Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.42%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Drugs +.39% 2) Education +.29% 3) Tobacco +.18%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AIG, FSYS, FIRE, CLNE, BVSN, NTRI and SUP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GME 2) P 3) KERX 4) ILMN 5) LEAP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) P 2) AIG 3) LCC 4) LMT 5) NTRI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Greece Debt-Swap Deadline This Week to Show If Europe Moving Past Crisis. The European Union faces a first test in its attempt to turn the page on the two-year debt crisis when Greece’s private creditors decide this week whether to sign off on the biggest sovereign-debt restructuring in history. The success of the 106 billion-euro ($140 billion) debt swap, confirmed on the eve of last week’s European Union summit, depends on how many investors agree to the writedown by the March 8 deadline. Euro-area finance ministers will hold a teleconference on March 9 to review the deal’s outcome. “The European crisis is not quite over yet,” Erik Nielsen, chief global economist at UniCredit SpA in London, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. He said enough creditors will probably participate in the writedown to avoid triggering so-called collective action clauses, which could be used by Greece to compel investors to participate and roil markets by triggering credit-default swap insurance contracts.
• Greece Ratings Cut to Lowest Level by Moody's. Greece’s credit rating was cut to the lowest level by Moody’s Investors Service after the country began the biggest sovereign debt restructuring ever. Greece’s long-term foreign currency debt was downgraded to C from Ca late yesterday, with Moody’s saying in a statement that investors who participate in the nation’s debt exchange will get about 70 percent less than the face value of their holdings. The deal constitutes “a distressed exchange, and hence a default,” the New York-based rating company said.
  
• German Banks Make Up More Than Half of ECB Tender, Welt Reports. More than half of the 800 lenders that tapped the European Central Bank’s Feb. 29 tender of three- year loans were German, mainly small savings and cooperative banks, Die Welt newspaper reported. Germany’s biggest 15 so-called systemically relevant banks were underrepresented in the tender with fewer than half tapping the loan and, while numerous, the savings and cooperative banks borrowed small sums, the newspaper said in a pre-released report. It didn’t say where it got the information. In all, German banks borrowed less than 10 percent of the tender, worth 529.5 billion euros ($699 billion), compared with 26 percent, or 140 billion euros, borrowed by Italian banks, Die Welt said. German banks make up a quarter of the euro-area’s total bank balance sheet while Italian banks have a 12 percent share, the newspaper said.
• Merkel Needs Two-Thirds Majority for EU Budget Accord, SZ Says. German Chancellor Angela Merkel needs a two-thirds majority in parliament to obtain approval of the European Union agreement requiring balanced budgets, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported. The agreement, signed yesterday in Brussels by 25 of the European Union’s 27 states, requires more than a simple parliamentary majority because it shifts fiscal authority to the EU level, the newspaper said, citing unidentified German officials. Germany’s constitution requires a broad consensus for such a step when it’s put up for a vote, the newspaper said. The requirement means Merkel depends on the support of opposition parties in both houses to ensure the accord is approved, SZ said.
• Merkel Faces Opposition in Coalition to Boost Rescue Fund, Spiegel Reports. German Chancellor Angela Merkel may be prepared to increase the size of Europe’s permanent rescue fund, though she faces opposition from her junior coalition partner, the Christian Social Union, Der Spiegel reported. Both Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble may be ready to bow to international pressure to increase the 500 billion-euro ($660 billion) European Stability Mechanism, the magazine reported today. Schaeuble recommends running the fund in parallel with its temporary predecessor, the European Financial Stability Facility, to create a 750 billion-euro fund, Spiegel reported, without citing anyone. The proposal is opposed by the CSU, the Bavarian sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, because the group views the 211 billion euros pledged by Germany to the temporary fund as the upper limit, Spiegel said.
• Dutch Freedom Party Wants Euro Exit Referendum, Telegraaf Says. The Dutch Freedom party wants voters in the Netherlands to decide in a referendum whether the country should return to the guilder, De Telegraaf reported today, citing an interview with party leader Geert Wilders. Leaving the euro will cost money, especially the first year, after which loss will be recovered in 2014, the newspaper cited Wilders as saying. Wilders added that this at least warrants a referendum, De Telegraaf reported. The Freedom Party hired Lombard Street Research to investigate the cost of maintaining the Euro zone and alternative scenarios if countries elect to leave, according to a statement by London-based FTI Consulting. The report will be presented in The Hague on March 5.
• China's February Non-Manufacturing Index Falls in Sign Economy Weakening. China’s non-manufacturing industries contracted for the first time in three months in February, adding to signs the world’s second-biggest economy is weakening. The non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.4 from 52.9 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement today in Beijing. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion. Today’s data may increase concerns that the economy will see a deeper slowdown after a decline in overseas sales and weaker-than-forecast lending in January.The federation’s non-manufacturing PMI is based on a survey of about 1,200 companies in 20 industries including transportation, real estate, retailing, catering and software.
• China Lowers GDP Target as Exports Slow. China pared the nation’s economic growth target to 7.5 percent from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005, a signal that leaders are determined to reduce reliance on exports and capital spending in favor of consumption. Officials will also aim for inflation of about 4 percent this year, unchanged from the 2011 goal, according to a state- of-the-nation speech that Premier Wen Jiabao delivered to about 3,000 lawmakers at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing today.
• China Car Sales Seen Having Worst Start Since 2005 on Economy. Automobile sales in China, the world’s biggest car market, may be having their worst start in seven years as a slowing economy and record gasoline prices keep consumers away from dealerships. Deliveries of passenger autos, including sport-utility vehicles and light-goods vans, in the first two months of 2012 fell 3 percent from a year earlier, based on the median estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the biggest drop since 2005, when they fell 8.9 percent, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, which will release industry data later this month.
• China to Curb Auto Production Capacity, Promote New-Energy Car Development. China will control the increase in auto manufacturing capacity and encourage mergers and reorganizations in the industry, according to a work report that Premier Wen Jiabao delivered at the nation’s legislature. The government will promote new-energy vehicles and encourage the scrapping of old vehicles to reduce pollution, according to a separate report today by the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner.
• Romney Gains Ahead of Super Tuesday. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney gained momentum in the Republican presidential primary, picking up endorsements and rising in polls before state contests March 6 that may determine the party nomination. Fresh off a victory yesterday in Washington’s caucus, Romney won the backing of U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia and Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn, as surveys showed him building support in Ohio, a political bellwether, and holding an outsized advantage over rivals in Virginia.
• Fed's Bullard Says U.S. Growth Indicates Non Need for Additional Stimulus. The Federal Reserve should hold off on additional accommodation because the U.S. economy is growing moderately and risks from the European debt crisis have eased, said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. “I wouldn’t take anything off the table,” Bullard said yesterday in an interview with BNN Television in Vancouver. “For now things are looking better for the U.S. economy and it is a good time to wait and see.” Bullard said in a speech that he expects the U.S. unemployment rate to drop to 7.8 percent by year’s end, as a “moderate expansion” spurs improvement in the labor market. His comments echoed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who said in congressional testimony last week that maintaining monetary stimulus is warranted even as the unemployment rate falls and rising oil prices may push up inflation temporarily. The central bank could damage its credibility by signaling policy that will stay unusually easy for a specified time frame, Bullard said at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver. “If the economy is performing well at the point in the future where the promise begins to bite, then the committee may simply abandon the promise and return to normal policy,” he said. The result would be “unhelpful” and result in “credibility problems.” The Fed’s asset purchase program, or quantitative easing, may worsen the risk that prices will rise, Bullard said. “Increases in the size of the balance sheet entail additional inflationary risks if accommodation is not removed at an appropriate pace,” he said. “I’d be concerned that we not undertake a policy move like QE that would possibly feed into a global increase in oil prices,” Bullard said to reporters after his speech. In the television interview, Bullard said he is “a bit concerned with rising energy prices.” While $4-per-gallon of gasoline doesn’t seem to be hurting consumer spending, an increase to $5-per-gallon would be “enough to get the attention of households,” he said. Bullard said in the interview that the Fed could boost its target rate “sooner if the economy behaves better than expected. We have to be ready to make an adjustment,” which could also mean postponing an interest rate increase.
• Boom-Era Property Speculators to Get Foreclosure Aid: Mortgages. The Obama administration will extend mortgage assistance for the first time to investors who bought multiple homes before the market imploded, helping some speculators who drove up prices and inflated the housing bubble. Landlords can qualify for up to four federally-subsidized loan workouts starting around May, as long as they rent out each house or have plans to fill them, under the revamped Home Affordable Modification Program, also known as HAMP, according to Timothy Massad, the Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial stability. The program pays banks to reduce monthly payments by cutting interest rates, stretching terms, and forgiving principal.
• Japan May Double Consumption Tax: Noda. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said yesterday he thinks he can reach a deal with the opposition to double the 5 percent consumption tax in order to shore up the country’s social security system.
• BP(BP) Set to Rise as Spill Settlement Lifts Cloud. BP Plc (BP/) is poised to gain at least 5 percent this week after a $7.8 billion settlement with victims of the worst U.S. oil spill, an analyst survey showed. BP shares will probably rise to a minimum of 520 pence from the close of 496.5 pence on March 2, according to the forecasts of five oil industry analysts. Jason Kenney, an analyst for Banco Santander SA (SAN) in Edinburgh, said the stock may climb as high as 580 pence over time if additional spill costs stay within the company’s estimates.
• Oil Rises on Iran Tension, Enbridge Pipeline Shutdown. Oil rose from a three-day low in New York after President Barack Obama said the U.S. may use military force to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and Enbridge Inc. (ENB) shut a pipeline in Illinois. Futures climbed as much as 0.6 percent, rebounding from the firstly weekly loss in four. Oil for April delivery gained as much as 59 cents to $107.29 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $106.92 at 3:17 p.m. Sydney time. Brent oil for April settlement was at $123.81 a barrel, up 16 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
• Speculative Wagers on Agriculture Surge to a Five-Month High: Commodities. Speculators increased bets on higher agricultural prices to a five-month high on mounting concern that a South American drought will curb supplies of soybeans, corn and sugar at a time of record global demand. A measure of speculative positions across 11 farm goods jumped 26 percent to 607,721 futures and options in the week ended Feb. 28, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Corn bets increased the most in eight weeks, and sugar holdings climbed to the highest since August. Wagers on higher soybean prices rose to a five-month high. Hedge funds and other speculators are the most bullish on commodities since September as sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program disrupt oil supplies and weather damages crops in South America.
• GM(GM) Will Stop Making Volt Plug-In for 5 Weeks. General Motors Co. (GM), missing sales goals for the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid, plans to halt production of the sedan for five weeks beginning later this month rather than discount the high-technology cars. GM will stop making Volts at its Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant from March 19 until April 23, Chris Lee, a company spokesman, said in an e-mail March 2. The factory had ramped up to full-speed production Feb. 6 after the New Year’s shutdown. “The fact that GM is now facing an oversupply of Volts suggests that consumer demand is just not that strong for these vehicles,” said Lacey Plache, chief economist for auto-research website Edmunds.com. “Even as gas prices continue to climb, President Obama’s attempt to manipulate the free market and force consumers into purchasing electric vehicles like the GM Volt has failed despite the use of taxpayer dollars to prop up production,” U.S. Representative Darrell Issa, the California Republican chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said in a statement.
• VIX Rises With S&P by Most Since 1996 on Europe Concern: Options. U.S. stocks are the price of protection against losses are rising in unison more frequently than at any time since 1996, as investors anticipate the end of the biggest S&P rally in two decades. The CBOE VIX Index and S&P 500 increased together on 23% of days in January and February, the most during those months in 16 years, according to Bloomberg. In the 22-year history of the VIX, as the options gauge is known, the two indexes climbed at the same time on only 12% of days, the data show.
• Protesters Tell Hong Kong's Tsang to Resign. Thousands of protesters marched through Hong Kong for a second day yesterday demanding the immediate resignation of Donald Tsang as the city’s chief executive. The rally, organized by political group People Power, held up effigies of Hong Kong’s leader and railed against Tsang’s alleged acceptance of favors from local tycoons.
• Putin Denounces Rivals Claiming Fraud. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin claimed victory in a presidential election that his opponents say was marred by fraud, accusing protesters against his rule of seeking to usurp power. “We won in an open and honest fight,” Putin said in front of thousands of supporters near the Kremlin last night as tears streamed down his face. “We showed that our people can easily distinguish between a desire for novelty and renewal from political provocations which have only one goal: to destroy Russian statehood and usurp power.”
• Jailed Lawmakers Rule India in Corrupt System. Mukhtar Ansari has been in jail since 2005, charged with ordering a rival’s murder by hit men who pumped 400 bullets into the victim’s car. He doesn’t expect that or more than 30 other charges to bounce him out of his day job as a state legislator.
• Syrian Army Battles Armed Fighters in Daraa After Subduing Homs, 70 Dead. Syrian army troops battled opposition fighters in the south of the country two days after the government regained control of the Baba Amr district in the central city of Homs.

Wall Street Journal:

• Romney, Toughening Stance, Would Repeal Sarbanes-Oxley. Mitt Romney pledged during a campaign event Saturday to repeal the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate accounting overhaul. After Mr. Romney vowed to repeal President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul and the Dodd-Frank financial regulation law, a voter in the crowd asked whether his list of repeals would include Sarbanes-Oxley, as well. “Yes,” Mr. Romney said. “People who have spent their life in Washington in many cases … don’t understand that when they write a piece of legislation what kind of impact that’s going to have in the private sector, how many people’s lives will be affected by it.” The candidate took his plans a step further this weekend. “These legislative monsters that have been created kill jobs,” Mr. Romney said.
• Lenders Stress Over Test Results. Some very large banks are clashing with the Federal Reserve over how much detail the central bank will reveal about them when it releases the results of its latest stress test. The 19 biggest U.S. banks in January submitted reams of data in response to regulators' questions, outlining how they would perform in a severe downturn. Now, citing competitive concerns, bankers are pressing the Fed to limit its release of information—expected as early as next week—to what was published after the first test of big banks in 2009. The Clearing House Association, a lobbying group owned by units of companies such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co., warned in a letter this month to the Fed that making the additional information public "could have unanticipated and potentially unwarranted and negative consequences to covered companies and U.S. financial markets." Government officials aren't backing down from their plan to publish detailed projections of how the biggest lenders would fare in a steep economic downturn lasting two years. Regulators view full disclosure as critical to assuaging investor concerns about banks' capacity to withstand a market shock or economic setback.
• Al Qaeda is Blamed For Attack in Yemen. At least 35 Yemeni soldiers were killed Sunday in an attack by al Qaeda-linked fighters that began with twin suicide bombings, medical officials said, continuing a wave of attacks launched since a new president took office vowing to fight the group. A Yemeni army officer said at least 20 Islamist militants also died in the fighting in the country's unstable south, located near Red Sea oil-shipping routes. The militants overran a military base after the bombings, capturing heavy weapons and turning them on soldiers, officials said.
• AIG(AIG) to Sell $6 Billion In Asian Insurer's Stock. American International Group Inc. kicked off a $6 billion sale of shares in Asian life insurer AIA Group Ltd. on Monday morning in Hong Kong, moving forward with plans to repay another chunk of its 2008 U.S. bailout.
• Fed Takes a Break to Weigh Outlook. The Federal Reserve is pausing after a six-month campaign to boost growth, while policy makers assess a puzzling economic outlook. Fed officials meeting next week are unlikely to take any new actions to spur the recovery, and they are likely to emerge with a slightly more upbeat—but still very guarded—assessment of the economy's performance. This comes after a series of moves in recent months, including recasting its securities portfolio in January as a way to spur growth. Then the central bank signaled in January that short-term interest rates are likely to stay near zero through most of 2014.
• States Assess Twisters' Wrath. The twister Friday destroyed nearly all of the roughly 30 homes in the center of Marysville, which sprouted up 140 years ago around a train station. Although no one died, the storm scattered pieces of homes across miles of surrounding farmland, peeled the roof from Marysville's community center, and shifted the town's only church off its foundation.
• The 60th ObamaCare Vote. A soon-to-be released report shows how rogue prosecutors defeated Ted Stevens.

Marketwatch.com:

• China Sovereign Wealth Fund Gets $30 Billion Boost. China Investment Corp. recently received $30 billion from the Chinese government, according to published reports.
• China's Commodity Demand Declining: Credit Suisse. The commodity super-cycle underpinned by China has drawn to a close, according to new research by Credit Suisse, which says the Chinese commodity needs have peaked as the nation transitions to domestic consumption and away from exports and infrastructure building as a driver of the economy. Credit Suisse analyst Dong Tao said the shift is part of China's changing industrialization model and a slower-growth era ahead.

Business Insider:

• Obama Could Try A Bombshell Middle-Class Tax Hike After The 2012 Election. In a new column at The Daily Beast, writer Noam Scheiber reveals that Obama could be willing to let ALL the Bush tax cuts expire in his second term -- not just the tax cuts on the rich.
• Nomura: Oil Prices Are In The Danger Zone. (graph)
• Mauldin: Europe Is Now Creating Big Unintended Consequences That Will Carry Disastrous Outcomes.
• Stunning Pictures of Tornado Devastation In Middle America.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Oops: ECB Says Greek PSI Participation May Fall Short, As Troika Expects Third Greek Bailout.
• North Korea Has Allegedly Tested Nuclear Warheads For Iran.
• According to Reuters, Soaring Energy Prices Are A Good Thing.
  

CNBC:

• 'The Lorax' Brings Green Controversy and Green at the Box Office. The Lorax, is about a character with a giant mustache trying to protect his forest and all its animals from a factory. Since the book was published in 1971, it's been characterized as an environmental tale and attacked for turning kids against business. Lou Dobbs famously banged this drum on his show on Fox, saying Universal is anti-business.
• Apple's(AAPL) App Store Tops 25 Billion Downloads. More than 25 billion apps have been downloaded from Apple’s App Store, the company has announced, in a milestone that highlights the shift to a new model for computing, digital content, software and the web.

IBD:

• Guidewire(GWRE) Catches Fire In Property Casualty Market.

NY Times:

• Greek Official Warns Debt Holdouts. For the hedge funds who are looking to sue Greece instead of taking a 75 percent loss on their bonds, the head of Greece’s debt management agency has some blunt advice: Think twice before racking up those big legal bills. “There is just no money for holdouts,” said Petros Christodoulou, who has been at the forefront of Greece’s debt restructuring process since it began last summer. “We are prepared for legal challenges but the risk here is that people are trying to be too smart.”

CNN:

• Gas Prices Climb Again, Topping $3.76. The nationwide average for gasoline prices rose for the 26th straight day Sunday, topping the $3.76-a-gallon mark, according to the motorist group AAA. The average price of regular unleaded gasoline climbed 0.7 cent in the latest 24-hour period. The price of gas is up from $3.47 a month ago and $3.69 a week ago. Last year at this time, gas was $3.49 a gallon.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends).
  

Chicago Tribune:

• JPMorgan(JPM) Star Trader Set to Start Hedge Fund. A team of top proprietary traders at JPMorgan Chase & Co is set to launch what is likely to be one of the largest hedge fund start-ups in 2012, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. London-based Mike Stewart, JPMorgan's global head of proprietary trading and former head of emerging markets, is expected to start his own hedge fund, Whard Stewart, in the second quarter, the FT cited people familiar with his plans as saying.
  

Reuters:

• IMO Set to Collide With EU Over Vessel CO2 Emissions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is making little headway on market-based measures to curb carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping, putting it on a policy collision course with the European Union, observers said. An IMO spokeswoman said discussions on market-based measures, such as a levy on CO2 emissions and a cap-and-trade scheme, will resume in October when the Marine Environment Protection Committee meets again. International shipping accounts for around 3 percent of the world's emissions of the greenhouse gas that is widely blamed for global warming, and this share could go to 18 percent by 2050 if regulation is not in place, according to the IMO. The European Union executive of the 27-nation European Union bloc has threatened to enforce its own shipping regulations if the IMO fails to act, as it has with aviation.
• China Boosts Defense Budget 11% After U.S. "pivot". China will boost military spending by 11.2 percent this year, the government said on Sunday, unveiling Beijing's first defense budget since President Barack Obama launched a policy "pivot" to reinforce U.S. influence across the Asia-Pacific. The increase announced by parliament spokesman Li Zhaoxing will bring official outlays on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to 670.3 billion yuan ($110 billion) for 2012, after a 12.7 percent increase last year and a near-unbroken string of double-digit rises across two decades. Beijing's public budget is widely thought by foreign experts to undercount its real spending on military modernization, which has unnerved Asian neighbors and drawn repeated calls from Washington for China to share more about its intentions.

Financial Times:

• ECB Loans 'Could Harm' Debt Market. Fears are growing that a European initiative to underpin banks by offering them cheap medium-term funding could lead to a sharp contraction in corporate debt markets.

The Telegraph:

• Greece Bubbles Towards a Third Bailout and Boiling Point.
  

Der Spiegel:

• The European Central Bank is alarmed by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann's criticism of mounting Target-2 imbalances, citing officials at the "top" of the ECB. Weidmann's criticism amounts to an admission that the Bundesbank doesn't rule out a break-up of the euro area, because Target-2 imbalances would only become a problem if the monetary union collapsed, the ECB officials said. Weidmann warned ECB President Mario Draghi about growing risks in a letter on Feb. 29.
• European Central Bank council member Jens Weidmann is concerned about the quality of the collateral the ECB has accepted from banks in return for three-year loans. The conditions for the loans have become "very generous," Weidmann said. "The program has a calming effect in the short term, but it's a calm that could be deceptive," he said. Weidmann, who heads Germany's Bundesbank, said euro-area central bans are taking "substantial risks" onto their balance sheets and the loans are "at the limits" of the Eurosystem's mandate. He wants the collateral rules to be tightened as soon as possible.
  

China Times:

• The central government plans to expand property taxes to more cities year by year, with 3-5 more this year, citing an official at the State Administration of Taxation. All tier 1, 2 cities have met the technical requirements for property taxes, citing the official. The Housing ministry wants the tax to cover cities beyond major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Financial News:

• China should be cautious on interest rate liberalization as the financing cost for small and medium-sized companies may rise as a result, citing Ma Jing, an official at the People's Bank of China.

China Economic Net:

• Housing Policies Should Not Be Relaxed. Over-speculation in the real estate market supported by a loose credit policy from 2009 to 2011 created a huge property bubble. Responding to the public's concerns, the government has sought to return property prices to a rational level by introducing regulatory measures. However, the more bite the policies have had, the more barriers they have encountered, especially when sales declined recently and housing prices in some cities started to fall. Although the NPC and CPPCC this year will be an important venue for these lobbyists, it is encouraging that the government's approach to the real estate market is unlikely to change this year. The government is expected to continue its policies aimed at curbing speculation and over-investment, thereby regulating property prices down to rational levels. Local governments and real estate developers would do better to change their policies, as it is wishful thinking to try and keep prices high based on the belief that the "rigid demand" of first-time buyers and people's desire to move up the property ladder mean that demand will always exceed supply. It will be hard for them to realize this supposed demand because at the current price levels it is mainly speculators that are entering the market. Most non-speculative consumers are either waiting for prices to fall to more reasonable levels or, as is more often the case, they simply cannot afford to buy any at the current prices. Even when the developers do make offers to lighten the burden for non-speculative buyers, these offers are not enough to enable buyers to either enter the market or move up the property ladder.
  

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Made positive comments on (VRSK), (CNX), (WPX) and (TIF).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 160.50 +3.5 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 130.5 -1.0 basis point.
• FTSE-100 futures -.33%.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.30%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (PAY)/.52
• (ABM)/.22
• (EEP)/.38

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• ISM Non-Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 56.2 versus 56.8 in January.
• Factory Orders for January are estimated to fall -1.5% versus a +1.1% gain in December.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA Rate Decision, Cowen Health Care Conference, BofA Merrill Refining Conference, Sandler O'Neill Financial Services Conference and the (COP) Investor Update could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on profit-taking, global growth fears, Eurozone debt angst, technical selling, more shorting and rising energy prices. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,369.63 +.29%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,369.63 +.29%
  
• DJIA 12,977.50 -.04%
  
• NASDAQ 2,976.19 +.42%
  
• Russell 2000 802.42 -2.96%
  
• Wilshire 5000 14,238.0 -.05%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 645.27 +.25%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 674.44 +.14%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 783.07 +.20%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,019.30 +.82%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 685.83 -.97%
  
• Transports 5,160.13 +.41%
  
• Utilities 453.75 +.09%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.51 +1.22%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,030.76 +.80%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 832.76 +.68%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 538.76 -1.31%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 144,871 +.25%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 220 +31
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 56.0 +30.2%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 254,559 +11.56%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,517,833 +5.29%
  
• Total Put/Call .91 -16.51%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.41 +18.49%
  
• ISE Sentiment 95.0 +46.15%
  
• NYSE Arms .99 -11.61%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 17.29 -.12%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 70.67 -1.0%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.14 +4.43%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,801.42 +.90%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.666 Trillion +.2%
  
• AAII % Bulls 44.51 +1.88%
  
• AAII % Bears 26.83 -2.47%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 321.17 -1.45%
  
• Crude Oil 106.70 -2.79%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 327.2 -1.21%
  
• Natural Gas 2.48 -7.95%
  
• Heating Oil 320.18 -2.93%
  
• Gold 1,709.80 -3.50%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 229.04 +.92%
  
• Copper 390.30 +1.05%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 404.67 USD/Ton +.75%
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 143.20 USD/Ton +3.02%
  
• Lumber 280.10 -.89%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,557.52 +1.59%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.0% +50 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1064 -5.09%
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 107.56 +.23%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.10 -12.9 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 44.0% chance of no change, 56.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/13
  
• US Dollar Index 79.40 +1.32%
  
• Yield Curve 170.0 +3 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.97% -1 basis point
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.908 Trillion -.22%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.70 -3.0%
  
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 227.0 -4.79%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 346.38 +.06%
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 214.0 -6.96%
  
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.66 -6.98%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 81.10 +4.13%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 605.0 -22 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24% -4 basis points
  
• TED Spread 41.50 +1.5 basis points
  
• 3-Month Euribor/OIS Spread 61.0 -4.5 basis points
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -72.50 -.5 basis point
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 94.20 -1.66%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 161.69 -7.81%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 237.81 -5.79%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 177.0 -7 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $2.222 Trillion -.31%
  
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 927.20 -1.10%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 354,000 -1.50%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.7% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.90% -5 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 763.60 -.33%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -38.8 -.4 point
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.90% +20 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.74/gallon +.09/gallon
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 17.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 763.0 +8.07%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 unch.
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 214,402 -2.99%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.25%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -3.0%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +2.23%
  
• Banks +1.99%
  
• I-Banks +1.43%
• Gaming +1.33%
• Software +1.18%

Lagging Sectors

• Gold & Silver -3.0%
• Networking -4.96%
  
• Alternative Energy -5.32%
• Coal -8.92%
• Education -14.91%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (23)

• PEGA, KCP, VVUS, CCO, DPZ, LXU, KNOL, CRI, ZAGG, AMED, LIZ, CPRT, NDSN, CYBX, CLGX, CTB, Y, TESO, HEES, ITT, KDN, SZYM and TRH
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (33)

• OPLK, GXP, EBS, MKTG, RPM, AMSF, GPRE, DY, FRC, MMSI, GNTX, PCS, FNSR, BMI, FCN, FPO, TTEC, EIG, DUF, APEI, CVC, LAYN, HSII, FDP, GRC, GIFI, DECK, INT, APOL, KND, SYKE, BCPC and VOCS
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, High Energy Prices, Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Most Declining
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.49 +1.33%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -15.65%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -8.91%
  
• NYSE Arms .90 +8.55%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.20 +1.30%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 161.62 +.45%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 346.0 +1.47%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.07 -1.91%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -1.25 bps
  
• TED Spread 41.50 +.5 bp
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -72.50 -.25 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 bp
  
• Yield Curve 171.0 -2 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $143.20/Metric Tonne unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.10 unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -4 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +13 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Retail sector longs and index hedges
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish, as the S&P 500 trades lower on rising Eurozone debt angst, high energy prices, global growth fears, technical selling and profit-taking. On the positive side, Utility, Computer Service and Retail shares are slightly higher on the day. Oil is falling -2.3%. Major Asian indices rose around +.75% overnight, led by a +1.4% gain in Shanghai despite reports that China will stem any new property easing by local governments and some talk of Asian central bank tightening before year-end. Major European indices were mixed today, with the Bloomberg European Financial Services/Bank Index rising +.60%. The Brazil sovereign cds is falling -2.6% to 133.40 bps, the Saudi sovereign cds is down -3.9% to 132.66 bps and the Japan sovereign cds is down -2.78% to 116.94 bps. On the negative side, Education, Road & Rail, HMO, Hospital, Oil Service, Coal, Alt Energy, Construction, I-Banking, Networking, Semi, Energy and Oil Tanker shares are under pressure, falling more than -1.0%. Small-caps are relatively weak again. Copper is falling -.50%. The 10Y T-Note Yield at 1.98%, remains a concern considering the recent stock rally, falling Eurozone debt angst and improvement in US economic data. Despite the recent positive US economic data, the Philly Fed/ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index has declined -5.08% over the last 5 days and continues to trend lower from its peak in mid-December. Lumber is -4.0% since its Dec. 29th high despite the better US economic data, more dovish Fed commentary, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, equity rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the weekly MBA Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged over -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down over -50.0% ytd. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still fairly close to its Jan. 9th all-time high. Overall, credit gauge improvement has stalled over the last few weeks and these gauges are still at stressed levels. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -21.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up +707.0% ytd and are still very near their recent all-time high. I still think this is more of a red flag for falling demand rather than the intentional hoarding, which many suggest. The euro currency has traded poorly over the last 3 days. Shares of Yelp(YELP) are soaring +65% today, giving the company a $1.5B market cap. I would not be a buyer anywhere near current levels and this stock’s performance today is another red flag regarding investor sentiment, in my opinion. The Transports, while underperforming today, have outperformed for the week, rising +.97%. However the MS Tech Index underperformed for the week, falling -.63%, despite a +4.6% gain in Apple(AAPL) shares. Stocks are short-term overbought and still near intermediate-term resistance. I would become more aggressive on the long-side after further sideways action and then a convincing break above DJIA 13K and Naz 3K. For an intermediate-term equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, a further subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, high energy prices, global growth fears, technical selling and profit-taking.