Thursday, September 08, 2011

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Greek Credit Swaps Surge to Record, Signal 91% Chance Nation Will Default. Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt surged to a record, signaling a 91 percent chance the nation will fail to meet debt commitments, after its economy shrank more than previously reported. Five-year contracts on the country’s sovereign bonds jumped 196 basis points to 3,001 basis points, at 3:45 p.m. in London, according to CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market. Gross domestic product shrank 7.3 percent from a year earlier after declining 8.1 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter, the Hellenic Statistical Authority said. Greece’s financial situation is “on a knife’s edge,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers last night, according to parliament’s HIB bulletin. “It’s a combination of Greece continuing to disappoint and probably a growing realization among politicians that they’re throwing good money after bad,” said Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. “They’ve finally woken up to the fact that they’re not going to get this money back.” The default probability, which is based on a standard pricing model, assumes investors would recover 40 percent of the bonds’ face value were Greece to fail to meet its obligations within five years. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments rose 2.5 basis points to 322.5. The gauge is approaching the record close of 327 basis points on Sept. 6. Swaps on Portugal jumped 19 basis points to 1,060, Ireland climbed 18 to 834 and Spain rose five to 396. Greek two-year note yields jumped as much as 85 basis points to a euro-era record 55.76 percent today. The nation’s 10-year yield climbed to an all-time high 20.13 percent.
  • Trichet Opens Path for Further Steps as Euro Region's Growth Forecasts Cut. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said threats to the euro region have worsened and inflation risks have eased, giving officials the option to take further action should the debt crisis worsen. The economy faces “particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks,” Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt today after the ECB left its benchmark rate at 1.5 percent. While monetary policy is still “accommodative,” financing conditions have worsened in parts of the 17-member euro region and the ECB stands ready to pump more cash into markets if needed, he said. The yield on German 10-year bunds fell to a record as some investors speculated the ECB could cut interest rates or open up more emergency credit lines for banks. The spreading debt crisis is sapping confidence in Europe’s financial institutions, driving up market borrowing costs and forced the ECB to widen its bond purchase program to Italy and Spain. “The hiking cycle has been aborted and Trichet even offered some goodies for rate cut fetishists,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels. “A further worsening of the economy and deflationary tendencies could force the ECB’s hand to act. The tightening bias is gone.” The euro dropped as much as 1.1 percent and traded at $1.3952 at 6:19 p.m. in Frankfurt. The currency has depreciated 4 percent against the dollar this year.
  • Trichet Loses Cool on Deutsche Mark Question. Almost 13 years after its demise, the Deutsche mark retains enough potency to haunt Jean-Claude Trichet’s final days as European Central Bank president. Trichet, 68, today lost his cool with a reporter who asked whether Germany should abandon the euro and return to the mark as Europe’s debt crisis roils markets and spooks voters.
  • Solyndra Headquarters Raided by FBI. Solyndra LLC, the bankrupt solar- panel maker that was backed by the Obama administration, is being raided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation today, an agency spokeswoman said. “We’re executing a search warrant jointly” with the Department of Energy inspector general “regarding an investigation,” FBI spokeswoman Julie Sohn said of the raid at the company’s Fremont, California, headquarters offices and plant. Sohn said she couldn’t provide details about the investigation. The company, whose $535 million federal loan guarantee was criticized by Republicans, filed bankruptcy on Sept. 6, six days after shutting down its factory and firing 1,100 people. The U.S. Federal Financing Bank, owned by the U.S. Treasury Department, is the company’s biggest lender, according to court papers. Congressional Democrats have asked the company’s chief executive officer to explain his optimistic projections about its future. Democratic Representatives Henry Waxman of California and Diana DeGette of Colorado said Solyndra Chief Executive Officer Brian Harrison met with them earlier this year and assured them it was in a “strong financial position.” “At that time, he said the company was projected to double its revenues in 2011, there was ‘strong demand in the United States’ for its shipments, and the company was expected to double the megawatts of panel production shipped this year,” Waxman and DeGette wrote in a letter today to Representative Cliff Stearns, a Florida Republican who heads the oversight panel of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
  • Bernanke: Fed Will Weigh Stimulus at Next Meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers will discuss the tools they could use to boost the recovery at their next meeting this month and stand ready to use them if necessary. Policy makers “are prepared to employ these tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability,” Bernanke said in the text of a speech to economists today in Minneapolis.
  • Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climbed by 2,000 to 414,000 Last Week. Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose last week, a sign the labor market is struggling to gain traction more than two years after the recession ended. Jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 414,000 in the week ended Sept. 3, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a drop in claims to 405,000, according to the median forecast. Today’s data showed the four-week moving average, a less- volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 414,750 last week from 411,000. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits remained unchanged at 3 percent in the week ended Aug. 27, today’s report showed.
  • Gold Futures Gain in New York After U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise. Gold gained for the first time in three days after an unexpected rise in U.S. jobless claims spurred demand for the metal as a haven asset. Claims for unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 414,000 in the week ended Sept. 3, the Labor Department said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a drop in claims to 405,000, according to the median forecast. Before today, the metal was up 28 percent this year as waning prospects for global growth boosted investor demand. “Things aren’t looking very positive, and the market continues to remain skittish,” Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at MF Global in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “We need some results to show that jobs will be created.” Gold futures for December delivery gained $34.70, or 1.9 percent, to $1,852.30 an ounce on the Comex at 10:33 a.m. in New York. The price touched a record $1,923.70 on Sept. 6.
  • U.S. Consumer Sentiment at Second Lowest Level of Year in Bloomberg Index. U.S. consumer confidence last week fell to the second-lowest level this year as Americans grew more pessimistic about the world’s largest economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 49.3 in the period to Sept. 4 compared with minus 49.1 the previous week. This year’s low of minus 49.4 was reached in May, when gasoline prices were the highest in three years. While the drop was within the survey’s 3-point margin of error, the index has been stuck below minus 40 -- the level associated with recessions or their aftermath -- since the end of February. Job creation stagnated in August, the unemployment rate held above 9 percent and hourly wages retreated, giving households little to cheer about. Pessimism stretches across social, economic and political lines, posing a threat to consumer spending that accounts for 70 percent of the economy. “Falling sentiment indicates signs of growing distress in the consumer sector,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. The results reflect “a labor market that has seized up and the lagged effects of inflation that is effectively reducing the purchasing power of households.”
  • OECD Slashes Growth Forecasts, Says Rate Cuts May Be Needed. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development slashed its growth forecasts for the U.S. and Japan and said central banks around the world should be ready to ease monetary policy if economies weaken further. The U.S. will grow 1.1 percent in the third quarter and 0.4 percent in the fourth, instead of the 2.9 percent and 3 percent predicted in May, the OECD said today in its interim economic assessment. Japan will expand 4.1 percent in the third quarter before stalling in the fourth, and the three biggest euro economies will grow 1.4 percent and then shrink 0.4 percent.
  • JPMorgan(JPM) Sees Euro Break-Up Hedge in Sales of Italian Bonds. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said selling Italian and Spanish bonds along with bank stocks and debt, and buying dollars and gold may provide the best protection against the “very unlikely” risk of a euro-area collapse. “There are formidable barriers to break-up, which make it less likely, but also mean it would be more disruptive if it did occur,” Seamus Mac Gorain, a strategist in London, wrote in an investor report yesterday. “The financial turmoil and economic impact would be most pronounced in the euro area, arguing for broad underweight euro-area equity and credit.”
  • Illinois Governor Calls for Employee Layoffs to Balance Budget. Illinois needs to lay off more than 1,900 state employees and close some facilities to avoid a partial government shutdown next spring, Democratic Governor Pat Quinn said today. “It’s time for a rendezvous with reality,” Quinn said at a news conference in Chicago. The state “clearly does not have enough money.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • Interview: IMF Mideast Head: Dollar Peg Has Served Gulf States Well. Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf nations that peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar have no reason to drop the link, the International Monetary Fund's director for the Middle East said Wednesday.
  • Deficit Committee Adds a Focus on Jobs.
  • Fed's Plosser: Monetary Policy Can't Help Jobs Market Much Right Now. Monetary policy has little ability to help the U.S. jobs market in current economic circumstances, a top Federal Reserve official said Thursday. “I am really doubtful that monetary policy is a tool that is going to help us very much” to help spur demand and improve hiring in an economy where many households and companies are still looking to cut borrowing levels, rather than to increase them, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
CNBC.com:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
New York Times:
The Detroit News:
  • Health Costs Trip Up UAW, Chrysler. With just a week left until their contract expires, Chrysler Group LLC and the United Auto Workers are still far apart on key issues — including health care cost sharing — according to people close to the negotiations. Talks between the UAW and Chrysler and General Motors Co. have intensified since the beginning of the week, and have now entered a critical stage.
The Daily Caller:
  • Solyndra Officials Made Numerous Trips to the White House, Logs Show. Not only does the now-bankrupt solar energy firm Solyndra have a cozy financial relationship with the Obama administration, company representatives also made numerous visits to the White House to meet with administration officials, The Daily Caller has learned. According to White House visitor logs, between March 12, 2009, and April 14, 2011, Solyndra officials and investors made no fewer than 20 trips to the West Wing. In the week before the administration awarded Solyndra with the first-ever alternative energy loan guarantee on March 20, four separate visits were logged.
Reuters:
  • Greek Economy Suffers, Government Rules Out Euro Zone Exit. Greece ruled out quitting the euro on Thursday, shrugging off warnings by its biggest creditor Germany and yet another set of bad economic figures showing it is struggling under the weight of EU/IMF-imposed austerity. Anger at Greece's failure to meet fiscal targets that are a condition for its international bailout is nearing breaking point in Berlin and other European capitals, with senior German politicians now talking openly about the possibility of Athens exiting the euro zone. Greece is missing fiscal and reform targets set out under the first, 110-billion euro bailout it obtained in May 2010, despite the spending cuts and tax hikes it took to comply. Faced with the threat of its EU partners blocking an 8-billion euro bailout tranche due next month if it does not get its act together, the country's socialist government pledged on Tuesday to step up long-promised budget cuts and asset sales. But economic figures released on Thursday show austerity is stretching the economy to the limit, making it more and more difficult for the country to meet its 2011 budget deficit target of 7.6 percent of GDP, from 10.5 percent last year. GDP contracted at an annual pace of 7.3 percent in the three months to June, from 8.1 percent in the previous quarter, according to seasonally unadjusted figures by statistics agency ELSTAT, while unemployment stayed near record highs. The figures confirm austerity is taking a bigger-than-expected toll on the economy, which is in its third consecutive year of recession. The GDP data showed private consumption dropped by an annual 6.1 percent in the second quarter while investment shrank by 17.9 percent, according to the ELSTAT figures. Construction, once one of the country's strongest growth engines, slumped by an annual 47 percent in terms of volume between January and May. Unemployment fell slightly to 16.0 percent in June, helped by seasonal tourism jobs. But it remained close to a record 16.6 percent it hit the previous month, well above its 11.6 percent level in June 2010. "It appears the rise in the unemployment rate will continue. There are no convincing signs of an imminent peak," said Platon Monokroussos, an economist at EFG Eurobank. Rules that make it hard to hire and fire workers have helped make joblessness among the Greek young more than 15 percentage points higher than the euro area average, according to OECD figures. Unemployment in the 15-24 age category stood at 43 percent in June, almost twice as high as three years ago. "If the (euro zone's) core economies demand that Greece passes further fiscal measures, it could prompt Greece to try to implement another debt restructuring as soon as next year," May said. "Exiting the euro zone is a real possibility."
  • Euro Hits Two-Month Low Vs. Dollar; ECB Signals Pause.
  • German Economy Ministry Opposes Stimulus - Report. Germany's economy ministry opposes new stimulus measures as a way to counter a possible economic downturn, newspaper Die Welt reported on Thursday. Citing a three-page ministry working paper, the daily said the idea had been dismissed by Economy Minister Philipp Roesler, who also heads the Free Democrats, junior coalition partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's government. "Calls for programmes financed by debt, as they are being made somewhat internationally, are counterproductive given the underlying crisis of confidence in indebted countries," Die Welt quoted the report as saying.
  • U.S. Commercial Paper Market Shrinks Again.
Financial Times:
  • Market Turmoil Lands Hedge Funds With Big Losses. August, it now seems likely, will be the industry’s worst month since October 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a worldwide sell-off. It will almost certainly also be one of the top five worst months for the industry since performance data started to be aggregated in 1990. According to the latest provisional figures from Hedge Fund Research, the average hedge fund manager has lost 4.1 per cent in the past four weeks.
Telegraph:
  • 'No Quick Fix for Euro'. (video) Herta von Stiegel, author of The Mountain Within and a former senior executive with JP Morgan and Citibank, tells Robert Miller that a single Eurobond for all 17 members of the single currency bloc is not the solution to the sovereign debt crisis.
DeutschlandFunk radio:
  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Italy's sovereign debt is far too large and that the country must make massive efforts to cut its deficit.
HandelsZeitung:
  • Credit Suisse Group AG may wind down its onshore banking business in the U.S. following pressure from authorities there. The bank will instead concentrate on Asia.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (-1.21%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Banks -2.61% 2) I-Banks -2.53% 3) Coal -2.40%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SI, CLMT, GGAL, TZOO, GIII, TITN, OPEN, MTRX, UNFI, LAYN, AVAV, CASY, MIND, AIRM, ICLR, HITT, ALOG, INDB, ABCO, DNDN, VRSN, BOKF, CPLA, ORCL, EZU, TRC, PLL, MW, MHK, PKI, DG and VSI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) OPEN 2) RRD 3) AGO 4) ECA 5) FXY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) KWK 2) DG 3) TZOO 4) PBI 5) OPEN
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth (+.29%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.89% 2) Steel +1.29% 3) Homebuilders +1.28%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • POWI, GOLD, ITMN, CALP, WPRT, HRBN, SNDK, TTWO, REXX, TKC and PAY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HTZ 2) MU 3) TWX 4) KFT 5) SFD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DVN 2) MW 3) CSCO 4) DRI 5) POWI
Charts:

Thursday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • Trichet May Resist Rate-Cut Calls as Debt Crisis Tightens Money Markets. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will probably resist calls to cut the benchmark interest rate today and may opt instead to increase the supply of cash to euro-area banks as the region’s debt crisis worsens. Policy makers meeting in Frankfurt will keep the key rate at 1.5 percent, according to all 57 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The ECB may lower its inflation and growth forecasts, signaling rates are now on hold after two increases this year. The spreading debt crisis is sapping confidence in European banks and driving up market borrowing costs. “The situation is very, very bad, the money markets have almost stopped functioning,” said Gilles Moec, co-chief European economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “The debate in markets has moved to rate cuts but I doubt it will happen, and one way to buffer the inevitable disappointment would be to reintroduce the 12-month tender.” The ECB announces its rate decision at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt and Trichet holds a press conference 45 minutes later. Separately, the Bank of England will probably keep its key rate at a record low of 0.5 percent and maintain its bond-purchase program at 200 billion pounds ($320 billion).
  • Chinese Developers, Small Caps May Weigh on Equities, Jefferies's Ju Says. Chinese stocks face “challenges” this year because the government is unlikely to ease measures to stem inflation even as global economic growth slows, said Jefferies Group Inc. (JEF)’s head of Hong Kong and China Research. Investors should be cautious on the nation’s property developers as sales may worsen in the next two months, while small-company shares are more vulnerable than their larger peers to a global downturn, said Christie Ju who joined the U.S. investment bank in Hong Kong in January. Ju previously helped Bank of America Corp.’s brokerage unit take the top spots in Institutional Investor’s inaugural All-China Research Team poll and AsiaMoney’s survey of analysts. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese companies available to foreign investors has plunged 17 percent this year amid speculation the government will maintain policies to cool inflation. “Inflation hasn’t really come down as significantly as people expected,” Ju said. “Right now we are still in the tightening cycle. It’s difficult to count on a general loosening cycle such as interest-rate cut and I don’t see that happening in the near term.” The central bank has raised interest rates five times and ordered lenders to set aside more cash as deposit reserves 12 times since the start of 2010 to tame inflation, which jumped to a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July. Jefferies’s Ju said Chinese property stocks haven’t “priced in” the possibility that sales in September and October will worsen amid tighter liquidity. “We are seeing sales starting to decline and mortgage quotas are getting limited,” Ju said. “The situation has not improved, but worsened in the past couple of weeks.” China Vanke Co., the nation’s biggest listed property developer, said sales dropped 13 percent in August from a year ago while Beijing Capital Land Ltd. (2868) said its contracted sales fell 43 percent last month. Chinese small-capitalization stocks may extend their declines given the global economic outlook, Ju said. A ChiNext index of start-up companies has tumbled 21 percent this year on concern monetary tightening will make it more difficult for small companies to borrow from banks and expand businesses. “Small caps don’t weather the downturn as much as their larger counterparts and the outlook for small caps is very challenging,” Ju said.
  • Paulson's Fund Said to Lose 34% This Year. John Paulson, the billionaire who is betting on an economic recovery by the end of 2012, has lost 34 percent this year in his largest hedge fund, according to two people familiar with the firm. Paulson’s Advantage Plus Fund, which seeks to profit from corporate events such as takeovers and bankruptcies, lost 15 percent last month, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the fund is private. That compares with a 5.7 percent decline last month in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The fund’s gold-denominated share class has lost 17 percent this year, after declining 7 percent in August. Paulson, 55, whose New York-based firm Paulson & Co. manages $35 billion, has scaled back bullish bets after losses this year. He reduced his stake in Bank of America Corp. (BAC) to 60.4 million shares as of June 30 from 124 million shares on March 31. The bank’s shares have tumbled 44 percent so far this year. The hedge-fund industry has gained 3.4 percent in 2011 after falling 1.1 percent last month, according to the Bloomberg aggregate hedge-fund index. Paulson would have to return about 52 percent in the remainder of the year to break even in the Advantage Plus Fund.
  • Dalio Returns 25% on Diversified Bets as Markets Convulse: Influential 50. Bridgewater Associates LP founder Ray Dalio can rattle off the investing fads he’s witnessed since he began trading as a 12-year-old golf caddie: the Nifty-50 stock craze of the 1970s, the 1980 gold bubble and even the 60- 40 stock-to-bond mix. “Manias occur when there is group thinking,” Dalio says. Dalio, 62, built Bridgewater into the world’s largest macro hedge-fund firm, with $122 billion in total assets, by tacking against consensus.
  • China Stocks May Drop as Trading Value Plunges. China's stocks are poised to drop, if history is any guide, with trading activity at "pretty much dead" levels, according to China International Capital Corp. Trading was a leading indicator at five different activity cycles since 2006 as highs in the Shanghai Composite in October 2007 and July 2009 occurred about five months after activity reached peaks, said CICC, the top-ranked China research provider in Asiamoney magazine's annual survey. Trading on Sept. 6 was a 14-month low of $7.8 billion. "Trading has been pretty much dead in the A-shares market amid recent market routs," Hao Hong, a Beijing-based global strategist at CICC, wrote. "Consensus took this as a sign that Shanghai has bottomed. But we are less enthusiastic."
  • Japan's Machinery Orders Fall Most in 10 Months as Yen Gain Stalls Rebound. Japan’s machinery orders fell the most in 10 months in July, as the yen’s gain to a postwar record eroded company profits and discouraged investment. Factory orders dropped 8.2 percent in July from June, when they increased 7.7 percent, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. Orders, an indicator of capital spending in three to six months, were projected to decline by 4.2 percent, according to the median forecast of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Today’s report adds to concern that a rising yen may derail the nation’s recovery from March’s record earthquake, putting pressure on officials to take action to stem gains in the currency. Finance Minister Jun Azumi, who was sworn in last week, said on Sept. 4 that the government is ready to take decisive action against speculative moves in the yen. “The rebound may have run its course,” Richard Jerram, chief economist at Bank of Singapore Ltd., who has analyzed Asian economies for two decades, said before the report. The strong yen “is lowering profitability of companies, deterring them from making investments,” he said.
  • A Layman's Guide to the President's Jobs Speech: Caroline Baum. Let’s face it: If the president had a plan to create jobs, he wouldn’t have kept it under wraps until now. Why take flak from Republicans and heat from the public if you have what it takes to turn the economy and labor market around? Barack Obama doesn’t have a plan to create jobs. Nor is that his job. The government’s role is to provide an environment in which the private sector will create them. That should be his goal.
  • Australia Employers Cut Workers in August. Australian employers unexpectedly cut workers for a second straight month in August, sending the nation’s currency tumbling and bond yields lower as investors added to bets the central bank will cut interest rates. The number of people employed fell by 9,700, after a revised 4,100 drop in July, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. That compares with the median estimate for a 10,000 increase in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists. The jobless rate rose to 5.3 percent, the highest since October 2010, from 5.1 percent. Retailers and factories are getting hurt by a 16 percent gain in the currency in the past year that cuts export income and the developed world’s highest borrowing costs, which were left unchanged at 4.75 percent this week.
  • Growth Risk Means Favor Defensive Stocks, BofA's Kim Says. Investors should favor “defensive” utility and telecommunications shares in Asia whose earnings may be sheltered from a slowdown in the world’s biggest economies, Bank of America Corp. (BAC)’s head of Asia Pacific research said. There’s a risk of more selling in regional stocks, Hunsoo Kim at Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit said in an interview in Seoul yesterday. Merrill was rated first for Asia research in 2011 by Institutional Investor magazine. Kim, based in Hong Kong, was visiting Seoul for an annual Korea conference hosted by Merrill. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped 8.6 percent last month, the most since May 2010, on signs the U.S. economic recovery is faltering and concern that Europe’s debt crisis will spread. Utility and telecommunications gauges within the MSCI index lost less than 3 percent in August, the best performers among 10 industry groups. “We’re taking a defensive stance, and we acknowledge there are risks out there,” Kim said, without naming individual stocks nor giving an index forecast. “There’s going be less growth most likely next year, and markets reflect that.” Another round of asset purchases, or quantitative easing, in the U.S. is unlikely to happen in a “major” way, and even if it does, it may not necessarily resolve problems of the world’s largest economy, Kim said. The U.S. economy posted zero jobs growth last month, a government report on Sept. 2 showed. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to speak on the U.S. economic outlook later today. The central bank’s policy makers voted on June 22 to conclude a $600 billion bond-buying program as scheduled and maintain its balance sheet near record levels. The Fed pledged on Aug. 9 to keep its target interest rate near zero until at least mid-2013. “We’re not sure about the effectiveness of such policy to really get the U.S. back on track,” said Kim. “It didn’t create jobs, and at the end of the day, you cannot solve debt issues by creating more debt.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • Renaissance Quant Fund Adds to Gains. Renaissance Technologies LLC's quantitative hedge fund Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund was up a gross 5.4% in August, bringing the $6.5 billion fund's year-to-date gains to 25.56%, a person familiar with the situation said Wednesday. The strong gross return by the Renaissance fund—gross gains exclude the impact of fees and expenses paid by investors—shows that in a difficult month for hedge funds, some still managed to eke out gains.
  • Libya Oil Chief Plans Revival. Rebel Who Quickly Set Up Shop in Tripoli Sees Production Resuming Soon; an Expanding Portfolio. Libya's oil industry will be prepared to resume production within two weeks, while the rebel council is considering keeping their headquarters in Benghazi, said Oil and Finance Minister Ali Tarhouni, who has established himself—in a plush office left behind by the Gadhafi regime—as a key figure in the country's transition. A decision to keep the seat of power in the eastern base of the rebellion against Col. Moammar Gadhafi could sharpen regional rivalries and make it harder for leaders to convince their countrymen that they are the nation's legitimate rulers.
  • Feared SEC Watchdog Preps Slew of Reports. The Securities and Exchange Commission is bracing for a battery of reports from its internal watchdog that could be fodder for legislators looking to clip the agency's wings.
  • SEC Shifts Tack on Document Destruction Amid Whistleblower Threat. The back-stage action kicked up Wednesday in the ongoing Securities and Exchange Commission whistleblower case involving the agency’s record-keeping. Recall that a longtime SEC enforcement lawyer has accused the regulator of destroying probe-related documents it should have kept over more than a decade, to the likely detriment of Wall Street investigations and policing of the SEC’s own procedures and staff. The SEC has said it considered its policies proper when they were adopted. Wednesday brought a change to the implementation of some of those policies that have long mandated document-purging. Late in the day, SEC General Counsel Mark Cahn issued a memo to Division of Enforcement staff telling them to stop existing record-destruction procedures for closed cases, until further notice.
  • U.S. Hits Builders With Pay Probe. The Labor Department is investigating pay practices at many of the top companies in home building, hitting them with a broad demand for records that has led to complaints of regulatory overreach. Recipients of the letters include PulteGroup Inc.,Lennar Corp., D.R. Horton Inc. and KB Home, according to people familiar with the matter. A Labor Department spokeswoman confirmed the investigation but declined to discuss details. A copy of one letter, dated Aug. 1 and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, said the department was opening a probe under the Fair Labor Standards Act, which governs matters such as overtime pay and limits on using teen workers. The letter instructed the home builder to immediately turn over the names, addresses, Social Security numbers, pay rates and hours worked for all employees over the past two years. It asked the names of all contractors hired in the past year.
  • Perry, Romney Clash at Debate. Rick Perry and Mitt Romney clashed from the opening bell of a Republican presidential candidates' debate Wednesday, challenging each other on job creation, health care and Social Security in pointed exchanges that signaled their burgeoning rivalry is likely to dominate the contest in the months ahead.
  • The Obama Presidency by the Numbers by Michael J. Boskin.
  • Why the Stimulus Failed. New research on what actually happened to a trillion dollars.
CNBC:
  • The Economy Is Slowing: Blackstone's(BX) Steve Schwarzman. The economy appears to be slowing down dramatically, Steve Schwarzman said in an interview this afternoon with Maria Bartiromo. The Blackstone Group, a publicly traded private equity firm that owns many companies around the world, has seen the growth in its portfolio companies fall by more than half since the beginning of 2011. “We can see the economy slowing down. In the first quarter, our companies were growing around 9 and a half percent. In the second quarter, eight. In the last two months, it looks to be around half of that,” Schwarzman said. “We can see it getting slower in August than it was in July.” Schwarzman points out that the slowdown is taking place both in the US and in Europe. “The basic problem in Europe is that the banks are short capital if you mark to market sovereign debt,” Schwarzman said.
  • Libor Investigation of Banks Looks at Criminal Angle. The US investigation into alleged manipulation of interbank lending rates is focusing on possible violations of a commodities law that has previously been used to send financial executives to prison.
  • China to Back London as Offshore Renminbi Center. China is for the first time to give formal backing to moves by British banks to turn the City of London into an offshore trading center for the renminbi, UK government officials have told the Financial Times.
Business Insider:
NY Times:
  • Some Hedge Funds, to Stay Nimble, Reject New Investors. Since the financial crisis, big hedge funds like Paulson & Company, Millennium Management and Och-Ziff Capital Management Group have not turned away money, eagerly collecting billions of dollars from investors who have tended to stick with the industry’s marquee firms. The situation makes Anthony Bozza all the more unusual. With assets swelling, the hedge fund manager is closing the door to new investors at his four-year-old firm, Lakewood Capital Management. In a little more than a year, his fund has grown from $200 million to $900 million, according to investors in the fund. Small hedge funds were supposed to be the big losers in after the crisis, hampered by costly regulation and investors who flocked to the seeming safety of larger institutions. But three years later, some small and midsize managers are flourishing, attracting assets at a rapid rate. Rather than risk their returns, they are just saying no to new investors.

Seeking Alpha:
  • Is Greece About to Default? Yields on two-year Greek government bonds reached 46.84% recently. This is roughly comparable to yields on Argentine bonds in early December 2001 - only a month before the country defaulted on its debt. Similar interest rates occurred this spring in Greece before the second bailout package was put together. The bailout saved Greece from defaulting back then, but the bailout is now falling apart while the fiscal situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. The risk of default in the near future has returned, but the will to stop it this time around is much weaker than in the past.
Institutional Investor:
  • Market Conditions Make Appaloosa's David Tepper Cautious. Think the markets are scary and uncertain? Well, you’re not the only one. Even some of the savviest players are baffled about what is going on and have therefore turned very cautious. Case in point: Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper. Yes, the hedge fund manager who has ice-water in his veins and who likes to ride roller-coasters with his hands in the air, has turned cautious. Sources say he has gone 30 percent to 40 percent in cash, which is very high for him. Some of his cash is invested in U.S. Treasuries, which have in turn risen in value in recent weeks. Keep in mind that Tepper had about 30 percent in cash entering 2009, shortly before he started buying up banks such as Bank of America before anyone else had the guts to do the same and racked up triple-digit gains by the end of the year. Sources say he is not preparing to aggressively start spending this cash any time soon, except to pick up some shares of stocks he already owns on the dips. If you recall, last September Tepper helped to touch off a market rally when he offered his famous win-win analysis on CNBC, asserting stocks would either do well if the economy strengthened or with government stimulus.
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 22% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22 (see trends).
Reuters:
  • U.S. Mutual Fund Flows Break Six Week Losing Streak. U.S. domiciled mutual funds broke a six week losing streak, pulling in an estimated net $902 million in the week ended Aug. 31, data from the Investment Company Institute showed on Wednesday. ICI, a U.S. mutual fund trade organization, reported net outflows for both equity and bond funds, however, the largest net inflow for hybrid funds since early May overcame the deficit. Hybrid funds, which invest in both equities and bonds, pulled in a net $1.1 billion. Municipal bonds had a net inflow of $227 million, breaking a five week outflow streak.
  • G-III Apparel(GIII) Misses Expectations, Sees Weak Q3. Clothes maker G-III Apparel Group Ltd's posted second-quarter earnings well below analysts' estimates and forecast a weak third-quarter as more discounts eat into its margins. The New York City-based company's shares fell nearly 13 percent in after-market trade on Wednesday, after closing at $28.66 on Nasdaq.
Financial Times:
  • US Damps Likelihood of Joint Action on Currencies.
  • U.S. Congressional Budget Office researchers have found a government plan to back mortgages at current low interest rates would mean private investors being saddled with twice as much in losses as borrowers would get in payment relief, citing the CBO. A total of 2.9 million mortgages worth $428 billion would be refinanced, offering savings of $7.4 billion in lower payments and averting 111,000 defaults. The cost to the government would be around $600 million, although investors in government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities would lose between $13 billion and $15 billion from prepaying for securities above market rates.
Telegraph:
Sky News:
  • France Accuses Syria of War Crimes. France has accused of Syria of crimes against humanity as the EU moves to impose fresh sanctions against the country and its leader. 'The Syrian regime has committed crimes against humanity,' French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said on Wednesday during talks in Moscow with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. 'The way it (the Syrian regime) suppressed the popular protests is unacceptable,' he said, expressing hope that Russia would change its stance and back UN condemnation of the crackdown. The Syrian authorities, he said, should be sent 'a powerful signal that such actions cannot continue.'

Securities Times:
  • China may raise interest rates this month or next. Increases would be triggered by continuing high inflation, citing an economist at China International Capital Corp.
China Business News:
  • China will have a "very difficult" job achieving its price stabilization target, citing Yao Jingyuan, former chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Rated (GPN) Buy, target $53.
CSFB:
  • Rated (VFC) Outperform, target $137.
  • Rated (WWW) Outperform, target $44.
  • Rated (DECK) Outperform, target $110.
  • Rated (COH) Outperform, target $64.
  • Rated (ZUMZ) Outperform, target $24.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 154.0 -6.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 147.0 +.5 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.15%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (VRNT)/.60
  • (TITN)/.27
  • (SFD)/.66
  • (UNFI)/.42
  • (KFY)/.33
  • (JW/A)/.77
  • (ULTA)/.32
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for July is estimated to shrink to -$51.0B versus -$53.1B in June.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 405K versus 409K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3706K versus 3735K prior.
11:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,000,000 barrels versus a +5,281,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +500,000 barrels versus a +363,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,400,000 barrels versus a -2,795,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -1.0% versus a -1.1% decline the prior week.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for July is estimated to fall to $6.0B versus $15.53B in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The BoE Rate Announcement, ECB Rate Announcement, Fed's weekly balance sheet/M1, M2 reports, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (TXN) mid-quarter update, (COV) investor meeting, (ARBA) analyst day, (GD) analyst day and the (ATR) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Diminishing Financial Sector Pessimism, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 33.43 -9.65%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +9.02%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -33.59%
  • NYSE Arms .54 -62.48%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 123.15 -4.90%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 245.50 -2.46%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 315.17 unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 279.50 -4.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 32.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 184.0 +6 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $181.0/Metric Tonne +.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -54.70 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98% +4 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +107 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Retail, Biotech, Tech and Medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bullish, as the S&P 500 builds on yesterday's afternoon rebound on less Eurozone debt angst, less financial sector pessimism, short-covering, bargain-hunting and technical buying. On the positive side, Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Service, Steel, Disk Drive, Networking, Bank, Hospital, HMO, Insurance, Construction and Education shares are especially strong, rising more than +3.5%. Small-caps and cyclicals are outperforming. (XLF) has traded very well throughout the day. Gold is down -3.3% and Lumber is rising +1.98%. Weekly retail sales rose +4.9% this week versus a +4.2% gain the prior week. Major European equity indices surged 3-4% today. The Spain sovereign cds is plunging -12.44% to 368.33 bps, the Germany sovereign cds is dropping -5.06% to 78.17 bps, the France sovereign cds is falling -5.8% to 173.0 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is declining -4.23% to 432.67 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is falling -5.96% to 271.0 bps and the UK sovereign cds is falling -4.43% to 76.14 bps. Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is dropping -4.0% to 158.74 bps. On the negative side, Restaurant, Telecom and Utility shares are underperforming, rising less than +1.0%. Oil is up +3.1%. Rice is still near a multi-year high, rising +1.0%, and has risen +36.5% in about 9 weeks. The average US price for a gallon of gas is unch. today at $3.66/gallon. It is up .52/gallon in about 7 months. The Greece sovereign cds is rising +2.1% to 2,616.50 bps, which is an all-time high. The Eurozone Financial Sector and Western European Sovereign CDS Indices are still near all-time highs. The 3-Month Euro Basis Swap dropped another -1.27 bps to -100.96 bps, which is another new cycle low. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is still near its recent record high, which is also a large negative. The 10-year yield rose +6 bps today to 2.04%. However, bonds are still too strong given the last 2 days stock advance. While the euro did bounce today, it wasn't that impressive given recent losses and the surge in eurozone stocks. Moreover, while most eurozone cds fell today, other gauges of eurozone debt angst remain very elevated and continue to trend higher, which remains a large concern. Today's equity surge was on lackluster volume, but much-improved breadth. Until the macro backdrop stops deteriorating, any short-covering fueled equity rallies will likely prove unsustainable over the intermediate-term. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on technical buying, short-covering, a bounce in the euro, bargain-hunting and better US economic data.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Germany' s Top Court Rejects Constitutional Challenges to Euro Rescue Funds. Germany’s top court cleared the way for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition to participate in the current euro-area rescue plans, while saying it must seek some additional parliamentary approval for payouts under the funds. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe threw out three suits targeting Germany’s share of the 110 billion-euros ($155 billion) in loans for Greece from euro-region governments and the International Monetary Fund as well as a separate 750 billion-euro rescue fund approved last year in an effort to prevent Greece’s debt crisis from spreading. The ruling will aid Merkel’s efforts to gain support for participation in a new round of European Financial Stability Facility programs. The court said its ruling today shouldn’t be seen as “blanket” authorization of future rescue packages and the government must seek approval from the parliament’s budget committee for the individual guarantees it assumes in each bailout under the current EFSF. “Parliamentary decisions about taxing and spending are a central element of democratic self-government under the constitution,” Andreas Vosskuhle, president of the court, said in the ruling. “As representatives of the people, the elected members of parliament thus also need to remain in control over elementary budgetary decisions.”
  • EU Said to Delay Ban Bondholder Writedown Plan. The European Union is delaying proposals for senior bondholders of failing banks to take losses because the measures may spook investors at a time of market turbulence and they need more work, according to two people familiar with the situation. Michel Barnier, the EU’s financial services commissioner, will unveil draft legislation on the measures in October at the earliest, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because negotiations on the proposals are continuing.
  • Saks(SKS), Nordstrom(JWN) Say Luxury Sales Firm. So far so good in the luxury sector, say top executives of Saks Inc. (SKS) and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN), as stock markets lurch up and down amid global economic uncertainty. Saks Chief Executive Officer Stephen Sadove and Nordstrom Chief Financial Officer Michael Koppel say sales at their luxury chains are holding up and that they are sticking to their forecasts.
  • The cost of insuring Greek government debt rose 117 basis points to a record 2,771 basis points, according to CMA prices.
  • Gold Drops for Second Day as Equity Rebound Trims Haven Investment Demand. Gold dropped the most in two weeks as a rebound in global equities eroded demand for an alternative asset and spurred investors to sell the metal after its rally to an all-time high. Gold for December delivery declined $67.80, or 3.6 percent, to $1,805.80 an ounce at 11:07 a.m. on the Comex in New York, heading for the biggest drop since Aug. 24.
  • Crude Gains on Forecast Stockpile Drop as Cyclone Builds in Gulf of Mexico. Crude oil climbed the most in four weeks in New York as a weather system threatened to reduce U.S. production from the Gulf of Mexico, where shut-ins from last week’s storm probably curbed stockpiles. Crude oil for October delivery rose $3.46, or 4 percent, to $89.48 a barrel at 12:42 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
  • Tropical Storm Maria Joins Katia in Atlantic. Tropical Storm Maria formed in the Atlantic, the 13th named system of the 2011 season, as Hurricane Katia weakened further on its path around Bermuda.
  • IMF to Cut Irish Economic Growth. The International Monetary Fund will cut its Irish economic growth estimate for this year and next as the outlook for its main trading partners, the euro region, U.S. and U.K. “worsened substantially.” The Washington-based fund will lower its 2011 gross domestic product forecast for the country to 0.4 percent and 2012 projection to 1.5 percent as part of its world economic outlook this month, it said in a report today. The IMF had been forecasting growth of 0.6 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.
  • U.S. Job Openings Rose in July as Slower Hiring Signals Lack of Confidence. Job openings in the U.S. rose in July for a third month, while a slowdown in hiring showed businesses lacked the confidence to take on new staff. The number of positions waiting to be filled climbed by 59,000 to 3.23 million, according to Labor Department figures issued today in Washington. Hiring decreased by 74,000 to 3.98 million.
  • Hedge Funds' Bets on S&P 500 Futures Are Most Bearish Since September 2007. Bearish bets by investors using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures increased to the highest level in almost four years amid concern global economic growth is stalling. Hedge funds and other large speculators were net short 107,913 contracts in the week ended Aug. 30, wagering that the S&P 500 will decrease in value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The position is the highest since September 2007, when bearish bets reached a record 127,474 contracts a month before the benchmark equity gauge peaked at an all-time high, Bloomberg data going back to 1997 show.
Wall Street Journal:
  • BP(BP) Feels Shareholder Heat After String of Setbacks. BP PLC shareholders are demanding the oil company come up with a new growth strategy after a miserable week in which rival Exxon Mobil Corp. replaced it in a landmark Russian Arctic deal and its Moscow office was raided by court officials. The latest setbacks come against a background of mounting investor frustration at the slow pace of BP's recovery from last year's Gulf of Mexico disaster.
  • BNY Mellon: Funded Status of US Pensions Fell in August. The average funded status of the typical U.S. corporate pension plan declined in August, hitting the lowest level in nearly a year, BNY Mellon Asset Management said Wednesday.
  • Eleven Killed, 66 Injured in Delhi Terror Attack. A bomb exploded outside New Delhi's High Court, killing 11 people and injuring more than 60 in an act of suspected terrorism in the heart of India's capital that further heightened concerns about the nation's security vulnerabilities. The high-intensity blast occurred Wednesday at 10:14 a.m. near the courthouse reception area. Officials said they believed the bomb was placed in a briefcase.
  • Suicide Blast Kills 23 People in Pakistan. A pair of suicide bombers attacked a top army officer in Pakistan's southwestern city of Quetta on Wednesday, missing him but killing his wife. At least 22 others died, including several guards, a senior officer and two children, officials said. Police said they were investigating whether the strike was in revenge for the recent arrests in Quetta of three top al-Qaida suspects, an operation that was assisted by the CIA.
CNBC.com:
Business Insider
Zero Hedge:
Washington Post:
  • SEC Still Destroying Records Illegally, Whistleblower Says. A year after it was warned that it might be violating federal law, the Securities and Exchange Commission is still breaking the law by destroying records of closed enforcement cases, a lawyer in the agency’s enforcement division has alleged. In addition, the purging of files has involved a wider range of investigative documents than previously reported, according to a signed statement by the enforcement lawyer.
Forbes:
CNN Money:
  • Big Hedge Funds Getting Slaughtered. Lyxor Asset Management, an arm of French bank Societe General, feeds $11.7 billion from investors into 100 hedge funds through its managed accounts platform, according to Stefan Keller, head of research and external relations at Lyxor. According to documents obtained by CNNMoney, 15 of these funds generated double digit percentage losses as of September 2. Five funds were down more than 20%.
Reuters:
Bild:
  • Horst Seehofer, Bavaria's prime minister and Christian Social Union chairman, said Greece's exit from the euro is "possible," though he would prefer it to remain in the single currency by boosting efforts to cut debt, citing an interview. Seehofer, whose CSU is one of three parties in Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition, said he has "considerable doubt" that Greece and Italy have earnest intentions to cut spending.
Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung:
  • Germany's Free Democrats, the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, reject joint bond sales by euro members, Economy Minister Philipp Roesler, the party's chairman, said.
Expansion:
  • Spain's biggest business lobby group called on the government to raise taxes on the rich to help the country rein in its budget deficit.