulators.
• Gold Futures Rebound as Drop From Record Price Spurs Demand From Investors. “The bottom line is that investors are losing faith in paper money,” said Lannie Cohen, the president of Capitol Commodity Services Inc. in Indianapolis. “Gold will continue to act as the currency of choice.” Gold futures for February delivery rose $1.50, or 0.1 percent, to $1,384.70 at 11:25 a.m. on the Comex in New York. “If you were in Europe, you’d be buying gold to preserve your wealth,” Cohen said. The metal priced in euros reached a record on Dec. 7 as Europe’s debt woes spurred demand.
• Most Americans Say They're Worse Off Since Obama Took Office, Poll Shows. More than 50 percent of Americans say they are worse off now than they were two years ago when President Barack Obama took office, and two-thirds believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a Bloomberg National Poll shows. The survey, conducted Dec. 4-7, finds that 51 percent of respondents think their situation has deteriorated, compared with 35 percent who say they’re doing better. Americans have grown more downbeat about the country’s future in just the last couple of months, the poll shows. The pessimism cuts across political parties and age groups, and is common to both sexes. Sixty-six percent say the nation is headed in the wrong direction. That’s up from 62 percent who felt that way in an October poll and is the worst reading since the Bloomberg National Poll began in September 2009.
• Kim Jong Il Meets Chinese Diplomat for Talks Over Korea, Reaches Consensus. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and China’s top diplomat “reached important consensus” today on issues of the Korean peninsula, where tensions have heightened since the North’s attack on South Korean soil. Kim met with State Councilor Dai Bingguo in Pyongyang today and had “frank and in-depth talks,” China’s Foreign Ministry said on its website, without providing details. The two discussed “ways to further solidify cooperative relations,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported.
• Roach Says China Should 'Aggressively' Quell Inflation to Help Consumers. China should move “aggressively” to crack down on inflation to help the nation become a more consumption-driven economy, said Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman at Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. “The longer government policy makers wait to address inflation, the tougher it will be to deal with” structural changes, Roach told reporters in Hong Kong today. “My advice is move quickly and aggressively to deal with inflation, so that you can get on with the most important transition in China, which is stimulating internal private consumption.”
• Ron Paul, Author of 'End the Fed,' to Lead Fed Oversight Panel. Representative Ron Paul, Texas Republican and author of “End the Fed,” will take control of the House subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve.
• Life Expectancy in the U.S. Drops for First Time Since 1993. Life expectancy of Americans fell for the first time in 15 years, as the nation’s oldest adults died from heart disease, cancer and respiratory ailments, according to a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. Based on data from 2008, the latest available, life expectancy in the U.S. fell 36.5 days from 2007 to 77.8 years, according to the report released today.
• SEC Considering Curbs on Algorithms Blamed for May 6 Crash, Official Says. The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering whether to require automated trading programs known as algorithms to run risk checks that prevent errant executions, according to David Shillman, an associate director in the agency’s division of trading and markets. Regulators are concerned algorithms could act “too aggressively,” causing a security’s price to move rapidly, Shillman said. Safety checks could prevent algorithms, which execute larger trades by slicing them into pieces, from destabilizing markets. The SEC says an algorithmic trade of futures that gave no regard to prices or timing helped drive the May 6 crash that erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. equities in less than 20 minutes. The SEC is considering whether there should be a “throttle on an algorithm that prevents overly aggressive moves without checks on price or time,” Shillman said at an Investment Company Institute conference in New York today. Another idea regulators are evaluating is whether “baseline qualifications” should be required for individuals who design and use trading algorithms. Shillman said this is a separate issue from the notion of a throttle.
• Citigroup(C) Names Obama's Orszag Vice Chairman of Investment Bank. Citigroup Inc., the biggest bailout recipient among U.S. banks during the financial crisis, hired former White House Budget Director Peter Orszag to be vice chairman of its investment-banking division.
• Chubb(CHB) Plans to Buy Back 30 Million Shares in Insurer's Biggest Repurchase. Chubb Corp., the insurer of commercial property and high-end homes, said it will repurchase 30 million shares, the company’s biggest buyback, after raising its forecast for full-year profit. The repurchase program equals almost 10 percent of the 304.9 million Chubb shares outstanding as of Sept. 30 and would cost about $1.8 billion at the Warren, New Jersey-based company’s $58.70 closing price yesterday. Chubb’s largest buyback announced before today was in December 2007 when the company said it would repurchase 28 million shares.

CNBC:

• Mortgage Rates Hit Six Month High, Threatening Housing. Rates on fixed mortgages rose for the fourth straight week this week, hitting 4.61 percent. The surge could slow refinancings and further hamper the housing market.
• Government, Fannie Mae Considering Help for Housing Investors.
  

