Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising global growth fears, profit-taking and Eurozone debt angst offsets falling energy prices, better US economic data and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,342.64 -.17%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,342.64 -.17%
  
• DJIA 12,801.20 -.47%
  
• NASDAQ 2,903.88 -.06%
  
• Russell 2000 813.33 -2.14%
  
• Wilshire 5000 14,000.50 -.33%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 630.56 unch.
  
• Russell 1000 Value 663.95 -.39%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 778.69 -.92%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,003.02 -1.06%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 674.62 +.52%
  
• Transports 5,254.14 -2.14%
  
• Utilities 450.45 -.20%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.92 -.95%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,014.06 +1.71%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 825.02 +.50%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 549.67 -1.73%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 143,142 +1.47%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 298 +9
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 53.0 +51.43%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 168,885 -1.06%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,484,546 +6.05%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.08 +45.95%
  
• OEX Put/Call 3.05 +258.82%
  
• ISE Sentiment 61.0 -56.74%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.28 +116.94%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 20.79 +21.58%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 73.15 +3.20%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.15 unch.
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,414.42 +1.06%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.657 Trillion -.1%
  
• AAII % Bulls 51.64 +17.87%
  
• AAII % Bears 20.19 -19.50%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 312.14 -.66%
  
• Crude Oil 98.67 +.92%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 297.49 +2.26%
  
• Natural Gas 2.48 -1.31%
  
• Heating Oil 318.21 +2.2%
  
• Gold 1,725.30 -.19%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 230.55 +2.83%
  
• Copper 386.20 -1.11%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 401.67 USD/Ton unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 142.70 USD/Ton -.42%
  
• Lumber 275.50 +2.99%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,503.83 -1.45%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -4.30% +90 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1672 -1.42%
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 107.02 +.12%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 73.30 -10.4 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/13
  
• US Dollar Index 79.0 +.08%
  
• Yield Curve 171.0 +2 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.99% +7 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.911 Trillion +.11%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.06 -6.89%
  
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 233.0 +1.31%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 332.31 -.13%
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 243.75 -6.91%
  
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.90 -.07%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 77.75 +.37%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 651.0 -29 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22% +6 basis points
  
• TED Spread 42.0 -4 basis points
  
• 3-Month Euribor/OIS Spread 72.0 -4 basis points
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -72.75 +2 basis points
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 98.08 +3.32%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 180.58 +12.08%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 265.13 +3.53%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 189.0 -13 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $2.227 Trillion -.19%
  
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 972.90 +.10%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 366,300 -2.90%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.8% +10 basis points
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.87% -11 basis point
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 810.0 +7.53%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -41.7 +3.1 points
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.50% -20 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.50/gallon +.03/gallon
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 2.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 695.0 +6.75%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 unch.
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 232,590 -1.04%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -2.36%

Leading Sectors

• Tobacco +2.44%
  
• HMOs +1.62%
  
• Education +1.01%
• Retail +.82%
• Computer Hardware +.43%

Lagging Sectors

• Road & Rail -3.28%
• Steel -3.70%
  
• Airlines -4.49%
• Oil Tankers -5.44%
• Coal -6.23%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)

• SURW, CALX, GUID, MITK, ZOLT, CODE, TLEO, BWLD, CSC, ABMD, OYOG, WNC, AVID, SWI, CSTR, RBC, ACIW, JIVE, COSH, NCR, RL, THOR, KNXA, KFRC, HAR, HPY, LVLT, TW, ZNGA, PRO, HMN, THR, PMT and BRO
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)

• TCAP, SREV, VSAT, GHDX, WU, MOD, GRPN, DFT, OPEN, ONE, TRIP, OPNT, SGI, IRBT and DMND
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Rising Global Growth Fears, Less Financial Sector Optimism, Profit-Taking

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Sharply Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 21.03 +12.88%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 61.0 -47.86%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.08 +24.14%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.29 +45.53%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.08 +4.02%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 180.21 +7.96%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 332.25 +1.96%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 265.11 +2.96%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 +1.0 bp
  
• TED Spread 42.50 +.25 bp
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -72.75 -5.25 bps
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 169.0 -8 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $142.70/Metric Tonne -.07%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 73.30 -3.3 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 +3 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -50 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my Biotech, Tech and Retail sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish, as the S&P 500 trades near session lows on rising Eurozone debt angst, rising global growth fears, less financial sector optimism, profit-taking, technical selling and more shorting. On the positive side, Networking, Hospital and HMO shares are flat-to-higher on the day. Oil is falling -1.0%, Lumber is gaining +.25%, Gold is down -.55% and the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -.68%. Oil continues to trade poorly given the stock rally, euro rally, rising interest from speculators, falling euro debt angst, subsiding emerging market hard-landing fears, improving US data and rising Mid-east tensions over the last few weeks. The Portugal sovereign cds is falling -4.6% to 1,141.02 bps. On the negative side, Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Tanker, Steel, Disk Drive, Semi and Homebuliding shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -2.0%. The Financials and Transports continue to underperform. Copper is falling -3.25%. The Germany sovereign cds is gaining +2.96% to 85.11 bps, the France sovereign cds is gaining +8.65% to 176.67 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is gaining +4.35% to 363.28 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is gaining +6.5% to 393.67 bps, the Japan sovereign cds is jumping +7.2% to 125.96 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is gaining +3.9% to 224.33 bps, the UK sovereign cds is gaining +3.7% to 75.33 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is rising +3.0% to 141.17 bps. This is the first meaningful uptick in sovereign cds since the beginning of January. Lumber is flat since its Dec. 29th high despite the better US economic data, more dovish Fed commentary, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, equity rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the weekly MBA Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged over -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down over -50.0% ytd. The 10Y T-Note Yield is dropping -7 bps to 1.96% today, which remains a concern considering the recent stock rally, falling Eurozone debt angst and improvement in US economic data. The Philly Fed’s ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index has stalled over the last month after showing meaningful improvement from mid-Nov. through year-end. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still fairly close to its Jan. 9th all-time high. The TED spread, 2Y Euro Swap Spread, 3M Euribor-OIS spread and Libor-OIS spread have improved, but are still at stressed levels. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -20.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up +546.0% ytd to the highest level since March of last year and approaching their April 2010 record. The -19.0% m/m decline in China copper imports for January likely indicates a meaningful softening in demand rather than intentional hoarding. Copper futures are near session lows on volume. Major Asian indices fell around -.75% overnight, led lower by a -1.1% decline in Hong Kong shares on disappointing China import/export data. Major European indices are falling around -1.25%, led lower by a -1.5% decline in Italian shares. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index is dropping -2.4%. Animosity towards Germany is building in Greece. While Greece will very likely succumb to demands, it is highly unlikely they will meet these demands over the intermediate-term. I still see little evidence to suggest that Europe's debt crisis won't flare up again in an even more intense fashion down the road. The major averages are rallying off the morning lows, as usual, with the tech sector once again providing leadership as one of my longs, market leader Apple(AAPL), hits another new high. I expect the tech sector to continue to provide leadership over the intermediate-term. The financial sector has begun to lag again and I suspect its recent outperformance has run its course. As well, technical action in the Transports is a short-term concern. For an intermediate-term equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, subsiding hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, rising global growth fears, less financial sector optimism, technical selling, profit-taking and more shorting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Greek Bailout at Risk as Party Pushes Back. Greece’s bailout was at risk of unraveling as a governing coalition party pushed back against German demands for deeper budget cuts needed to prevent financial collapse. Greek police used tear gas to counter demonstrators in Athens as Prime Minister Lucas Papademos called a meeting of his ministers this evening to discuss a bill detailing the austerity measures to be put to a parliamentary vote this weekend. The Cabinet was due to meet after one minister and three deputies from the Laos party as well as a Socialist minister said they were quitting in protest at the steps worked out for a rescue. “What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country,” George Karatzaferis, whose Laos party has 16 members in the 300-seat parliament, said in televised comments. “Clearly Greece can’t and shouldn’t do without the European Union but it could do without the German boot.” Karatzaferis spoke hours after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin that Greece was missing deficit goals and had to do more to meet the targets in the 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) bailout being negotiated. With Greece’s second rescue package in the balance, the parties that support Papademos’s interim government are meeting ahead of parliamentary votes on the new measures. Lawmakers from both the Socialist Pasok party and the New Democracy party that leads in opinion polls before elections due as soon as April will meet to discuss the steps tomorrow.
• S&P Downgrades 34 of 37 Italian Banks It Rates. UniCredit SpA (UCG), Italy’s biggest bank, had its ratings lowered to BBB+/A-2 from A/A-1 by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, following last month’s sovereign downgrade. The outlook is negative. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS), the second- and third-largest banks, were also downgraded as S&P revised of the banking industry country risk assessment, or BICRA, to group 4 from group 3. S&P downgraded 34 of the 37 Italian banks it rates.
• Sovereign Bond Risk Soars as Greece Plan Rebuffed, Aid Withheld. The cost of insuring European sovereign debt soared after finance ministers rebuffed a Greek austerity plan being demanded in exchange for a 130 billion-euro ($173 billion) rescue package. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 governments climbed nine basis points to 331 at 1 p.m. in London. The gauge is headed for the first weekly increase in five weeks, signaling deterioration in perceptions of credit quality. Swaps on Italy surged 24 basis points to 394 and Spain jumped 20 to 368, according to BNP Paribas SA. Contracts on Austria climbed 14 to 170, France rose 10 to 174 and Belgium increased seven to 213. The cost of insuring corporate debt also surged with the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high- yield credit ratings jumping 32 basis points to 599.5, heading for the first weekly increase since Dec. 16, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings rose 5.75 basis points to 135.75 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers increased 14 basis points to 219 and the subordinated index climbed 25 to 362.
• Copper Drops Most in Two Months on Greek Outlook, China Imports. Copper fell the most since mid- December on signs that a Greek debt-bailout plan may unravel and as imports of the metal declined in China, the world’s largest user. European finance ministers held back a rescue package for Greece, fueling concern that the continent’s sovereign-debt crisis may curb global economic growth. Copper shipments to China fell in January, the first drop in eight months, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced for a ninth straight week to an all-time high. “The market expected the Greek situation to have a resolution by now, and so the risk appetite has subsided with the uncertainty,” Adam Klopfenstein, a market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “And any time there’s news of a slowdown in China, that adds to bearish sentiment.” Copper futures for March delivery fell 2.7 percent to $3.8695 a pound at 11:28 a.m. on the Comex in New York, heading for the biggest decline since Dec. 14. Prices are down 0.8 percent for the week, the first decline in five weeks. Imports of unwrought copper and products by China were 413,964 metric tons in January, falling from a record 508,942 tons in December, the General Administration of Customs said today.
• High-Frequency Traders May Win Reprieve in Flash-Crash Rule. High-frequency traders may win a partial reprieve from proposed European Union rules designed to prevent a repeat of the so-called flash crash after banks and exchanges including Deutsche Bank AG and NYSE Euronext warned they could damage markets and lead to an exodus of traders.
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Falls. Confidence among U.S. consumers declined more than forecast in February as growing optimism about job prospects failed to ease concern wages will stagnate. T he Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment dropped to 72.5 from 75 in January, a one-year high. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for 74.8. Another report showed the nation’s trade gap widened in December. A 22-cent increase in the price of a gallon of gasoline this year is pinching household finances, serving as a reminder that the pickup in hiring has yet to boost incomes.

Wall Street Journal:

• IHS: 4Q Hard-Disk Shipments Off 26% On Flood Disruptions. Global hard-disk drive shipments in the fourth quarter slipped 26% from a year earlier due to production disruptions from flooding in Thailand, according to industry researcher IHS Inc. (IHS). While hard-disk drive supplies in the first quarter began to recover from the disastrous flooding in late 2011, unit shipments aren't expected to return to annual growth for several months, IHS said.
• Interview: ECB Cash Boost Risks Isolating Bond Markets - Fidelity. The European Central Bank's generous three-year liquidity injection has helped lower yields on the bonds of the euro zone' peripheral issuers but it has isolated markets, as banks remain wary of buying sovereign bonds issued by anyone other than their own governments, a fund manager told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Wednesday.
• New Violence in Syrian North Kills 28. Two explosions ripped through security compounds in the Syrian city of Aleppo on Friday, as opposition in restive neighborhoods of Homs appeared to weaken after seven days of relentless shelling by government forces. Syria's state news agency said 28 people were killed and 235 wounded in twin blasts targeting a military-intelligence headquarters and police station in Aleppo, Syria's largest city. It published grisly photos of mangled bodies. Like other reports that have emerged from both sides of the conflict in Syria, a country largely cut off to independent reporting, it couldn't be independently confirmed.
  

MarketWatch:

• Catholics Not Fooled Over Accounting Gimmick. Calls on Congress to Pass Real Conscience Protection. CatholicVote.org, a leading national grassroots Catholic advocacy organization, denounced President Obama's empty "compromise" on the HHS mandate. CatholicVote.org President Brian Burch issued the following statement: "President Obama has introduced an accounting gimmick to appease voters over his recent Health and Human Services mandate. The so-called compromise announced today will continue to force virtually all employers, including religious institutions, to pay into insurance policies that cover abortion drugs and other immoral medicines and procedures.

Business Insider:

• Live: The Greek Government Is Falling Apart.
• 10% of Trades on the NYSE Involve a Single Notorious Company.
• Chart of the Day: The Roubini Stock Market Indicator.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Manipulation And Abuse Confirmed In $350 Trillion Market.
• Whither Crude. (graph)
• The Shorts Have Left The Building. (graph)
• Why is Gasoline Consumption Tanking? (graph)
• Obama Revises CBO Deficit Forecast, Predicts 110% Debt-To-GDP By End Of 2013, Worse Deficit In 2012 Than 2011.

New York Times:

• India Explores Economic Opportunities in Iran, Denting Western Sanctions Plan.

HedgeFundBlogger:

• Hedge Fund Exits Hit Record Low to Start 2012.

BGR:

• Tablet Sales Expected to Reach 248.6 Million Units by 2015, Smartphones Sales to Hit 1 Billion.

Reuters:

• Greek Police Union Wants to Arrest EU/IMF Officials. Greece's largest police union has threatened to issue arrest warrants for officials from the country's European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders for demanding deeply unpopular austerity measures. In a letter obtained by Reuters Friday, the Federation of Greek Police accused the officials of "...blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty" and said one target of its warrants would be the IMF's top official for Greece, Poul Thomsen.
• Iraq Targets 200,000 bpd Oil Export Rise for March. Iraq aims to boost oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day next month after it opens up a new Gulf outlet, a senior Iraqi oil official said, freeing Baghdad to export all the extra barrels foreign oil companies are extracting from its giant fields. Top Iraqi officials are due to inaugurate a Single Point Mooring (SPM) for loading tankers on Sunday after bad weather and technical problems set back its initial start. Shipments of Basra Light crude have been stuck at around 1.7 million bpd since last year as exports hit obstacles in the south. If all goes to plan, exports from Iraq's southern oilfields will rise to 1.9 million bpd by March - pushing overall oil sales to 2.3 million bpd - a postwar record, the Iraqi oil official said on Friday.
• US Congressman Says Will Be Exonerated By Ethics Probe.
  

Telegraph:

• Debt Crisis: Live. The Greek Government heads for a reshuffle as five cabinet members resign and cast doubt over the implementation of tough austerity measures required to secure a €130bn bailout package, while PM Lucas Papademos warns default would be "uncontrolled chaos".

L'Echo:

• Belgium needs to find as much as 2.5 billion euros in spending cuts or new revenue in order to meet its 2012 budget goal and cut the deficit to 2.8% of gdp, citing figures from the country's federal planning bureau. The planning bureau cut is forecast for growth for this year to .1% to gdp, while the government has its 2012 budget based on growth of .8%.
  

Xinhua:

• Beijing will maintain existing housing curbs until prices have been brought to "reasonable levels," citing Yang Bin, director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.
• China's western province of Gansu will raise minimum monthly wages by about 13.5% in April, citing the Gansu provincial bureau of human resources and social security.
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.40%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -4.0% 2) Steel -3.50% 3) Alt Energy -3.40%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PBR, SWC, SCCO, PTR, AMX, MBT, GSVC, NUAN, TRLG, UNFI, SLXP, STMP, LNCE, RMTI, UEPS, ALNY, ARTC, VLTR, TSLA, EA, BBBY, EXPE, CYOU, FSLR, VRNT, XL, GDI, IX, FEU, FLO, PBI, SEE, ACI, GME, GPI, PPO, APO, AB and OSG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CTRP 2) CRUS 3) LNKD 4) NUAN 5) FXY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TRLG 2) FSLR 3) LEN 4) XL 5) LUFK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume