Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as US debt/tax hike worries, financial sector pessimism, eurozone debt angst, global growth concerns and emerging market inflation fears offset short-covering, bargain-hunting, buyout/buyback speculation and falling food/energy prices. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mostly bearish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,292.28 -7.19%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,199.38 -7.19%
  
• DJIA 11,444.60 -5.75%
  
• NASDAQ 2,532.41 -8.13%
  
• Russell 2000 714.63 -10.34%
  
• Wilshire 5000 12,455.70 -7.86%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 558.15 -7.45%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 595.45 -7.86%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 702.02 -5.16%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 901.86 -10.84%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 586.85 -7.58%
  
• Transports 4,693.59 -9.46%
  
• Utilities 414.72 -3.81%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.99 -8.43%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,022.17 -3.04%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 891.51 -1.21%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 592.82 +4.71%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 117,556 -4.42%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,304 -894
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 26.0 -23.5%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 147,376 -7.17%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,528,978 +1.48%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.24 +2.48%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.25 -16.67%
  
• ISE Sentiment 84.0 -28.21%
  
• NYSE Arms .57 -52.10%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 32.0 +26.73%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.35 +5.38%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 9,702.15 -5.96%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.568 Trillion-2.50%
  
• AAII % Bulls 27.16 -28.22%
  
• AAII % Bears 49.85 +58.66%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 326.80 -4.47%
  
• Crude Oil 86.88 -9.37%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 280.52 -8.30%
  
• Natural Gas 3.94 -5.04%
  
• Heating Oil 294.17 -5.13%
  
• Gold 1,651.80 +1.40%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 247.85 -6.36%
  
• Copper 411.70 -8.20%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 420.0 USD/Ton +.60%
  
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,845 Yuan/Ton +.27%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,678.24 -1.11%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.1% +10 basis points
  
• S&P 500 EPS Estimates 1 Year Mean 96.11 +.25%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -76.10 +15.3 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 9.7% chance of no change, 90.3% chance of 25 basis point cut on 8/9
• US Dollar Index 74.60 +1.16%
  
• Yield Curve 227.0 -17 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.56% -24 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.851 Trillion +.12%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.39 -10.74%
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 201.0 +3.35%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 296.17 +4.10%
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 212.92 +26.08%
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 99.87 +4.03%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 89.65 -1.37%
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24% -20 basis points
  
• TED Spread 27.0 +11 basis points
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 105.78 +10.79%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 176.86 +17.27%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 248.81 +17.14%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 199.0 unch.
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.998 Trillion +1.08%
  
• Business Loans 650.50 +.26%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 407,800 -1.60%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.0% +10 basis points
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.39% -16 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 565.30 +7.06%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -47.60 -.8 point
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +4.30% +10 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.70/gallon -.01/gallon
  
• U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 17.0% above normal
• Baltic Dry Index 1,268 +.32%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 unch.
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 240,525 +3.59%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -7.45%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -10.89%

Leading Sectors

• Tobacco -.95%
• Telecom -2.23%
  
• Utilities -3.81%
• Restaurants -4.09%
• Gold & Silver -4.74%

Lagging Sectors

• Homebuilding -13.17%
• Alternative Energy -13.74%
  
• Oil Service -13.84%
• Oil Tankers -15.47
  
• Coal -23.35%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• WWWW, GNET, EM, JCOM, EXLS, QLTY, ABCO, AMAG, SNCR and CCC
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (150)

• FFBC, SAM, AGN, BKI, INT, ICGE, GBCI, SFSF, ACTV, VSI, MD, PDCO, COLM, CCI, TRLG, DVA, PWR, GTY, BFS, MXWL, IRWD, BMC, MSCI, MDRX, CMP, ACC, BIO, VCI, PKI, EXPD, DECK, NATI, WXS, TXRH, CVH, ABAX, CFN, DRIV, FO, ENV, CI, HGR, CVG, NVE, FNFG, FARO, HAE, PLL, MGLN, P, MLM, CAR, BKE, AMSF, HCC, CCO, LEG, CTCT, OIS, IPCM, TWTC, FDML, JAZZ, LLL, PPO, STE, MAPP, WCG, CNC, PNK, CNA, LHCG, MANT, MDCA, ZOLL, CACI, VOLC, MKTG, ROK, MTX, IVC, ALGN, AAWW, NTRI, HCN, HHC, OSTK, EPR, CSGS, AWI, BBOX, EXPR, PH, HRC, VC, IPHS, GMT, ACOM, MASI, GET, ESE, JBT, HTZ, CYH, VQ, GTLS, CBL, LORL, RRD, CRL, HNT, HS, GGP, LAMR, RLOC, ZUMZ, AGP, OHI, IIVI, EXBD, THO, IOSP, WTW, OC, SXCI, DIN, SBRA, AUXL, STRI, CHMT, GTI, XTXI, ARO, SPW, AMED, ENSG, KRO, ATPG, MDR, CGX, CTB, KND, NTKS, HUN, EXH, SCOR, EXAM, KRA, WLT and DNDN
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Global Growth Worries, Financial Sector Pessimism, US Debt Downgrade Worries