Business Insider:

• Try as She Might Megyn Kelly Can't Break The Resolve of Code Pink Woman Who Thinks WikiLeaks Leaker is Heroic.

Zero Hedge:

• Car Containing Prince Charles and Camilla Attacked in London by Angry Protesters.

New York Post:

• Hulu's in a Netflix(NFLX) Headlock. Netflix's muscle-flexing deal yesterday with Disney not only reinforces the fact that it is a programming distributor to be reckoned with, it is also forcing rival Hulu to reconfigure its business plan, sources tell The Post. Hulu CEO Jason Kilar must either step up and acquire additional distribution rights to compete head-to-head with Netflix or drop its fee and focus on free offerings, the sources said.

Politico:

• House Dems Reject Tax Deal. The House Democratic Caucus voted to oppose President Barack Obama’s tax plan, throwing into flux weeks of negotiations on an issue that has turned many congressional Democrats against the White House. Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio offered a resolution in a closed Democratic caucus meeting Thursday morning that said Democrats would oppose the bill in its current form.

Reuters:

• China, HK Should Rein in Property Prices - IMF Paper. China and Hong Kong need to implement more measures to rein in the threat of property bubbles forming in certain sectors of their markets, the International Monetary Fund said in a working paper citing the views of economists. China and Hong Kong, and many other markets in Asia including Singapore and India, face asset bubble threats, especially in the property sector, from strong economic growth and cheap money flowing in from the West driven by ultra-easy monetary policies. "The mass-market segment in a few large cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the luxury segment in Beijing and Nanjing appear to be increasingly disconnected from fundamentals," the IMF said in the paper released on Friday. "(Cooling prices) will require an increase in real interest rates, a higher carrying cost of homeownership (such as can be achieved by a broad-based property tax), and, in the case of China, broad financial market development to alternative investment vehicles to housing."
• Moody's May Cut Some Portuguese Banks' Ratings.
  

El Universal:

• Mexican Newspaper: Chávez's family has $137 million in US accounts. According to DEA reports, Venezuela’s presidential family holds five bank accounts in the United States. La Razón reported that "under the umbrella of power, the Venezuelan president's family has a life style that includes jewelry, cars, travels and even weapons, in contrast to Chávez's anti-capitalist discourse."
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth (+.02%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -1.91% 2) Defense -.84% 3) Computer Service -.83%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CMTL, SNH, SRX, TITN, MATK, HMIN, GSIC, TSTC, OXM, HDB and EQY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GAP 2) GDXJ 3) AIG 4) DF 5) SVU
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ELON 2) MS 3) V 4) EXC 5) EP
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value (+.47%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +1.16% 2) Banks +1.04% 3) Coal +.76%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AIG, IVN, BCS, BAC, PFG, CYMI, SWC, PUK, MIPS, VRNT, PZE, LUK, FO, MXWL, LULU, ASML, DMND, TEVA, NTLS, NXPI, CIEN, HELE, HITK, ENOC, GIII, CTCT, HOLI, LCAPA, GHDX, ASYS, AVGO, CHBT, FMCN, ARB, SFD and OLP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EK 2) CML 3) LULU 4) BBT 5) CIEN
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HD 2) FO 3) BDC 4) EQR 5) COST
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Libya's Ghanem Expects OPEC Quota Rollover, Expects $100 Crude Oil 'Soon'. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep its production quotas unchanged as oil gets ready to hit $100 a barrel, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., said. OPEC, which is scheduled to gather Dec. 11 in Quito, Ecuador, will probably agree to a quota rollover and will focus on discussing compliance during this meeting, Ghanem said today at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport.
• Copper Gains to Record in London on Concern Fed May Extend Asset Purchases. Copper climbed to a record in London and advanced to a 31-month high in New York on concern that the Federal Reserve may extend asset purchases to support the economy, driving the dollar lower and boosting the appeal of commodities as alternative investments. The metal for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.6 percent to $9,066 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, surpassing the previous peak of $9,044 on Dec. 7. It traded at $9,037.25 at 11:30 a.m. Singapore time, up 23 percent this year.
• Obama Proposes Easing Export Controls on 37 Allies. The Obama administration proposed easing controls on the export of technology items that may be used for military purposes to 37 allies, including Canada, Japan, Germany and France. The U.S. requires exporters to obtain a license to sell civilian technology, such as aircraft parts and encryption software, that also can be used for military purposes. The restrictions vary based on U.S. relations with the government, and those rules are administered by the Commerce Department and State Department.
• India's Inflation Holds Above 'Tolerance Level,' Subbarao Says. India’s inflation remains above “tolerance level,” central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said ahead of the monetary policy announcement next week. “Inflation is coming down but is still above the RBI’s tolerance level,” Subbarao told reporters in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata yesterday. India’s benchmark wholesale-price inflation cooled to a nine-month low of 8.58 percent in October. The Reserve Bank of India aims to slow inflation to between 4 percent and 4.5 percent.
• Apple(AAPL) Displaces Samsung on Home Turf With iPhone. For more than a decade, Kim Jung Yeon only bought phones from Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc., passing on best sellers made by non-Korean companies such as Motorola Inc.’s Razr. Her loyalty ended with Apple Inc.’s iPhone. “The iPhone has a cool design and I love the feel and grip of the phone,” said the 37-year-old Web designer in Seoul, who bought the device last year, and enjoys using applications about food recipes. “I don’t see any reason why I should return to LG or Samsung phones again if I buy another smartphone.”
• LBO Defaults to Climb as Debt Costs Top Growth, Mudrick Says. Defaults on speculative-grade debt will climb in the next five years as companies bought by private-equity firms before markets seized up in 2008 struggle to boost earnings, said hedge-fund manager Jason Mudrick. Borrowers may renege on $150 billion to $250 billion of leveraged loans and high-yield bonds due by 2015, or between 15 percent and 25 percent of the amount maturing, said Mudrick, president of Mudrick Capital Management LP, at a briefing in New York. The former money manager at Contrarian Capital Management LLC, who started his fund in July 2009 and oversees $150 million, is predicting the rise in defaults even as Moody’s Investors Service said the 12-month rate in the U.S. fell to 3.5 percent in November from 14.7 percent last year.
• New York Teachers' Union Fights City Over Release of Performance Reports. The United Federation of Teachers went to court to stop the New York City Department of Education from publicly disclosing the names and performance reports of teachers in the biggest U.S. public school system.
• Mullen Says 'Too Much at Stake' for China 'Myopia' on North Korea. China’s reluctance to try and persuade North Korea to abandon its aggressive stance in Asia imperils regional stability, said U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. China is “unwilling” to use its influence as the North’s biggest ally to curtail Kim Jong Il’s regime, Mullen told reporters today in Tokyo, reiterating earlier remarks. North Korea “has been unable” to “recognize the risks and the costs of miscalculation,” Mullen said. “China must lead and guide North Korea to a better future. There is too much at stake for this sort of myopia.” “What once was unusual is becoming all too routine,” he said. “I speak mainly here of North Korean aggression that threatens all of us, but it applies as well to a wide range of economic, social and political changes throughout the region. As threats evolve, so too must we.”

Wall Street Journal:

• House Democrats Seek Boost In Regulator Funding. A budget bill unveiled by U.S. House Democrats on Wednesday contains big funding boosts for federal securities and futures regulators working to erect a vast regime for the over-the-counter derivatives market.
• Traders Ready for Silver to Tarnish. There is a tinge of worry about silver in the options market. Bearish put options have been unusually active lately in the iShares Silver Trust, a popular exchange-traded fund tracking the metal that broke a new 52-week high on Tuesday. Puts convey the right to sell shares at a fixed price on or before an agreed-upon date. Nearly the same number of puts as bullish call options to buy the fund changed hands Wednesday, according to Trade Alert, following similar action in the previous session.
• Investor Survey Says: Bet Oppositely. When the American Association of Individual Investors' weekly gauge of sentiment hits the tape early Thursday, much of Wall Street will be ready to pore over the numbers.
• North Korea Claims Waters Around Shelled Island. North Korea state media on Thursday issued a statement that claimed possession of all waters around South Korea-controlled Yeonpyeong Island, clarifying for the first time that its Nov. 23 attack of the island was motivated by a different view of the inter-Korean maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea than is widely held.

CNBC:

• 'Shove It' Indicator Turns Positive: More People Quitting. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Julian Assange May Have The Files For Every Single Prisoner In Guantanamo. Evidently, what's worrisome to government officials is evidence that GITMO prisoners have been released, despite clear evidence of their posing an ongoing threat.
• Treasury to Sell $10 Billion in AIG(AIG) Shares, Company to Recapitalize.
• Glenn Beck: Hey George Soros, Here's How I'd Create a Dictatorship! (video)
  

Zero Hedge:

• Department of Justice "Crackdown" on Wall Street is Just a P.R. Stunt Targeting Small-Time Crooks.
• Watch Latest Farcical Senate Hearing on Flash Crash. (video)
• 31 Consecutive Outflows From Domestic Equity Funds. (graphs)
  

NY Times:

• Morgan Stanley(MS) Aims to Rein in Executive Pay.

CNN Money:

• MasterCard(MA), Visa(V) Targeted in Apparent Cyberattack. The corporate websites of Visa and MasterCard were inaccessible at times Wednesday due to an apparent cyberattack by purported Wikileaks backers. Messages posted on Twitter indicated the attacks maybe be in response to recent moves by Visa and Mastercard against WikiLeaks, the website that recently released thousands of secret U.S. State Department documents.

Politico:

• Tax Deal Gains Steam Toward Passage. A wave of new Democratic support Wednesday signaled that President Barack Obama’s deal to renew the Bush tax cuts would make it through Congress, as long as most Republicans lined up behind it as expected. With Democrats in both chambers still angry about parts of the package, the administration scrambled to allay concerns and build momentum for the unusual deal with congressional Republicans reached this week. By the end of the day, the measure looked increasingly likely to pass, as Democrats stepped forward one by one to back it.

Reuters:

• Fortress(FIG) CEO Sees Raising $5 Billion of Capital in '10. Hedge fund and private equity firm Fortress Investment Group said that he expects the firm to have raised $5 billion in new capital this year as it works to build relationships with investors globally. The firm's Chief Executive Dan Mudd said at the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference in New York, that the company "should be over" $5 billion in new capital raising through the full year of 2010.
• BlackRock's(BLK) Fink Sees "Very Strong" Q4 Profit. BlackRock Inc, the world's largest money manager, will report "very strong" earnings and profit margins for the fourth quarter, Chief Executive Laurence Fink said on Wednesday.
• Fed Said to Unveil Debit-Card Fee Limits Next Week. The Federal Reserve is expected to unveil a proposed rule next week that would limit the transaction fees that banks can charge retailers when a customer uses a debit card, according to two industry sources familiar with the matter.

Financial Times:

• Merkel Seeks Calm After Juncker E-Bond Blast. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has called for calm in the European Union after an angry attack by Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg, who accused Berlin of being “un-European” and “a bit simple” in making some areas “taboo” in EU negotiations. Amid signs of increasing tension between eurozone leaders over how to cope with the sovereign debt crisis that has undermined their common currency, Ms Merkel urged her fellow EU leaders to concentrate on reaching a good decision for the future of the euro at their summit in Brussels next week. At the same time she repeated her rejection of Mr Juncker’s proposal for jointly guaranteed eurobonds to help finance the most debt-laden members of the currency union. “The discussion does not help us,” she said after meeting Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish prime minister.

Telegraph:

• EU's Michel Barnier Unveils Clampdown on Derivatives, Bonds and Commodities Markets.

The Guardian:

• Allied Irish Banks to Pay €40m bonuses despite bailout. Stricken Allied Irish Banks says court case forces it to give out bonuses while Ireland's taxpayers suffer. Stricken Allied Irish Banks is preparing to hand out €40m (£34m) of bonuses next week – despite being on the brink of receiving another emergency bailout from the Irish government. As many as 2,400 bankers in its Dublin capital markets division are to receive the payments on 17 December under agreements struck with the bank in 2008. The bank, 19% owned by Ireland's taxpayers but expected to reach 95% state-ownership, had originally been blocked from making the payments under one of the government's bailout programmes.

Shanghai Daily:

• New homes in major Chinese cities are "overpriced" by an average of 30%, citing the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' annual housing report released yesterday. The report said prices of new properties in Fuzhou in the southeastern seaboard province of Fujian were most inflated with a "price-bubble index" of .703. Hangzhou in Zhejiang province and Nanning in the Guangxi region were second and third.

Oriental Morning Post:

• China's three commodities exchanges in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou are considering increasing contract sizes to curb speculation, citing managers at futures brokerages. Large contract sizes require more funds to trade.

21st Century Business Herald:

• Former Chinese central bank deputy governor Wu Xiaoling said banks' reserve ratio should be raised more frequently while there are large foreign exchange inflows. There is still room to further raise reserve ratios, Wu said.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (GLW), target $22.50.
• Reiterated Sell on (GNW), target $13.

Oppenheimer:

• Rated (VPRT) Outperform, target $55.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.50 unch.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 106.0 +1.75 basis points.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.42%
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CIEN)/-.16
• (GRB)/.08
• (SFD)/.56
• (JW/A)/.95
• (BF/B)/1.00
• (NSM)/.32
• (PLL)/.50
• (GMCR)/.20
• (BGP)/-.51
• (ESL)/1.20

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 425K versus 436K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4237K versus 4270K prior.

10:00 am EST'

• Wholesale Inventories for October are estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.5% gain in September.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Goldman Sachs Automotive Conference, Lazard Cloud Computing Summit, Barclays Tech Conference, (BFB) analyst conference, (AKAM) investor summit, (DPZ) analyst meeting, (DLR) investor day, (NUAN) analyst day, (PFG) investor day and the (UTX) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.