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Mixed
  
• Volume: Heavy
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 32.23 +1.80%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 85.0 +21.43%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.29 +.78%
  
• NYSE Arms .57 -87.21%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 105.78 +5.35%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 192.75 +12.37%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 296.17 +.45%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 252.45 +10.46%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 unch.
  
• TED Spread 27.0 +1 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 226.0 +7 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $178.0/Metric Tonne +.06%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -76.10 +11.9 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24% +3 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -15 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +69 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Retail sector longs, emerging market shorts and ETF hedges
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added back some (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is slightly bearish as the S&P 500 could not gain upside traction this afternoon on rising eurozone debt angst, US tax hike/debt downgrade concerns, financial sector pessimism, emerging market inflation fears and global growth worries. On the positive side, Utility, Medical Equipment, Drug, Food, Tobacco, Computer Service and Networking shares are higher on the day. Large-cap growth shares are also holding up well. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is falling -.37%. The 10-year yield is surging +15 bps to 2.55%. The Spain sovereign cds is falling -5.93% to 404.07 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is falling -5.9% to 916.94 bps and the Ireland sovereign cds is falling -8.48% to 771.26 bps. On the negative side, Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Service, Bank, I-Banking, Education, Gaming and REIT shares are under significant pressure, falling more than -1.5%. Gold is +.55%, oil is rising +.55% and Copper is down -2.74%. Rice is rising +.25% and is still near a multi-year high, soaring about +26.0% in less than 1 month. The US price for a gallon of gas is unch. today at $3.70/gallon. It is up .56/gallon in less than 5 months. The Brazil sovereign cds is rising +9.59% to 130.17 bps, the Hungary sovereign cds is soaring +15.94% to 362.78 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is rising +9.7% to 173.33 bps, the France sovereign cds is rising +.65% to 144.83 bps and the Germany sovereign cds is rising +2.60% to 74.21 bps. The Italy sovereign cds has soared +172 bps in 11 days. The Hungary sovereign cds is breaking out. The France sovereign cds is making a new record high again today. The German sovereign cds is hitting another multi-year high and is only 19.0 bps from its Feb. 09 high of 93.0 bps. The Eurozone Financial Sector CDS Index is now only 17.0 bps from its March 09 record high. The 2-Year Euro Swap Spread soared +16 bps today to a multi-year high of 92.25 bps. India's Sensex fell another -2.2% last night, which leaves it down -15.6% ytd. Australia fell -4.2% and is now down -14.0% ytd. Turkey plunged -5.2% and is down -14.8% ytd. Germany's DAX has broken down badly over the last 5 days and is now down -9.8% ytd. Italian stocks are now down -20.6% ytd and are down -28.9% from their Feb. 17th 52-week high. Gauges of investor angst spiked again today, which is a big positive. However, the surge in many key emerging markets cds is a big negative. As well, a number of key European cds rose again today despite a bounce in the currency and optimism over Italy's actions. The rumor that a US debt downgrade was coming after the close today likely kept the lid on a more vigorous upside reversal. Stocks are very oversold near-term and should start bouncing meaningfully by early next week. However, the underlying problems in the eurozone remain and emerging markets growth fears are becoming more pronounced. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, technical buying and bargain-hunting.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value (-.89%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -2.68% 2) Banks -1.54% 3) Education -1.51%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• MED, GLBC, NTLS, GMCR, AIG, C, MSTR, CRZO, SGY, TLEO, TTMI, NILE, SAPE, ASIA, TRGT, XTXI, ITMN, DISH, SIVB, GSM, SBR, DLB, WTW, MGA and NFG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IBKR 2) ONXX 3) NETL 4) SD 5) BRCD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) COGO 2) TTGT 3) SMRT 4) HK 5) DLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-1.41%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Tobacco +1.13% 2) Foods -.47% 3) Utilities -.49%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BLKB, EOG, NANO, ADVS, HANS, UVV, FO, ABB, RAH, PEP, KFT, WWWW, DNDN, SIRO, ALLT, PCLN, LOPE, WPRT, CPTS, SCOR, CHMT, MHK, CBOE and RDK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CSC 2) IAG 3) JAH 4) DVN 5) WTW
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KFT 2) MAT 3) PCLN 4) GOOG 5) CTWS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume